Bad match up for us Saturday

ukats22

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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
 
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BigBlueFanGA

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Jun 14, 2005
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
They are up tempo, which is killing their already depleted defense. Not to mention, their QB isn't suited for that tempo. I think you have it backwards. The last thing they want is to face a team happy to grind it out with a running attack, keeping their defense on the field even longer. The combination is terrible for Missouri.
 

RackOps

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Mizzou has scored a bunch of points on some bad opponents which is inflating their stats.

Against power 5 schools, their offense is averaging only 14.75 pts per game.

For comparison, Ky's offense averages 15.2 pts per game against power 5 schools (Ms State pulled the Avg way up though).


I like the matchup. I guess we'll see how it goes on Saturday.
 

John Henry

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With Stoops now in charge of the defense perhaps the trend of allowing up tempo quarterbacks to run all over us will change. Stopping them on 3rd down will be the medicine to cure that.
 

TTU/UK fan

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Oct 5, 2011
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave

This is the first SEC team that I can say our defense is better than by a decent margin. Not only that but lets say it loud and clear. The Mizzou offense has not done jack against P5 defenses.

WVU- 11 pts
LSU- 7 pts
Florida- 14 pts
Georgia- 27 pts the only game the offense looked good in vs P5, and thats with 5 turnovers. Geoegia doesnt have much of a defense, I wouldnt hesitate to say UK has a better defense than Georgia.

They put up 45 vs MTSU and still lost. Very highly doubt they get even close to that vs us. This has been the most questionable Vegas line I have seen in awhile. I think UK wins easy. I have confidence in both sides of the ball vs Mizzou.
 

tntuk

Heisman
Jan 17, 2002
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Mizzou has scored a bunch of points on some bad opponents which is inflating their stats.

Against power 5 schools, their offense is averaging only 14.75 pts per game.

For comparison, Ky's offense averages 15.2 pts per game against power 5 schools (Ms State pulled the Avg way up though).


I like the matchup. I guess we'll see how it goes on Saturday.
And UF and AL, two of the top defenses in the SEC, pulled our points way down.

I agree with you though. I think the matchup is in our favor.

Get off the field on 3rd downs.
Control the clock with our run game, keeping their O off the field.
Limit turnovers. We can't afford to turn the ball over giving their O a short field to work with.
 

Rhavic

Heisman
Dec 15, 2014
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave

Mizzou could much more likely be a worse match-up for themselves in this game. Such a massive lack of defensive depth on that side of the ball for them, far worse than we've been this season, and do consider the fact that:

1. The team has been much, much better since Southern Miss and New Mexico State

2. Southern Miss's QB is 5x the QB that Drew Lock is. Overall, Southern Miss is a better, more talented offensive football team than Mizzou.

If Drew Lock was a big threat with his legs, I'd be more concerned with their offense, but fact of the matter is that I fully believe that our DB's can lock down their wide outs, and I think our front 7 on both side of the ball can handle Mizzou, especially offensively.

Also, I disagree with the whole notion that we match up better with a team similar to our grind-it out style. Ball control kills our defense, and Mizzou doesn't have a great ball control offense. They run a lot of plays as a product of calling plays early in the clock/having a defense that surrenders a lot of points somewhat quickly. not because they can dominate the LOS. Mizzou will put their depleted/already weak defense on the field that much more quickly with their offensive style, where Kentucky will inevitably control the football and the line of scrimmage consistently, giving our defense that much more rest, and tiring out Mizzou relatively quickly. We absolutely have the offensive firepower, and I think we're finding our offensive identity to a bigger degree than we previously did.
At first, we were strictly a ball control, smashmouth football team. Now, it seems like we're learning how to be more explosive on offense, while still maintaining the strength of our team (smashmouth football). That's a recipe for an elite offense. Occasionally bust a big one open while being able to control the LOS and wear down defense, dictate pace, lower scores, and get a better chance to get the possession that counts at the end during close games.

Mizzou has a proven weakness against good running teams. We have, arguably an elite running team/ball control offense. That matters a lot, especially considering they lost 2 of their 3 best defensive players this past week.
 

sluggercatfan

Heisman
Aug 17, 2004
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
Depends on if the offense(UK) trys to control the fb with its running game...watched the mtsu game twice and they ran 105 plays and scored 45pts, but the flip side is mtsu with Tony Franklin as OC, runs the same type offense so that is a little skewed...that being said, I think we will need to score at least 35 to win the game.
 

