PREVIEW: Kentucky closes regular season against Vanderbilt
On the cusp of its potentially second ever SEC Regular Season championship, No. 2 Kentucky closes its record-breaking regular season this weekend at home against Vanderbilt.
The Cats enter the final weekend one game ahead (20-7) of No. 1 Tennessee and No. 3 Arkansas (19-8) atop the SEC. If Kentucky wins at least two of three over the Commodores, they can clinch at least a share of the conference no matter what the Vols and Hogs do this weekend.
A sweep would ensure Kentucky’s first outright SEC crown in program history.
For the third consecutive series however, the Cats are fighting against history. Kentucky has lost five consecutive series to Vanderbilt, with its last series win coming in 2017 (Nick Mingione’s first season). In that span, Vanderbilt has won 14 of the last 19 matchups.
Kentucky has won its last two series, which were against No. 3 Arkansas and Florida. Prior to those two series, the Cats hadn’t won a series over Arkansas since 2012 (11 seasons) and Florida since 2016 (seven seasons). They’ll look to continue breaking streaks and making more history this weekend, as just one win would cement the program record for conference wins in a season (21).
Buckle up, because these next few weeks are going to be one wild ride.
Vanderbilt (34-18, 12-15)
The last month of the season has not been kind to the Commodores, as Vanderbilt enters the final weekend 2-8 in its last 10 SEC games. In the span of just three weeks, they’ve dropped from No. 11 in the country to unranked.
Much like it was for Florida last weekend, Vanderbilt’s series against Kentucky is seen as a must-win in the eyes of Commodore fans. At just 12 conference wins, they’re teetering on the danger zone of missing their first NCAA Tournament since 2005.
Vanderbilt is currently projected as a No. 3 seed in the Winston-Salem (Wake Forest) Region in D1Baseball’s Latest Field of 64 Projections.
They’ve however had a brutal slate of opponents, as their last five SEC series were against No. 1 Tennessee, No. 9 Georgia, No. 16 Mississippi State, Florida, and No. 5 Texas A&M. Vanderbilt won just one of those series (Florida).
Vanderbilt is a very talented squad, led by sophomore second baseman Jayden Davis (.319 BA, 12 doubles, 35 RBI), sophomore first baseman RJ Austin (.312 BA, five home runs, 49 RBI), and junior outfielder Matthew Polk (.305 BA, five home runs, 18 RBI). The Commodores .284 team batting average ranks seventh in the SEC.
Although they don’t hit home runs (13th out of 14th in SEC), they do steal bases. Vanderbilt’s 84 stolen bases ranks just behind Kentucky’s 99. RJ Austin’s 23 are tied for second most in the SEC.
Right-hander Bryce Cunningham (6-3, 4.33 ERA) and left-hander Carter Holton (6-3, 4.66 ERA) will start the first two games of the weekend for Vandy, while Sunday’s starter is still TBA.
Cunningham has allowed seven earned runs in his last 9 2/3 innings pitched (6.85 ERA), while Holton has allowed 11 earned in his last 13 innings (7.62 ERA). The Vanderbilt pitching staff, which boasts a 5.72 team ERA in SEC play, has been roughed up a bit entering the weekend.
Kentucky (37-11, 20-7)
After losing back-to-back series to No. 1 Tennessee and No. 24 South Carolina weeks ago, the college baseball world decided that Kentucky was finally coming back down to earth.
However, the Cats have responded with series victories over No. 3 Arkansas and Florida on the road. Bouncing back to earn these series wins have put Kentucky in a position to be potentially nab the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and the SEC Tournament for the first time in program history.
Grad transfers first baseman Ryan Nicholson and DH Nick Lopez were key cogs in Kentucky’s resilient series victory over Florida, as both propelled the Cats ahead in clutch situations.
Down two with two outs in the ninth in the series opener, Nicholson’s go-ahead three-run home run (his second of the game) put Kentucky ahead by one. After Florida sent the game to extras, Lopez knocked a three-run double down the right field line to give the Cats the win.
Nicholson has shined in conference play, as he’s hitting .314 with a .745 SLG% (fifth in SEC) and 14 home runs (tied for third in SEC). Lopez has stayed steady as well, batting .330 with 10 doubles (tied for second in the SEC).
Junior left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt continues to be one of the most consistent players in the conference. Waldschmidt, who has notched at least one hit in 22 of Kentucky’s 27 conference games, is hitting .387 against SEC competition (fourth in conference) with 42 hits (third in conference) and 10 doubles (tied for second in conference). Waldschmidt has put himself in position to potentially make the leap to the MLB Draft this offseason.
The offense is obviously there, as Kentucky’s .301 batting average against SEC competition is best in the conference. However, pitching continues to be a concern for Nick Mingione’s club.
“We’re at our best when we pitch and defend at a high level,” Mingione said. “Our focus for us this weekend would to make sure our opponents earn everything they’re going to get.”
Kentucky’s pitching snapped back to form in its series against Arkansas, but continued to struggled once again in its series victory over Florida. Over the three-game stretch, Kentucky’s team ERA was a dreadful 7.71. Its bullpen sported an even worse 9.73 ERA over 11 1/3 innings pitched.
Right-hander Mason Moore has been a bright light however, as he’s contributed two of his best starts of the season over the last two weeks. In 11 2/3 combined innings pitched against No. 3 Arkansas and Florida, Moore has given up just six hits and four earned runs while striking out 12 batters. If Kentucky were to play in a win-or-go home game in the next few weeks, last season’s Lexington Regional standout certainly looks like the choice on the bump.
Gearing up for Kentucky’s postseason run, bleachers were installed in left field at Kentucky Proud Park this week to increase capacity at the park. Those bleachers will be making their debut this weekend.
“I’m just so thankful for our fans that come out,” Mingione said. “They’re the reason why we’re having to do that, because more people are coming. That wouldn’t be possible without the ‘Big Blue Nation’ so we’re super thankful for our fans. We’re gonna need [the fans] again this weekend, but just to see that reminds me of 2017. It brought back a lot of memories.”
After this weekend, the Cats will be off to Hoover. If they can lock down the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, they’d play the winner of the 8/9 game on Wednesday at 3:30 p.m. EST.
Probable Starters
ALL-TIME SERIES: Vanderbilt leads 157-150-5
Game 1: Thursday, May 16, 2024 (Kentucky Proud Park – 6:30 p.m. EST) SEC Network+
UK: RHP Trey Pooser (3-1, 4.10 ERA) vs VAN: RHP Bryce Cunningham (6-3, 4.33 ERA)
Game 2: Friday, May 17, 2024 (Kentucky Proud Park – 6:30 p.m. EST) SEC Network+
UK: LHP Dominic Niman (8-4, 5.40 ERA) vs VAN: LHP Carter Holton (6-3, 4.66 ERA)
Game 3: Saturday, May 18, 2024 (Kentucky Proud Park – 12:00 p.m. EST) SEC Network
UK: RHP Mason Moore (8-1, 4.74 ERA) vs VAN: TBA
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