Are mizzou's stats inflated?

[crazyqx83_rivals88013]

Against P5 teams they have averaged 390 yards a game on an average of 56 plays.

Against non P5 teams, 658 yards a game on an average of 72 plays.

Defense is even worse. Take out their game against delaware state and they are giving up 514 yards per game.

The last three games they are giving up 44 points a game and 584 yards per game including 339 yards per game on the ground.

I think they are a really bad team who only looks decent (as decent as a 2-5 team can look) because of some horrific opponents. I mean a team like MTSU (thoroughly mediocre with a 47-24 loss to vandy on their resume) ran up and down the field at will.

Not sure how we are 4 point dogs and espn is giving them a 79% chance to win, other than we aren't very good on the road.

 

[WildCard]

Regarding stats, many people subscribe to a quote attributed to Mark Twain:

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.​

Mark Twain is probably my favorite American author but I subscribe to another but less well known thought:

Figures don't lie but liars can figure.​

The latter phrase tells us we cannot accept numbers at face value without (EDIT) an understanding of how such numbers came to be. I personally cannot understand how the sports books have made the Cats 3-4 point 'dawg but, FWIW, at least 3 well known computer driven "power ranking" systems have the Cats anywhere from a 5 to a 7 point 'dawg.

Go figure.

Peace

 

[allabouttheUK]

Against P5 teams they have averaged 390 yards a game on an average of 56 plays.

Against non P5 teams, 658 yards a game on an average of 72 plays.

Defense is even worse. Take out their game against delaware state and they are giving up 514 yards per game.

The last three games they are giving up 44 points a game and 584 yards per game including 339 yards per game on the ground.

I think they are a really bad team who only looks decent (as decent as a 2-5 team can look) because of some horrific opponents. I mean a team like MTSU (thoroughly mediocre with a 47-24 loss to vandy on their resume) ran up and down the field at will.

Not sure how we are 4 point dogs and espn is giving them a 79% chance to win, other than we aren't very good on the road.

This is what I have been saying for 2 weeks or more. People look at their season stats, but don't take into account who they padded those stats against. Them and Vandy have 2 common opponents thus far and look at the results. They are much more like their losses and nothing like their wins, IMO.

 

[JasonS.]

FWIW, all of computer rankings would have Middle Tennessee as a reasonably solid neutral-site favorite against us. If you go by the S&P+, FEI or Sagarin, neither Missouri or Kentucky have beaten a team as good as Middle Tennessee this season.

Two pretty similar teams, Mizzou has played tougher schedule to date ... Mizzou gets slight nod being at home.

 

[crazyqx83_rivals88013]

Regarding stats, many people subscribe to a quote attributed to Mark Twain:

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.​

Mark Twain is probably my favorite American authors but I subscribe to another but less well known thought:

Figures don't lie but liars can figure.​

The latter phrase tells us we cannot accept numbers at face value with an understanding of how such numbers came to be. I personally cannot understand how the sports books have made the Cats 3-4 point 'dawg but, FWIW, at least 3 well known computer driven "power ranking" systems have the Cats anywhere from a 5 to a 7 point 'dawg.

Go figure.

Peace

I give more weight to the last 3-4 games.

Considering snell didn't even play in our losses to USM and Florida and our defense looks a lot different than it did before stoops took over, I don't see how you can use the whole season as a gauge for this one game.

If you're giving the same weight to our first 2 games and Mizzwho's close losses to WVU and Georgia as you do their abysmal recent 4 games (not counting the joke of an opponent in delaware state) and our 4 of 5 wins, I guess you could argue that they are superior. I guess...

 

[crazyqx83_rivals88013]

FWIW, all of computer rankings would have Middle Tennessee as a reasonably solid neutral-site favorite against us. If you go by the S&P+, FEI or Sagarin, neither Missouri or Kentucky have beaten a team as good as Middle Tennessee this season.