Anon1660081258

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I tend to think the OP has it flipped. We should punish them with our ground game as beaten up as they are... they weren't defending the run well in the first place. What will prove interesting is whether our drives end up being shortened by explosive scoring pass plays, and the effect that might have on our defense as the game progresses, assuming Mizzou is sustaining drives. Mizzou might just sell out to stop our running game, figuring they have their best chance in a track meet. If they play between the 20's early with 8 in the box, I expect we go to Badet and Conrad, just to establish that we can, and thereafter hopefully see more 2 out of them and pound it. If we can still grind them in 1(think we can) I expect you will hear some strange comments out of Gran after the game like "it was there, but we passed on it" speaking of one or more deep routes. We DO NOT want a track meet with these guys. Would be great to see them held to about 60 plays, and would say a lot about our staff and team at this point. I believe we can get our stops and limit a lot of their scoring oops to 3, but it could get ugly for us late if we let them run 90 plays.
 
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WildCard

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I don't follow Mizzou and only "know them" by their stats. They are 2-5 mainly as a result of 2 terrible home field losses (GA and MTS) and a very tough early schedule (@ #10 WVA, GA, @ #19 LSU and @ #14 FL, all losses). They turned it over 5 times (4 in the 2nd half) against GA twice against MTSU for a 1-7 TO margin in those 2 losses.

In perhaps the most peculiar stat of this game it involves 2 of the most generous teams in football. Mizzou is #119 in giveaways at 2.3/game and UK is #124 at 2.6/game. If you want to look at it from a margin standpoint, MO is #107 at -.7 and UK is #123 at -1.3. It might be a safe assumption that whoever takes care of the ball the best will pull out a win in a close one.

Peace
 

RackOps

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Mizzou's defense is a quick, smallish defense that is built to stop the spread...and it's already beat up badly.

We are not a spread team. Their linebackers are going to get abused.

The question is if we can stop their high octane offense. I think we can.
 

Mikey Likes It

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If we avoid turnovers we should just be able to out score them. Get a couple of stops and you have a commanding lead.
 

GridCats

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Jan 1, 2013
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Thing that concerns me is that Vegas is usually accurate. And could be a lot like the Ms. St game.
 

tntuk

Heisman
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Mizzou's defense is a quick, smallish defense that is built to stop the spread...and it's already beat up badly.

We are not a spread team. Their linebackers are going to get abused.

The question is if we can stop their high octane offense. I think we can.
I agree and think we stop them, at least in part, by keeping their O off the field with long sustained drives of our own. That, plus getting off the field on 3rd downs.
 

BluffaloSlim

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Which opponents give fast 'paste' teams trouble?

Teams who can run the ball and have long sustained drives.

Those offense are mainly effective when they get in rhythm. Our run game could negate this
 

Gary4UK

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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
I've not been on the free board much, but I haven't read anything about UK fans talking about a big win... Just the opposite, most think this is going to be a tough game for them... Mizz hasn't won a conference game, because they have played, Georgia, LSU and Florida... They'll be looking at Kentucky for their first win in the SEC... Kentucky is also playing well, and it should be a good game, but Mizz is picked to win by 3-5 points... With UK on the road, they're not very much to be confident about.... Still, I'm not going to say we have no chance.. I think this team showed me a lot by coming back and winning against MSU...
 

Mr Schwump

Heisman
Nov 4, 2006
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave

Agreed. They have a good running game but they'll also throw 40-50 times vs a UK D that's lacking a good pass rush. Very dangerous game. UK's O will give them trouble but can UK pressure their QB? Plus UK has an awful, woeful history with SEC road games.
 

Blue Decade

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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
Very intelligent post. South Carolina did not match up well with Kentucky. Mississippi State did not match up well with Kentucky. But Kentucky does not match up well with Missouri, and this is also a road game. IIRC, Stoops has won 1 SEC road game. The weak links on our football team are our passing game and our defense against the run. Our quarterback has guts, but he turns the ball over. Missouri has a solid running game, a great young quarterback, and strong pass rush featuring a future NFL defensive end. I don't see Kentucky winning tomorrow unless we can run the football for over 300 yards and heavily control time of possession. All along, I have predicted 4-5 wins this year. Now I think it will be 5. I still look for 7 wins next year. And when we lose more games, I just hope our fans will stay off Stoops' back, because he is doing a solid job this year despite all the injuries. With Danny Clark's verbal, our next recruiting class is finally shaping up.
 

tntuk

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Very intelligent post. South Carolina did not match up well with Kentucky. Mississippi State did not match up well with Kentucky. But Kentucky does not match up well with Missouri, and this is also a road game. IIRC, Stoops has won 1 SEC road game. The weak links on our football team are our passing game and our defense against the run. Our quarterback has guts, but he turns the ball over. Missouri has a solid running game, a great young quarterback, and strong pass rush featuring a future NFL defensive end. I don't see Kentucky winning tomorrow unless we can run the football for over 300 yards and heavily control time of possession. All along, I have predicted 4-5 wins this year. Now I think it will be 5. I still look for 7 wins next year. And when we lose more games, I just hope our fans will stay off Stoops' back, because he is doing a solid job this year despite all the injuries. With Danny Clark's verbal, our next recruiting class is finally shaping up.
Tell me this. Do you think Mizzou's defense matches up with Kentucky's offense? If you say yes, in what way?

