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An Early Look at Mizzou

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docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
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LouievileKat said:
Im looking forward to seeing how well we run on Missouri. LSU went for over 400, Middle Tennessee went for 300. Of course Georgia barely managed 100 on 38 attempts.
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Mizzou may put everybody they got in the box and dare us to run or get a pass off. They will do everything they can to make Johnson beat them and see if he can
 
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allabouttheUK

All-Conference
Jan 28, 2015
3,079
3,390
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I have a feeling this is a game that UK puts together a complete offensive game. 250-300 on the ground and 250-300 through the air. Missouri is on life support and we can pull the plug. We have played better defenses this year and their offense is nothing great either.
 
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CapnBlubs

All-Conference
Jun 30, 2008
1,697
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81
As others have said...great writeup, but I highly doubt we win by 21. We rarely even beat Vandy by that much, even in the years when they're horrible.

Here are some sobering stats as far as that projection goes:

1) UK has only 1 SEC road win since 2009 (4 point win at South Carolina last year). Overall, a 1-25 road conference record during that span. Some of the Brooks teams were actually pretty decent on the road...especially '09 when all 3 of our league wins were away from home.

2) The last time UK beat any SEC team by 21 points or more was 2003 (beat MSU 42-7 at Commonwealth for our only SEC win of the year). Even in the bowl years from 2006-2010 we weren't doing that. There was an 18 point win over Vandy in 2010 and a 17 point win over Ole Miss in 2006.

3) The last time UK won an SEC road game by 21 or more was 2002 (won at MSU 45-24).

So I think we'll all take a 1 point win if we can get it. I'm excited that we've just managed 3 SEC wins of any sort already.
 
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allabouttheUK

All-Conference
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Saw an interesting write up about Missouri from a UM fan. They were talking about how the success under Pinkel wasn't the norm, and how he kind of spoiled them. The guy was mentioning the futility of the football program aside from those 15 or so years. My point is that the Missouri that entered the league isn't the real Missouri. They had a good coach for 15 years that maximized what he had, and now he is gone and they are starting all over again.
 
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WildcatofNati

Heisman
Mar 31, 2009
8,183
12,420
0
CapnBlubs said:
As others have said...great writeup, but I highly doubt we win by 21. We rarely even beat Vandy by that much, even in the years when they're horrible.

Here are some sobering stats as far as that projection goes:

1) UK has only 1 SEC road win since 2009 (4 point win at South Carolina last year). Overall, a 1-25 road conference record during that span. Some of the Brooks teams were actually pretty decent on the road...especially '09 when all 3 of our league wins were away from home.

2) The last time UK beat any SEC team by 21 points or more was 2003 (beat MSU 42-7 at Commonwealth for our only SEC win of the year). Even in the bowl years from 2006-2010 we weren't doing that. There was an 18 point win over Vandy in 2010 and a 17 point win over Ole Miss in 2006.

3) The last time UK won an SEC road game by 21 or more was 2002 (won at MSU 45-24).

So I think we'll all take a 1 point win if we can get it. I'm excited that we've just managed 3 SEC wins of any sort already.
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I had predicted a 3 point line for this spread, going either way, and it looks like I was wrong. Now that I think of it more, I still think we have a good chance to win this game, but I'm not surprised by the spread, and I actually think that we have a better chance to beat Georgia at home this year than we do to beat Mizzou on the road.
 
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BlueRattie_rivals

All-Conference
Feb 6, 2014
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katwest said:
BlueRattie, I love your optimism, but when was the last time Kentucky won big on the road against anybody, we could easily lost the three we won. I think it's a winnable game, but like someone said earlier, I'll take a one point win. I think it will be very close and am hoping for a win.
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I just have a sneaking suspicion that Mizzou is devolving into a dumpster fire and we're going to be the gasoline.
 
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BlueRattie_rivals

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adolph rollingover said:
Do you believe UK will be able to play in its Nickle package the majority of the snaps?
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Don't be surprised if Kentucky comes out in the "Amoeba" package:

-2 DE over the guards
-2 OLB's in a two point stance over the tackles
-2 ILB's in the middle of the field
-4 DB's

Gives UK max flexibility, and Mizzou's lack of a power running game makes leaving DT's off the field tolerable.
 