Two pretty similar teams, Mizzou has played tougher schedule to date ... Mizzou gets slight nod being at home.

And yet another common opponent (vandy) demolished them. I'm not buying that MTSU is any good at all.

 

[JasonS.]

And yet another common opponent (vandy) demolished them. I'm not buying that MTSU is any good at all.

Too bad we can't go to the Bahamas Bowl (where they seem to go every year) in December and settle this.

 

[Adolph Rollingover]

I'm 3/4 the way through UGA at Missouri and am impressed with the Offense. QB makes nice stop fade throws and is very good moving safeties with his eyes. Not sure defensive pressure is an answer because they have built in escape throws on every concept. They will score 4 TDs.

 

[Anon1660081258]

At this point, I think we are a discernibly better football team (-10) than the upper echelon Group of 5 teams, thanks to our running game and improved defense. I like our chances in Columbia.

 

[TACcat7]

I'm 3/4 the way through UGA at Missouri and am impressed with the Offense. QB makes nice stop fade throws and is very good moving safeties with his eyes. Not sure defensive pressure is an answer because they have built in escape throws on every concept. They will score 4 TDs.

I don't disagree. However, I think UK plays ball control and score about 52 points.

 

[akaukswoosh]

They will score 4 TDs.

I hope not.

 

[LeonThe Camel]

While common opponents is often used as a measuring stick, it is by no means a good measuring stick. Time, weather, personnel, game situations, and every other possible factor, change from game to game and opponent to opponent.

I have not watched Mizzou play 1 second this year. But if they are a pass first team, comparing any common opponent to us is not a good idea. If they are a gimmick offense, again not a good read. It is useful if we play the same style offensively and defensively.

 

[allabouttheUK]

While common opponents is often used as a measuring stick, it is by no means a good measuring stick. Time, weather, personnel, game situations, and every other possible factor, change from game to game and opponent to opponent.

I have not watched Mizzou play 1 second this year. But if they are a pass first team, comparing any common opponent to us is not a good idea. If they are a gimmick offense, again not a good read. It is useful if we play the same style offensively and defensively.

I've watched parts of 2 games they have played (UF, MTSU), and both games I saw more rushing from them than passing. Again, I think their numbers are inflated from mostly 2 games, especially plays per game and yards per game. Trust UK's DB's, stop the run, and eat the clock...that is how we win the game, and hopefully win it going away. They may move the ball on us, but I think we can hold them to more FG's than TD's. They on the other hand can't seem to keep people out of the endzone.

 

[LeonThe Camel]

I've watched parts of 2 games they have played (UF, MTSU), and both games I saw more rushing from them than passing. Again, I think their numbers are inflated from mostly 2 games, especially plays per game and yards per game. Trust UK's DB's, stop the run, and eat the clock...that is how we win the game, and hopefully win it going away. They may move the ball on us, but I think we can hold them to more FG's than TD's. They on the other hand can't seem to keep people out of the endzone.

My question would be what are Kentucky's stats against non P5 teams. More likely a similar result.

 

[sluggercatfan]

They will score 4 TDs.

I hope not.

Don't care as long as we score 52 like tacat7 said...that's CFB 2016 style

 

[allabouttheUK]

My question would be what are Kentucky's stats against non P5 teams. More likely a similar result.

Good point. I don't think you would see near the fluctuation with UK's numbers as you do theirs though. I look at what they have done in the conference, and like I have said before, they are on par with MSU, IMO, but probably worse due to injuries, dwindling fan support and some other issues.

 

[Mikey Likes It]

Missouri may have padded stats (everyone does) but an average of 390 against P5 is still pretty good.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Missouri may have padded stats (everyone does) but an average of 390 against P5 is still pretty good.

Correct...if we don't score 35+ don't think we win.

