NCAA Tournament Hosting Picture: One new host emerges as race tightens up
This past weekend was full of upsets across college baseball, leading to changes in the postseason picture. On Monday, we released our updated Field of 64 projections with a couple of changes in how we project the 16 NCAA Tournament hosts.
In last week’s projections, we had South Carolina hosting. This week, they fell out in favor of Mississippi State. That’s the only change in terms of the 16 hosts, though the order looks different this time around.
Both Texas A&M and Arkansas lost series this past weekend, though the Aggies stayed in our top overall seed. The Razorbacks fell from No. 2 to No. 4. The most notable change in order, though, was Georgia rising into the top eight. The Bulldogs entered the hosting race for us last week as the No. 15 overall seed. This week, they are all the way up to No. 8 and would host a potential super regional after sweeping Vanderbilt.
As the regular season’s end nears, the race to host in the NCAA Tournament is far from over. The list of contenders has shortened, though, while there are still plenty of teams vying for the coveted top 16 seed.
Current projected top eight seeds
Texas A&M, Kentucky, Clemson, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida State, Georgia
While Texas A&M lost their weekend series to LSU, the Aggies remain in line to host as the top overall seed. Sitting at 40-8 overall and 16-8 in the SEC, they also are currently No. 1 in RPI. Texas A&M is at Ole Miss this weekend in a series they need to win. After that, the series against Arkansas will loom large on the ultimate seeding. But right now, the Aggies are still in line to be the top seed.
Kentucky soared up to the No. 2 overall host in this week’s projected NCAA Tournament after winning a series over Arkansas. At 35-10, Kentucky also currently leads the SEC at 18-6 and sit at No. 2 in RPI. The Wildcats finish at Florida and vs. Vanderbilt, two series they will be favored to win.
Clemson and Arkansas are still very much in play for a top seed. The Tigers are 36-10 overall, 17-7 in the ACC and No. 4 in RPI. They are at Wake Forest this weekend, and that result will be pivotal for Clemson’s chances at hosting as a top three seed. They then finish at home against Boston College. Arkansas is 40-9 overall and 17-7 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI. They have a tough finish with series vs. Mississippi State and at Texas A&M, but the Razorbacks already have a strong resume and should be in the clear to be a top eight seed.
After the top four, it’s a tight race to fill out the remaining top eight seeds. Tennessee comes in at No. 5 at 39-9 overall, 17-7 in the SEC and No. 8 in RPI. They finish at Vanderbilt and vs. South Carolina, and are a top eight lock if they win both of those. North Carolina is 35-11 overall and currently tied atop the ACC at 17-7. They are No. 6 in RPI and finish vs. Louisville and at Duke, with that final weekend looming large on the top eight picture. Florida State and Georgia round out the top eight. The Seminoles are 35-10, 14-9 and No. 7 in RPI with series left at Pitt and vs. Georgia Tech. Sweeps would be ideal for a top eight seed. The Bulldogs soared up to No. 8 this week, as they are 35-12, 13-11 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI. This weekend’s series at South Carolina is must-win for Georgia’s top eight chances, though they are a very likely host regardless.
Just short of top eight
East Carolina has been a top eight host in our projected NCAA Tournament for a few weeks, but the Pirates fall out after going 2-1 against USF. While they won the weekend, and the loss came by a single run in the back half of a doubleheader on Sunday with a depleted pitching staff, ECU can’t afford many AAC losses due to their RPI. Sitting at 37-9 overall, 16-5 in the AAC and No. 9 in RPI, ECU needs to be just about perfect the rest of the way to finish top eight. They host Duke in a midweek on Tuesday and finish at Tulane and vs. Rice.
Oregon State again comes in just outside of the top eight at No. 10 overall. The Beavers are 35-12, 14-9 in the Pac-12 and No. 15 in RPI. That RPI just isn’t good enough for a top eight seed, though they could still play their way there. Oregon State should beat UCLA this weekend, and the last weekend at Arizona will be pivotal for their top eight chances. It would be surprising to see the Beavers fall out of the hosting picture, but top eight will not be easy.
