Analytics Show Our OL Run Blocking Is Elite

BlackLeftLeft

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The eye test reveals that we have conspicuous issues in regards to pass blocking, but the stats and advanced analytics show that our run blocking is great as we lead the nation in a few categories.


We're ranked #1 in FBS and Power 5 in Opportunity Rate, which is the percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job so to speak.


We're also ranked #2 in FBS and Power 5 (behind Ohio State) in Avg Line Yards, a stat that gives the line full credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10) and anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity w/ credit going to the runner. It basically clues you in on which lines are creating holes and are most responsible for a rushing attack's success. Many times folks with give an undue amount of credit to backs while discounting the contribution of the line.

Another metric we're #1 in FBS and Power 5 in is Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry which is the raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer). It basically gives you a clue as to which lines are most successful in situations where the run is most common and expected.

In addition to those metrics, we're 5th(4th P5) in Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry( raw unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs) , T-1st in FBS and Power 5 in Success Rate ( the percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go that achieved a first down or touchdown), and 3rd in FBS and Power 5 in Stuff Rate (percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage).

As for our pass blocking, Caleb's escability masks a lot of our issues statistically as he's able to avoid sacks on many plays and makes the line's pass blocking show up as better than it is. Individual PFF grades will reveal issues as far as which guys are allowing the most pressures and whatnot.
 

BlackLeftLeft

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If anything these responses show the lack of blind representation in pop culture since we're still dusting off Stevie Wonder, Ray Charles, and Mr. Magoo references.

Back to football....

The analytics are for run blocking and not pass blocking. Don't mix up the two and base your opinion on a jumbled recollection of Caleb running for his life more times than Dye's been running through huge holes.

The following stats show the running game has been a much smaller part of the offense despite the effectiveness of the line and the backs when actually utilized.

66th in Rushing Yards %
86th in Rushing Attempts Per Game
85th in Rushing Play Percentage (48.70/51.30 Run Pass Ratio)
but...

14th in Yards Per Carry

We're also:
10th in Scoring Offense
7th in Points Per Play
11th in Yards Per Point.......

So it's easy to see why Riley is fine with the current balance.

I think this bodes well for us in regards to our upcoming battle vs. Utah. Utah's weakness is run defense (83rd 4.4 ypc, barely better than our maligned run D at 87th and 4.5ypc) and we can lean on our run game more against them if they're neutralizing our passing game. The thing is Utah is 17th in pass defense (183.8 ypg), but only 69th (12.0 ypc) in opponents yards per completion which shows that secondary is a bit of fools gold despite the presence of impact players CB Phillips III and S Bishop, but I digress.

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HRPickenstuff

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The eye test reveals that we have conspicuous issues in regards to pass blocking, but the stats and advanced analytics show that our run blocking is great as we lead the nation in a few categories.


We're ranked #1 in FBS and Power 5 in Opportunity Rate, which is the percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job so to speak.


We're also ranked #2 in FBS and Power 5 (behind Ohio State) in Avg Line Yards, a stat that gives the line full credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10) and anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity w/ credit going to the runner. It basically clues you in on which lines are creating holes and are most responsible for a rushing attack's success. Many times folks with give an undue amount of credit to backs while discounting the contribution of the line.

Another metric we're #1 in FBS and Power 5 in is Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry which is the raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer). It basically gives you a clue as to which lines are most successful in situations where the run is most common and expected.

In addition to those metrics, we're 5th(4th P5) in Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry( raw unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs) , T-1st in FBS and Power 5 in Success Rate ( the percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go that achieved a first down or touchdown), and 3rd in FBS and Power 5 in Stuff Rate (percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage).

As for our pass blocking, Caleb's escability masks a lot of our issues statistically as he's able to avoid sacks on many plays and makes the line's pass blocking show up as better than it is. Individual PFF grades will reveal issues as far as which guys are allowing the most pressures and whatnot.
OL is tricky. None of USC's opponents had elite defenses. More importantly a scary pass rush. I like the numbers but they really haven't been challenged. Utah has the 13th ranked defense and UCLA is ranked behind #30 USC at 38th. We'll have to see.

IMHO the OL is far from elite but I wasn't expecting that. I will say I believe it to be good enough to win 11 or 12 games.

What I like about this team is they can beat you different ways. They are not quite elite at anything but good at everything. All they have to do now is establish a "we can't be beat" Moxie.
 
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SoCalN8tiv

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If anything these responses show the lack of blind representation in pop culture since we're still dusting off Stevie Wonder, Ray Charles, and Mr. Magoo references.
Classics are FOREVER...;)Btw, Magoo was a reference to figurative myopia.
 
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SouthbayTrojan91

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The Oline has definitely been the pleasant surprise this year. Run blocking has been very good, regardless of the competition level.
We shall see what happens the next 2 weeks.
 