 

[K_TIME]

1. THe stats vs those 2 non conference scrubs are going to way inflate any season averages. 79 and 61 pts vs. cupcakes is really no better measuring stick vs. winning by 40 pts...but it makes a difference in stats.
2. Mizzou is going to throw at us...but if you're UK...wouldn't you rather have them throwing at Baity, Westry, Edwards, McClain and Randolph/pass rush with Allen/Ware vs. running at Love, Jones, Miggins, Middleton, Ware and Allen?

The opposite is also true when we get the ball...Mizzou isn't as strong vs. run which is our strength.

 

[LeonThe Camel]

Good point. I don't think you would see near the fluctuation with UK's numbers as you do theirs though. I look at what they have done in the conference, and like I have said before, they are on par with MSU, IMO, but probably worse due to injuries, dwindling fan support and some other issues.

Here is what I found at http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/splits/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats.

Passing
GAME ------------------CMP/ATT YDS - YDS/G TD
5 conference games 54/112 ---- 620 ---124 --- 2
2 non-conf games ---34/49 ------ 624 ---312 ---7

Running
GAME ------------------CAR YDS YDS/G TD
5 Conference games 216 902 - 180.4 - 6
2 non-Conf games ----- 76 477 - 238.5 - 6

So in P5 (all conference games) we have averaged 124 yards per game passing and 180 yards running the ball.
In the 2 non-P5 games, we are averaging 312 yards passing and 238 yards running.

 

[Poetax]

If we play our game and they don't pass up and down the field on us, I feel good about our chances. We should get a lot of plays in with the way they play. And if we can keep our mistakes down I believe we can wear their defense down badly by the beginning of the 4th Qtr.

 

[308955]

I think it cuts both ways. While Missouri's style of play could lend itself to inflated offensive stats against inferior opponents, it also contributes to inflating the offensive statistics of their superior opponents. Their offense probably isn't quite as good as the numbers suggest, while their defense not quite as bad. Bottom line is that conference road wins do not come easy. Saturday will be no different.

 

[JRock1966]

No one is this thread has talked about turnovers. If SJ continues to turn the ball over then I can see why Mizzou was made the favorite.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Here is what I found at http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/splits/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats.

Passing
GAME ------------------CMP/ATT YDS - YDS/G TD
5 conference games 54/112 ---- 620 ---124 --- 2
2 non-conf games ---34/49 ------ 624 ---312 ---7

Running
GAME ------------------CAR YDS YDS/G TD
5 Conference games 216 902 - 180.4 - 6
2 non-Conf games ----- 76 477 - 238.5 - 6

So in P5 (all conference games) we have averaged 124 yards per game passing and 180 yards running the ball.
In the 2 non-P5 games, we are averaging 312 yards passing and 238 yards running.

Point proven. Still think they aren't what people are making them out to be. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I just can't come up with any stats to prove it. We are trending up and they are trending down.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Run the ball. Sprinkle in a few well timed accurate passes, and we win without much trouble imo.

Ball security/defensive TD allowed and/or a ST TD allowed will be the only thing that would put this game in jeopardy imo.

 

[mtn cat1]

Against P5 teams they have averaged 390 yards a game on an average of 56 plays.

Against non P5 teams, 658 yards a game on an average of 72 plays.

Defense is even worse. Take out their game against delaware state and they are giving up 514 yards per game.

The last three games they are giving up 44 points a game and 584 yards per game including 339 yards per game on the ground.

I think they are a really bad team who only looks decent (as decent as a 2-5 team can look) because of some horrific opponents. I mean a team like MTSU (thoroughly mediocre with a 47-24 loss to vandy on their resume) ran up and down the field at will.

Not sure how we are 4 point dogs and espn is giving them a 79% chance to win, other than we aren't very good on the road.

Did you happen to see their last game vs MTSU? They certainly did not appear that strong in that loss! Could have been that they were "looking ahead" to their game with us, I don't know for a certainty! Suffice-it-to-say, they surely did not appear to be a team that we should be in fear of!!!

