For those of us wanting our next football fix after last night's big win, I give you an early look at our next opponent, Mizzou.
The Offense:
Mizzou runs a traditional--by modern standards--pro offense, generally lining up in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 HB, 1 TE). They employ typical run package with stretch, zone run, draw, power O plays. Most of the year, they've leaned on junior Ish Witter, but in recent games they've given true freshman Damarea Crockett more carries. Their pass game has a lot of straight drop (3 & 5 step) passes with occasional play action to keep defenses honest. The route tree is fairly traditional, utilizing the TE in the middle of the field in the vertical game, tall (around 6-3 or so) on the outside and shifty slot types on the inside. In Locke they have a highly touted pro-style quarterback with a big arm and slow legs. It is in many ways, as traditional as offenses get.
The one nontraditional aspect is the offense is their pace. Mizzou runs a staggering 80 plays on offense (1st in SEC, 11th in the country) per game. They've scored a lot of points, but is that the product of efficient offense or simply running a billion miles and hour? Their overall stats are somewhat misleading. Their yards per game, yards per play, and points per game all say "very good offense", but those numbers were built on wins over Delaware State and Eastern Michigan. Against quality opponents, they've looked pedestrian.
The Defense:
As far as scheme goes, not much as changed since the Pinkel years. Mizzou still runs a very traditional 4-3 defense. The DE's are the in the Michael Sam mode: undersized (around 260 lbs) quick, and built to attack. The DT's are big, +320 lbs run stuffers. The LB's are on the small side, but quick sideline to sideline. The secondary looks good getting off the bus, with big corners and athletic safeties, but has been gashed for big plays fairly frequently. On paper, the defense looks like a classic Lovie Smith cover 2 defense. Big tackles gum up the middle; fast ends push the edge into the QB's lap; speedy linebackers control the intermediate area and the flats; an athletic secondary controls deep areas. They employ a traditional "bend but don't break" philosophy; they will accept a certain measure of dink and dunk if they get a sack or interception. The idea is to get a turnover or big negative play and hope that the opponent lacks the consistency to put up long, methodical scoring drives.
Unlike Pinkel's defenses, though, this version of Mizzou's defense simply isn't very effective. They rank 89th in the country at 5.9 yards per play, even after playing two cupcakes. Their three most recent foes, LSU, Florida, and now Middle Tenn State, all put up at least forty points on them. Physical teams, ones that aren't afraid to run it right at them, manhandle them in the trenches. The fact that their offense keeps them on the field far too long can't help either.
The Skinny:
If you think that the environment around UK post Florida was toxic, take a gander at the venomous local press Mizzou is getting right now. In many ways, Mizzou fans were spoiled by the Pinkel regime. Pinkel built his Mizzou teams on pragmatic, efficient offenses and harassing defenses. He recruited under the radar, high character types and turned them into solid college players. Most of all, Pinkel was smart enough to have his teams play to their strengths. The current Mizzou squad does anything but play to their strengths. Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel seems to be hell-bent on running plays as fast as possible, leading to lots of three and outs and a gassed defense. Locke is built for a power running / vertical passing scheme; he is not all that accurate (51% completion) and struggles with quick decisions. In other words, he's the wrong guy for Heupel's fast-paced scheme which requires quick thinking and a high completion percentage in order to move the chains. Meanwhile, their defense has been demoralized by the power games of LSU and Florida, and now the spread game of MTSU.
Folks, all of this works out pretty well for UK. If I could draw a blueprint of the type of team that Mizzou does not want to play, UK would be pretty darn close. They struggle with the power run; the power run is our strength. We struggle with mobile QB's; their QB is a classic drop back guy. They struggle getting their defense off the field; we specialize in keeping our offense on the field. We struggle with big, physical defenses; they have a light, speedy defense.
Most of all, the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Mizzou went into the MTSU game thinking they had to win the next four to make a bowl. That hope is gone now. We could well see a team next Saturday on the verge of mailing it in. UK, on the other hand, is improving every week. If we manage our turnovers, we not only win, we win big.