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BlueRattie_rivals

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BlueRattie said:
I just have a sneaking suspicion that Mizzou is devolving into a dumpster fire and we're going to be the gasoline.
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BlueRattie_rivals

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BlueRattie said:
For those of us wanting our next football fix after last night's big win, I give you an early look at our next opponent, Mizzou.


The Offense:

Mizzou runs a traditional--by modern standards--pro offense, generally lining up in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 HB, 1 TE). They employ typical run package with stretch, zone run, draw, power O plays. Most of the year, they've leaned on junior Ish Witter, but in recent games they've given true freshman Damarea Crockett more carries. Their pass game has a lot of straight drop (3 & 5 step) passes with occasional play action to keep defenses honest. The route tree is fairly traditional, utilizing the TE in the middle of the field in the vertical game, tall (around 6-3 or so) on the outside and shifty slot types on the inside. In Locke they have a highly touted pro-style quarterback with a big arm and slow legs. It is in many ways, as traditional as offenses get.

The one nontraditional aspect is the offense is their pace. Mizzou runs a staggering 80 plays on offense (1st in SEC, 11th in the country) per game. They've scored a lot of points, but is that the product of efficient offense or simply running a billion miles and hour? Their overall stats are somewhat misleading. Their yards per game, yards per play, and points per game all say "very good offense", but those numbers were built on wins over Delaware State and Eastern Michigan. Against quality opponents, they've looked pedestrian.

The Defense:

As far as scheme goes, not much as changed since the Pinkel years. Mizzou still runs a very traditional 4-3 defense. The DE's are the in the Michael Sam mode: undersized (around 260 lbs) quick, and built to attack. The DT's are big, +320 lbs run stuffers. The LB's are on the small side, but quick sideline to sideline. The secondary looks good getting off the bus, with big corners and athletic safeties, but has been gashed for big plays fairly frequently. On paper, the defense looks like a classic Lovie Smith cover 2 defense. Big tackles gum up the middle; fast ends push the edge into the QB's lap; speedy linebackers control the intermediate area and the flats; an athletic secondary controls deep areas. They employ a traditional "bend but don't break" philosophy; they will accept a certain measure of dink and dunk if they get a sack or interception. The idea is to get a turnover or big negative play and hope that the opponent lacks the consistency to put up long, methodical scoring drives.

Unlike Pinkel's defenses, though, this version of Mizzou's defense simply isn't very effective. They rank 89th in the country at 5.9 yards per play, even after playing two cupcakes. Their three most recent foes, LSU, Florida, and now Middle Tenn State, all put up at least forty points on them. Physical teams, ones that aren't afraid to run it right at them, manhandle them in the trenches. The fact that their offense keeps them on the field far too long can't help either.

The Skinny:

If you think that the environment around UK post Florida was toxic, take a gander at the venomous local press Mizzou is getting right now. In many ways, Mizzou fans were spoiled by the Pinkel regime. Pinkel built his Mizzou teams on pragmatic, efficient offenses and harassing defenses. He recruited under the radar, high character types and turned them into solid college players. Most of all, Pinkel was smart enough to have his teams play to their strengths. The current Mizzou squad does anything but play to their strengths. Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel seems to be hell-bent on running plays as fast as possible, leading to lots of three and outs and a gassed defense. Locke is built for a power running / vertical passing scheme; he is not all that accurate (51% completion) and struggles with quick decisions. In other words, he's the wrong guy for Heupel's fast-paced scheme which requires quick thinking and a high completion percentage in order to move the chains. Meanwhile, their defense has been demoralized by the power games of LSU and Florida, and now the spread game of MTSU.

Folks, all of this works out pretty well for UK. If I could draw a blueprint of the type of team that Mizzou does not want to play, UK would be pretty darn close. They struggle with the power run; the power run is our strength. We struggle with mobile QB's; their QB is a classic drop back guy. They struggle getting their defense off the field; we specialize in keeping our offense on the field. We struggle with big, physical defenses; they have a light, speedy defense.

Most of all, the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Mizzou went into the MTSU game thinking they had to win the next four to make a bowl. That hope is gone now. We could well see a team next Saturday on the verge of mailing it in. UK, on the other hand, is improving every week. If we manage our turnovers, we not only win, we win big.

Kentucky 38
Mizzou 17
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OK, that's pretty close to exactly what happened, correct?
 
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