 

[EliteBlue]

IMO they are going to have their 3and outs do to style of play. As long as we don't get baited into a shootout and we pound the ball on the ground and eat clock to make them pay for short drives then I see it being close until the middle of the 3rd when we stretch it to 14ish and hold onto that. Much like MSU if Johnson doesn't cough the ball up for the scoop and score.

 

[carolinacat]

1. THe stats vs those 2 non conference scrubs are going to way inflate any season averages. 79 and 61 pts vs. cupcakes is really no better measuring stick vs. winning by 40 pts...but it makes a difference in stats.
2. Mizzou is going to throw at us...but if you're UK...wouldn't you rather have them throwing at Baity, Westry, Edwards, McClain and Randolph/pass rush with Allen/Ware vs. running at Love, Jones, Miggins, Middleton, Ware and Allen?

The opposite is also true when we get the ball...Mizzou isn't as strong vs. run which is our strength.

This sums up my thoughts on the game as well. We matchup fairly well with them...I think the 11 am start, with them coming off a disheartening homecoming loss, also sets up well for us. Hopefully, we can run it down their throats and keep the crowd out of it.

 

[KWilt43atbuzz]

Are Tom Brady's footballs deflated?
Well there you have it.

 

[billoliver40]

Mizzous offense is likely inflated because of their competition. So is our defense.

It'll be interesting. I would THINK UK would run a whole lot.....like every down if they could. Of course, they could go pass crazy too. Gran will dial up something......but I really think UK
Needs to control the clock big time.

 

[Deeeefense]

Regarding stats, many people subscribe to a quote attributed to Mark Twain:

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.​

Mark Twain is probably my favorite American author but I subscribe to another but less well known thought:

Figures don't lie but liars can figure.​

The latter phrase tells us we cannot accept numbers at face value without (EDIT) an understanding of how such numbers came to be. I personally cannot understand how the sports books have made the Cats 3-4 point 'dawg but, FWIW, at least 3 well known computer driven "power ranking" systems have the Cats anywhere from a 5 to a 7 point 'dawg.

Go figure.

Peace

Kentucky ranks 127th in Turnovers this week - OUCH!
That's something that kills the offensive ranking and also puts the defense back on the field too much and makes it look worse than it is as well.

If this would be a turnover free game I think we win by 2 scores but becasue we are likely to turn it over a couple of times, we are the dogs going in. The good news is, that's a fixable problem. Hopefully they have worked hard on it this week.

 

[Beatle Bum]

Against P5 teams they have averaged 390 yards a game on an average of 56 plays.

Against non P5 teams, 658 yards a game on an average of 72 plays.

Defense is even worse. Take out their game against delaware state and they are giving up 514 yards per game.

The last three games they are giving up 44 points a game and 584 yards per game including 339 yards per game on the ground.

I think they are a really bad team who only looks decent (as decent as a 2-5 team can look) because of some horrific opponents. I mean a team like MTSU (thoroughly mediocre with a 47-24 loss to vandy on their resume) ran up and down the field at will.

Not sure how we are 4 point dogs and espn is giving them a 79% chance to win, other than we aren't very good on the road.

Consider the quality of the P5 competition on their schedule. WVU, LSU, UGA, and UF. Not chopped liver.

 

[mhroe1984]

Their only 2 wins are against Eastern Michigan and Delaware State. Beating Delaware State 79-0 certainly inflated their offensive numbers for the season.

 

[megablue]

The Tigers aren't great, but they've played a pretty tough schedule so far.

 

[allabouttheUK]

The Tigers aren't great, but they've played a pretty tough schedule so far.

Southern Miss < West Virginia
NMSU > Deleware St
UF = UF
Vandy > UGA This can be argued but I give Vandy the nod for beating UGA @UGA for homecoming no less
Bama > LSU
South Carolina > Eastern Michigan
Miss St > MTSU

Seems like our schedule has been a bit tougher or even if you want to argue on the side of Missouri. What say you?