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SoCalN8tiv

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In all seriousness, the O-line is doing a swell job. Boffo, gang busters, ant moving that rubber tree plant, troopers, yeoman's work 😁
 

BlackLeftLeft

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OL is tricky. None of USC's opponents had elite defenses. More importantly a scary pass rush. I like the numbers but they really haven't been challenged. Utah has the 13th ranked defense and UCLA is ranked behind #30 USC at 38th. We'll have to see.

IMHO the OL is far from elite but I wasn't expecting that. I will say I believe it to be good enough to win 11 or 12 games.

What I like about this team is they can beat you different ways. They are not quite elite at anything but good at everything. All they have to do now is establish a "we can't be beat" Moxie.
Regarding Utah........

They lost on the road to unranked Florida (3-2) who have lost to both ranked teams they've played ( #20 Kentucky and # 11 Tennessee) and their other two wins were vs directional schools FCS Eastern Washington and South Florida.

Utah's beaten the following:

Southern Utah (3-2) FCS school, but they've beaten powerhouse Utah Tech (who has even heard of this school?). No P5 wins.

San Diego State (2-3) No P5 wins. Beat Idaho State and a down Boise State who lost to UTEP

Arizona State (1-4) Only win vs. FCS Northern Arizona. No P5 wins. No FBS wins.

Oregon State (3-2) No P5 wins.

 
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HRPickenstuff

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Regarding Utah........

They lost on the road to unranked Florida (3-2) who have lost to both ranked teams they've played ( #20 Kentucky and # 11 Tennessee) and their other two wins were vs directional schools FCS Eastern Washington and South Florida.

Utah's beaten the following:

Southern Utah (3-2) FCS school, but they've beaten powerhouse Utah Tech (who has even heard of this school?). No P5 wins.

San Diego State (2-3) No P5 wins. Beat Idaho State and a down Boise State who lost to UTEP

Arizona State (1-4) Only win vs. FCS Northern Arizona. No P5 wins. No FBS wins.

Oregon State (3-2) No P5 wins.

Utah is very unique.

Guess how I picked the Florida upset? I used historic data mostly.

1. In 2021 Utah went 1-3 against out of conference opponents. 9-1 against the Pac 12. That's a serious discrepancy and can't be overlooked.

2. Florida is a better team at home and "The swamp" can be a tough place to play anytime. It gives them a bit of advantage.

3. For consecutive years Utah has taken an early loss either week 1 or 2. This years loss to Florida was the 3rd time in a row its happened. They are developing a slow start identity.

Now Utah in the middle of the season is a different story they usually peak. Utah has a bit of of a Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde look. I have watched them play a few times this season. They look solid everywhere but beatable. Oregon State moved the ball on them with ease. They just imploded in the Red Zone. That was one of the worst Red Zone performances I can recall. On one drive they had the ball 1st and goal on the 3 yard line and with 3 tries could not get the ball in the endzone. Infact they lost yards running lateral.

That being said. I'm still picking USC to beat Utah pretty convincingly something like 38-24.
 
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Socrates

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My eyes do not deceive me.

Last year, USC's RB's first move was to evade the initial penetration and from that point, the play was blown up.
Often the first defender met the QB/RB handoff and 1st and 10 became 2nd and 15.

This year, USC's RB's often get to the LB level without being touched.
And get this: I have seen WR's downfield blocking LB's.
And even more, OL are downfield pushing the scrum to tack on a couple of yards.
 
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BlackLeftLeft

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My eyes do not deceive me.

Last year, USC's RB's first move was to evade the initial penetration and from that point, the play was blown up.
Often the first defender met the QB/RB handoff and 1st and 10 became 2nd and 15.

This year, USC's RB's often get to the LB level without being touched.
And get this: I have seen WR's downfield blocking LB's.
And even more, OL are downfield pushing the scrum to tack on a couple of yards.
Keontay Ingram didn't get the credit he deserved. Ran for 911 yards at 5.8 a pop with last year's run blocking where many times guys were, as you mentioned, in his face before he even hit the LOS.

People are in love with Dye, and not to disparage or discount what he's doing both on the field and in regards to leadership, but Ingram would be having a field day this year because he's bigger, faster, and a more talented runner.

Last year we had a stuff rate (% of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage) of 16.9% (54th) while Oregon had one of 9.7% (#1 in the nation)

This year we have a stuff rate of 9.0% (3rd behind Ohio State and UCLA).






 
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WillingToConquest

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Millsap is a multiple time Grammy Award winning singer/pianist who was one of the most influential crossover country stars of the 70s and 80s. Won six Grammy Awards and recorded 35 top twenty hit songs en route to album sales of over 40 million.

Best known for hits like "Lost in the Fifties Tonight," "Smokey Mountain Rain," "It Was Almost Like a Song" "Any Day Now" and "I Wouldn't Have Missed It for The World."

Happens to be blind.

I grew up in the 70s and early 80s, at the height of all the "blind as Stevie Wonder" or "Ray Charles drove the bus" infamy/jokes. And my country music loving big brother would retort, "Hey what about Ronnie Milsap?!"

Fight on...