NCAA Tournament Futures: Forecasting the Final Four

We’re one step closer to the Final Four in Phoenix. This weekend 12 teams will be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. Even though you may be unsure if Purdue can cover a 5.5-point spread against Gonzaga, you can still profit by looking ahead to Phoenix.

A few years ago Final Four futures became my favorite way to wager after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Betting on who will make the Final Four is a way to find value, especially for teams that are overwhelming favorites. Houston will be a moneyline favorite in each of its next two games, but you can get the Cougars today at +100 to make a trip to Phoenix.

Let’s handicap each region to find the best value on FanDuel ahead of the penultimate weekend of college basketball.

East Region

Uconn -230
Iowa State +420
Illinois +600
San Diego State +1200

Once the bracket was released, I encouraged the KSR audience to avoid penciling in UConn to the Final Four. Even though they’ve looked dominant, they’re too popular to set yourself apart in a bracket pool. Predicting an early upset is the best strategy to win big and I’m sticking to it.

Even though UConn will likely roll in its NCAA Championship rematch against San Diego State, another team at the bottom of the bracket has looked almost as dominant over the last two weeks. Illinois won the Big Ten Tournament, then easily dispatched Morehead State and Duquesne, scoring 85+ points in each win. The Fighting Illini has a terrific tandem that’s capable of outscoring Iowa State and eliminating UConn.

West Region

Arizona +110
North Carolina +180
Alabama +410
Clemson +950

The West Region appeared wide open, yet three of the top four seeds survived to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. I still am struggling to handicap what will happen next, but history tells us Arizona will not get to end its season in its home state. Are you willing to wager on UNC to win two more games? Or is this the region where we finally see some big upsets in the NCAA Tournament?

South Region

Houston +100
Marquette +200
Duke +350
NC State +100

Kelvin Sampson’s squad has an incredibly high floor because of its suffocating defense. It was put to the test against Texas A&M. They proved in that second round scare that they are capable of surviving, even when the entire team is in foul trouble. To go on a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, you have to be able to win even when you aren’t playing your best basketball and that is why I’m rolling the dice with Houston.

Midwest Region

Purdue +120
Tennessee +210
Creighton +450
Gonzaga +500

The sports world loves a good redemption story and Purdue could provide that by doing exactly what Virginia did after they lost to a No. 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve looked good, but would any be surprised if they were knocked out by Gonzaga? Mark Few’s squad has enough length inside to bother Zach Edey and the offense has turned a corner since their win at Kentucky.

There’s another redemption arc people aren’t talking about. Only 32 seconds remained when Creighton tied the game against San Diego State in last year’s Elite Eight. That one-point loss is the perfect fuel for a Final Four run. Like Houston, Creighton wasn’t at their best, particularly from behind the three-point line, yet still survived a double overtime scare against Oregon. They’re capable of getting hot vs. Tennessee and have an equally imposing big in Ryan Kalkbrenner that could give Edey fits in the Elite Eight. I loved the Bluejays before the NCAA Tournament and my mind has not changed.

Sweet 16 Schedule

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video. Add on your favorite channels and watch at home or at work!

Thursday

7:09: (6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona, CBS
7:39: (5) San Diego State vs. (1) UConn, TBS
9:40: (4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina, CVBS
10:10: (3) Illinois vs (2) Iowa State, TBS

Friday

7:09: (11) NC State vs. (2) Marquette, CBS
7:39: (5) Gonzaga vs. (1) Purdue, TBS
9:40: (4) Duke vs. (1) Houston, CBS
10:10: (3) Creighton) vs. (2) Tennessee, TBS