**yes I know the numbers from all the sites will disagree, but looking at teams we have beat ahead of us take a little validity away from those numbers, IMO.

 

[WildCard]

Kentucky ranks 127th in Turnovers this week - OUCH!
That's something that kills the offensive ranking and also puts the defense back on the field too much and makes it look worse than it is as well.

If this would be a turnover free game I think we win by 2 scores but becasue we are likely to turn it over a couple of times, we are the dogs going in. The good news is, that's a fixable problem. Hopefully they have worked hard on it this week.

TOs are the hardest statistic to somehow translate into a "game prediction factor". FWIW, I basically ignore them if trying to handicap a game. You just don't know "when and where" a TO is likely to happen.

IMO, the real impact of TOs is more about the "when and where" than "how many". While not meaningless, I think TOs that occur between the 25s are much less meaningful than TOs at or inside the 25. My rationale is that taking possession on or inside the opponent's 25 (or conversely losing possession on or inside your 25) represents an excellent opportunity to score (or give up a score) even if the ball doesn't move an inch. OTOH, TOs between the 25s "require" some degree of offense (thus an opportunity for the defense to stop the offense and prevent a score). I am often amused to see fans, pundits and writers frequently refer to a 60 yard TD drive after a fumble recovery or pick as "points off TOs".

Peace

 

[sluggercatfan]

Southern Miss < West Virginia
NMSU > Deleware St
UF = UF
Vandy > UGA This can be argued but I give Vandy the nod for beating UGA @UGA for homecoming no less
Bama > LSU
South Carolina > Eastern Michigan
Miss St > MTSU

Seems like our schedule has been a bit tougher or even if you want to argue on the side of Missouri. What say you?

**yes I know the numbers from all the sites will disagree, but looking at teams we have beat ahead of us take a little validity away from those numbers, IMO.

Think mtsu and mst is an =and I might give mtsu the nod...love the offense they ran

 

[Mikey Likes It]

Southern Miss < West Virginia
NMSU > Deleware St
UF = UF
Vandy > UGA This can be argued but I give Vandy the nod for beating UGA @UGA for homecoming no less
Bama > LSU
South Carolina > Eastern Michigan
Miss St > MTSU

Seems like our schedule has been a bit tougher or even if you want to argue on the side of Missouri. What say you?

**yes I know the numbers from all the sites will disagree, but looking at teams we have beat ahead of us take a little validity away from those numbers, IMO.

I dispute your findings that UF = UF

Also Eastern Michigan may be better than USCjr just on the sheer fact that they don't have Muschamp at the wheel.

 

[Gary4UK]

Against P5 teams they have averaged 390 yards a game on an average of 56 plays.

Against non P5 teams, 658 yards a game on an average of 72 plays.

Defense is even worse. Take out their game against delaware state and they are giving up 514 yards per game.

The last three games they are giving up 44 points a game and 584 yards per game including 339 yards per game on the ground.

I think they are a really bad team who only looks decent (as decent as a 2-5 team can look) because of some horrific opponents. I mean a team like MTSU (thoroughly mediocre with a 47-24 loss to vandy on their resume) ran up and down the field at will.

Not sure how we are 4 point dogs and espn is giving them a 79% chance to win, other than we aren't very good on the road.

Their 3 SEC games include Georgia, Florida & LSU...
I think they're getting in the part of the schedule where they think they can get some wins... I don't think UK will be as easy as they might think...

 

[allabouttheUK]

Think mtsu and mst is an =and I might give mtsu the nod...love the offense they ran

Hard to argue with that. It would be worth watching. The MTSU stretch run plays absolutely killed Missouri last Saturday. I was also surprised at how inept the Missouri secondary seemed. People talk about Johnson not having much of an arm, the kid from MTSU was lobbing throws that were begging to be picked off. However, they were mostly timing throws with the DB's backs turned.