According to ESPIN, Football Power index says...

[YourCrimsonNightmare]

that the chances of these four teams winning the Big 12 this year are:

TCU 29.4%
OU 19.2%
BU 19%
OSU 3.8%

That's only 71.4%. I wonder how the other 28.6% is divided among the other 6 schools? According to this, the Big 12 should be quite a dog fight this year. I guess we'll see about that.

After ESPIN made of big deal of publicizing Baker's exploits, in the last two Heisman polls, he hasn't shown up among 20 players.

Guess the glow wore off. That's OK we'll keep him, if nobody minds...

 

[phillinois]

that the chances of these four teams winning the Big 12 this year are:

TCU 29.4%
OU 19.2%
BU 19%
OSU 3.8%

That's only 71.4%. I wonder how the other 28.6% is divided among the other 6 schools? According to this, the Big 12 should be quite a dog fight this year. I guess we'll see about that.

After ESPIN made of big deal of publicizing Baker's exploits, in the last two Heisman polls, he hasn't shown up among 20 players.

Guess the glow wore off. That's OK we'll keep him, if nobody minds...

Yep, I think B. Mayfields best days have yet to be seen.

He's pretty freakin' good.

 

[gtanduga]

that the chances of these four teams winning the Big 12 this year are:

TCU 29.4%
OU 19.2%
BU 19%
OSU 3.8%

That's only 71.4%. I wonder how the other 28.6% is divided among the other 6 schools? According to this, the Big 12 should be quite a dog fight this year. I guess we'll see about that.

After ESPIN made of big deal of publicizing Baker's exploits, in the last two Heisman polls, he hasn't shown up among 20 players.

Guess the glow wore off. That's OK we'll keep him, if nobody minds...

Agreed! I've been very pleased with Baker's play and feel confident that he'll just keep getting better as the season progresses.

 

[YourCrimsonNightmare]

I just did a bit of research, and they really missed on the numbers. Here are the real ones:

Baylor 47.6%
TCU 28.9%
OU 19%
OSU 3%
WVU 1.2%
KSU 0.3%
TTU 0%
UT 0%
ISU 0%
KU 0%

That's 100.0% total probability.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

 

[bdshull2001]

that the chances of these four teams winning the Big 12 this year are:

TCU 29.4%
OU 19.2%
BU 19%
OSU 3.8%

That's only 71.4%. I wonder how the other 28.6% is divided among the other 6 schools? According to this, the Big 12 should be quite a dog fight this year. I guess we'll see about that.

After ESPIN made of big deal of publicizing Baker's exploits, in the last two Heisman polls, he hasn't shown up among 20 players.

Guess the glow wore off. That's OK we'll keep him, if nobody minds...

That percentage doesn't even make sense. 28+ % divided by the rest of the six= 4.7% for each remaining team by my calculator and that's ahead of OSU's 3.8. Strange....

I have it Baylor 50 %, OU 25 %, TCU 20% and OSU 5%. I would have included WVU, but they have all the remaining big dogs on the road(except OSU).

Baylor is really good until we can beat them. TCU is banged up and unless they get back some players they will wear down......JMO

 

[glevans22]

I don't see anyone beating baylor

 

[YourCrimsonNightmare]

The question is whether or not OU can generate enough offense to overcome the times that Baylor doesn't drive for a score.

I don't think Baylor should be any more of a favorite than TCU or OU. TCU has a better defense (when healthy), and OU might well end up with a better defense than either one. And also may have a better quarterback, as anathema as that might seem.

There's a reason they play them.
.

 

[phillinois]

The question is whether or not OU can generate enough offense to overcome the times that Baylor doesn't drive for a score.

I don't think Baylor should be any more of a favorite than TCU or OU. TCU has a better defense (when healthy), and OU might well end up with a better defense than either one. And also may have a better quarterback, as anathema as that might seem.

There's a reason they play them.
.

Yep, lots of ifs, but this team is on a learning curve.
I've seen, and some of you will agree that this team has improved markedly since the trial by fire at Tennessee.

Lots of upside potential.
If the injury bug doesn't hit, OU could at least on paper position itself to be a force going into the daunting November games.
I feel pretty good about our prospects actually.

Then again, I've been accused of being a cockeyed optimist before...I get it.

 

[bdshull2001]

Yep, lots of ifs, but this team is on a learning curve.
I've seen, and some of you will agree that this team has improved markedly since the trial by fire at Tennessee.

Lots of upside potential.
If the injury bug doesn't hit, OU could at least on paper position itself to be a force going into the daunting November games.
I feel pretty good about our prospects actually.

Then again, I've been accused of being a cockeyed optimist before...I get it.

Did someone mention cockeye? HA!