Remaining projected hosts
Indiana State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Duke
Indiana State comes in as our No. 11 host in this week’s NCAA Tournament, and that feels like their ceiling. The Sycamores are 34-10 overall, 17-4 in the Missouri Valley and No. 10 in RPI, but that RPI is likely to fall with remaining weekends against Evansville and at Valparaiso. They are likely to finish in the 11-13 range, and can’t afford a series loss due to the RPI hit that would bring.
Next, we have a pair of ACC clubs. Wake Forest is No. 12, and is an interesting team in the hosting race. The Demon Deacons are 32-16, 12-12 in the ACC and No. 11 in RPI, but finish with Clemson and at NC State. If Wake Forest splits those series, 15-15 in ACC play might not be quite enough to host. But right now we expect them to do just enough to get the nod. Virginia is 35-12, 14-10 in the ACC and No. 12 in RPI. Finishing the year with NC State and Virginia Tech, Virginia feels like a safe bet to get to at least 17 ACC wins which would keep them safely in the hosting discussion.
Oklahoma had a big week, sweeping Texas Tech on the road and taking control of the Big 12 race. The Sooners are 29-17 overall and 18-6 in Big 12 play, sitting at No. 17 in RPI. If they hold on in the Big 12, it’d be surprising to not see Oklahoma hosting in the NCAA Tournament. Behind them is Mississippi State, who has entered the hosting discussion at 32-16 overall, 14-10 in the SEC and No. 17 in RPI. The Bulldogs are at Arkansas this weekend, and they’d like to take at least a game there. They’ll then need to sweep Missouri to end the regular season. If they get to 17 SEC wins, they’re likely hosting.
Other hosting contenders
South Carolina, UC Santa Barbara, Dallas Baptist, NC State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Alabama
South Carolina was a very difficult cut from this week’s projected NCAA Tournament hosts. The Gamecocks are 32-15, 13-11 in the SEC and No. 13 in RPI. They just have a tough end to the season. If South Carolina wins the series this weekend against Georgia, they’ll be back hosting next week and likely towards the top ten. If they lose, and then don’t win the series at Tennessee, they just might get overpassed by a suddenly strong field of contenders.
UC Santa Barbara is also right there in the mix as our projected Big West winner. They are 31-12 overall and 17-4 in the Big West, but No. 16 in RPI. UCSB has a road series at Cal State Northridge next weekend, but it’s sandwiched between Cal State Bakersfield (RPI 285) and UC Riverside (RPI 267). They’ll lose RPI points for winning those games, and likely will end in the low to mid 20s by the end of the year. UCSB can’t be counted out, though, they just might need some help.
Dallas Baptist, NC State and Oklahoma State were also tough cuts. Dallas Baptist is now 34-12, 12-6 in CUSA and No. 20 in RPI. They finish with Liberty (RPI 114) and at MIddle Tennessee (RPI 223), so the margin of error is zero. But if Dallas Baptist wins those, takes the CUSA crown and gets some help by other teams losing? They’ll be in the mix. NC State is right there too at 26-18, 13-10 in the ACC and No. 19 in RPI. The Wolfpack are fighting injuries, but finish at Virginia and vs. Wake Forest. Win those series and it’ll likely be enough to host. Oklahoma State has been right there in the mix for a while, but falling at Texas over the weekend was tough. They are 32-16 overall and 15-9 in the Big 12, but now No. 24 in RPI. They finish with Texas Tech and at Houston, which gives them a path to win enough to get consideration.
Nebraska and Alabama still feel somewhat alive, though rather unlikely. Nebraska is 30-16 overall, 12-6 in the Big Ten and No. 21 in RPI. The Cornhuskers could win the Big Ten with series left against Indiana and at Michigan State, but they will need a lot of teams ahead of them to lose. Alabama is 29-18 overall, 10-14 in the SEC and No. 14 in RPI. The Crimson Tide face LSU this weekend and finish at Auburn, giving them a chance for two more series wins. If they can sweep both, 16-14 might be enough to host. Anything short of that might be too far off.