Kentucky 38
Mizzou 17
The Offense:
Mizzou runs a traditional--by modern standards--pro offense, generally lining up in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 HB, 1 TE). They employ typical run package with stretch, zone run, draw, power O plays. Most of the year, they've leaned on junior Ish Witter, but in recent games they've given true freshman Damarea Crockett more carries. Their pass game has a lot of straight drop (3 & 5 step) passes with occasional play action to keep defenses honest. The route tree is fairly traditional, utilizing the TE in the middle of the field in the vertical game, tall (around 6-3 or so) on the outside and shifty slot types on the inside. In Locke they have a highly touted pro-style quarterback with a big arm and slow legs. It is in many ways, as traditional as offenses get.
The one nontraditional aspect is the offense is their pace. Mizzou runs a staggering 80 plays on offense (1st in SEC, 11th in the country) per game. They've scored a lot of points, but is that the product of efficient offense or simply running a billion miles and hour? Their overall stats are somewhat misleading. Their yards per game, yards per play, and points per game all say "very good offense", but those numbers were built on wins over Delaware State and Eastern Michigan. Against quality opponents, they've looked pedestrian.
The Defense:
As far as scheme goes, not much as changed since the Pinkel years. Mizzou still runs a very traditional 4-3 defense. The DE's are the in the Michael Sam mode: undersized (around 260 lbs) quick, and built to attack. The DT's are big, +320 lbs run stuffers. The LB's are on the small side, but quick sideline to sideline. The secondary looks good getting off the bus, with big corners and athletic safeties, but has been gashed for big plays fairly frequently. On paper, the defense looks like a classic Lovie Smith cover 2 defense. Big tackles gum up the middle; fast ends push the edge into the QB's lap; speedy linebackers control the intermediate area and the flats; an athletic secondary controls deep areas. They employ a traditional "bend but don't break" philosophy; they will accept a certain measure of dink and dunk if they get a sack or interception. The idea is to get a turnover or big negative play and hope that the opponent lacks the consistency to put up long, methodical scoring drives.
Unlike Pinkel's defenses, though, this version of Mizzou's defense simply isn't very effective. They rank 89th in the country at 5.9 yards per play, even after playing two cupcakes. Their three most recent foes, LSU, Florida, and now Middle Tenn State, all put up at least forty points on them. Physical teams, ones that aren't afraid to run it right at them, manhandle them in the trenches. The fact that their offense keeps them on the field far too long can't help either.
The Skinny:
If you think that the environment around UK post Florida was toxic, take a gander at the venomous local press Mizzou is getting right now. In many ways, Mizzou fans were spoiled by the Pinkel regime. Pinkel built his Mizzou teams on pragmatic, efficient offenses and harassing defenses. He recruited under the radar, high character types and turned them into solid college players. Most of all, Pinkel was smart enough to have his teams play to their strengths. The current Mizzou squad does anything but play to their strengths. Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel seems to be hell-bent on running plays as fast as possible, leading to lots of three and outs and a gassed defense. Locke is built for a power running / vertical passing scheme; he is not all that accurate (51% completion) and struggles with quick decisions. In other words, he's the wrong guy for Heupel's fast-paced scheme which requires quick thinking and a high completion percentage in order to move the chains. Meanwhile, their defense has been demoralized by the power games of LSU and Florida, and now the spread game of MTSU.
Folks, all of this works out pretty well for UK. If I could draw a blueprint of the type of team that Mizzou does not want to play, UK would be pretty darn close. They struggle with the power run; the power run is our strength. We struggle with mobile QB's; their QB is a classic drop back guy. They struggle getting their defense off the field; we specialize in keeping our offense on the field. We struggle with big, physical defenses; they have a light, speedy defense.
Most of all, the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Mizzou went into the MTSU game thinking they had to win the next four to make a bowl. That hope is gone now. We could well see a team next Saturday on the verge of mailing it in. UK, on the other hand, is improving every week. If we manage our turnovers, we not only win, we win big.
Kentucky 38
Mizzou 17