 

[gtanduga]

The question is whether or not OU can generate enough offense to overcome the times that Baylor doesn't drive for a score.

I don't think Baylor should be any more of a favorite than TCU or OU. TCU has a better defense (when healthy), and OU might well end up with a better defense than either one. And also may have a better quarterback, as anathema as that might seem.

There's a reason they play them.
.

Nightmare, Good to see you back. Your most recent posts have been outstanding. Looking foward to the next one!

 

[ksigcajun]

Let's say the round robin of TCU/OU/BU ends up with three 1 loss teams (the following is conceivable: OU loses @BU, BU loses @TCU, TCU loses @OU). What is the mind-numbing conference tiebreaker formula this year? SOS? Highest ranked?

Besides OU (if UTenn bootstraps themselves and pulls off some upsets), would any 1 loss Big12 team go to the playoffs? Actually BU and TCU have already answered that - both Briles and Patterson were on College Football Live together this preseason and both admitted they had to go undefeated. That footage will be quickly brought up if a protest is uttered from either one of them. It was a stupid thing to admit to without qualifying it with "if all candidates only have 1 loss" since it is also conceivable that a 2 loss SEC team could be angling for the playoffs this year.

 

[YourCrimsonNightmare]

IF the conference title ended in a 3-way tie at 11-1, then it's likely that OU would have the inside track for whatever is available to a Big 12 team. If it's only for the auto bid to the conference champion, the team with the highest ranking in the football playoff rankings would get the conference bowl bid, or much less likely a berth in the playoff.

OU should finish ahead of Baylor and Tech due to a stronger non-conference schedule.

 

[Unconquered]

I personally think TCU loses to both Baylor and OU. The conference will come down to Baylor and OU. And I think Baylor is going to be in for an unpleasant surprise.

 

[RumphSquatch]

The question is whether or not OU can generate enough offense to overcome the times that Baylor doesn't drive for a score.

I don't think Baylor should be any more of a favorite than TCU or OU. TCU has a better defense (when healthy), and OU might well end up with a better defense than either one. And also may have a better quarterback, as anathema as that might seem.

There's a reason they play them.
.

I think this is right on...I was just reading an article somewhere that Art Briles was pleased with the playmakers he has now on defense...but I don't know what plays they have been making...

If, and it could be a huge if except it is at home, OU beats TCU, then the Baylor game should come down to OU's D vs Baylor's O and OU's O vs Baylor's D...it's going to come down to the number of drives OU's defense stops from their offense, and our offense being mature enough not to stop itself, and creativity of the offense game plan. If ever there was a game where you don't hold anything back...

 

[John Otterstedt]

If ever there was a game where you don't hold anything back...

Good point. If I were a coach, I'd be tempted to forego all logic and make the entire field 4-down territory. Keep the ball out of their hands at all cost. Baylor can score so quickly, why worry about making them go 80 yards or 20 yards to do it? Gamble that you can keep the drive alive and kill more clock. Run on first and second downs even if it's predictable. Kill the clock.
Who knows? Maybe you could frustrate their offense by not letting them on the field that they just meltdown and can't perform when they get a chance.

 

[YourCrimsonNightmare]

Excellent JC. There's no such thing as an unbeatable team. Shorten the game and gamble on fewer mistakes against a smaller sample of offense for each team. Gotta keep those sticks moving though. That's why I think OU is blessed to have a player like Baker in the driver's seat. He never seems to get fazed, and just that alone could have a big effect on their defensive AND offensive momentum.

The problem lesser teams have - moving the sticks - should be a main focus of this offense.

 

[CardX]

74% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[touchdowntexas]

I think this is right on...I was just reading an article somewhere that Art Briles was pleased with the playmakers he has now on defense...but I don't know what plays they have been making...

If, and it could be a huge if except it is at home, OU beats TCU, then the Baylor game should come down to OU's D vs Baylor's O and OU's O vs Baylor's D...it's going to come down to the number of drives OU's defense stops from their offense, and our offense being mature enough not to stop itself, and creativity of the offense game plan. If ever there was a game where you don't hold anything back...

It's going to be a little difficult to tell if that's the case though, seeing as how OU goes to Baylor the week before hosting TCU.

 

[RumphSquatch]

It's going to be a little difficult to tell if that's the case though, seeing as how OU goes to Baylor the week before hosting TCU.

Well, yes...that's what I meant...in the interest of message board accuracy, I am now engaged in writing letters to TCU and Baylor, urging them to swap weekends so that my point makes sense. I'll keep everyone posted.

 

[phillinois]

Well, yes...that's what I meant...in the interest of message board accuracy, I am now engaged in writing letters to TCU and Baylor, urging them to swap weekends so that my point makes sense. I'll keep everyone posted.

Oh man, I like your style!