Further you say the our weaknesses are stopping the run on D and passing the ball on O.

Mizzou's defense can't stop the run (they gave up 300 yards to MTSU last week) which as you point out indirectly, is our offense's strength. Their offensive strength is the passing game, which plays into our strength - the secondary. These two issues play right into UKs hands.

Further, the idea (brought up by others) that UK isn't getting pressure on the QB this year is false. Stats prove otherwise.
 
Jul 26, 2003
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With all of the talk of a big win this weekend I'm afraid this is not a good match up for us.

Missouri is an uptempo team. Runs a lot of plays and uk has had a ton of trouble with these "nascar" type offenses. Look at Southern Miss and New Mexico State for example, there is more than just a couple of reasons we have trouble, but lack of depth in the front 7 and disorganization on the field and on the sideline during these fast to snap teams.

We are much better suited with teams who like to grind it out, but with Missouri I do not think we have the offensive fire power to consistently keep up if our d gets tired and it becomes a track meet like their game with mtsu.

Just a bad match up.

Dave
Will all come down to if our guys want to be the head busters or if our guys won't mind them being the head busters.
 

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
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Mizzou's defense is a quick, smallish defense that is built to stop the spread...and it's already beat up badly.

We are not a spread team. Their linebackers are going to get abused.

The question is if we can stop their high octane offense. I think we can.
Maybe they score 100 on us, I don't know, but why do so many people refer to them AZ having a great, or, high octane offense . They dont.
 
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KWilt43atbuzz

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I disagree. At Alabama and at Florida were bad matchups.
At a Mizzou team who is winless in the SEC has dropped 3 straight has given up 40 plus points in 3 straight and are 2-5 overall is not what I consider a bad matchup.
UK will win.
 

BigBlueFanGA

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I've not been on the free board much, but I haven't read anything about UK fans talking about a big win... Just the opposite, most think this is going to be a tough game for them... Mizz hasn't won a conference game, because they have played, Georgia, LSU and Florida... They'll be looking at Kentucky for their first win in the SEC... Kentucky is also playing well, and it should be a good game, but Mizz is picked to win by 3-5 points... With UK on the road, they're not very much to be confident about.... Still, I'm not going to say we have no chance.. I think this team showed me a lot by coming back and winning against MSU...
Why even mention not having a chance. Almost every thing other than Vegas points towards a UK win.
 
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sluggercatfan

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Agreed. They have a good running game but they'll also throw 40-50 times vs a UK D that's lacking a good pass rush. Very dangerous game. UK's O will give them trouble but can UK pressure their QB? Plus UK has an awful, woeful history with SEC road games.
IF they get 95+ snaps tomorrow we are probably in big trouble...mtsu loved that type game and was the better offensive team hence the final score of 51-45...don't know if UK can(or MS wants to) play that type of game.
 
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We are a much better team than we were eight weeks ago, both on D and O. We found a running game that was absent against Florida. Our JC QB has SEC game experience. Pringle and Middleton have developed and Elam played last week against an up tempo MSU offense.

But still we have limited depth and rely on Snell near the goal line and Jones flying all over the place on D. We need to keep them healthy to win. And Eli Brown will see more playing time.
 

JasonS.

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I'm not sure we have enough of an identity on defense to have good or bad matchups. Excited to see how our guys do.

I'd guess we'll see Mizzou at their best. They win tomorrow and there's a very realistic path to six wins for them.
 

Deeeefense

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I see this as a game of attrition that we should win in the end. Yes they can run a lot of plays, but we can run a lot of clock and eventually they will have difficulty stopping us in the 4th period.

Having said that, you don't have to be Vince Lombardi to know what their defensive game plan will be, "stop the run and make Johnson beat you throwing". So we'll have to mix in some passing to keep it honest.
 
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Mikey Likes It

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I'll say this. I've only seen a limited amount of Missouri this season but from the two games I saw they rely heavily on the dink and dunk wide receiver screens, 3-8 yard passes for yards after catch and lately our DB's have been fantastic at the open field tackles and limiting YAC
 

Anon1660081258

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I'll say this. I've only seen a limited amount of Missouri this season but from the two games I saw they rely heavily on the dink and dunk wide receiver screens, 3-8 yard passes for yards after catch and lately our DB's have been fantastic at the open field tackles and limiting YAC
Or simply taking the pass attempt the other way... "Gotcha name in the paper, Marcus McWilson!" I will not be surprised if our D turns the game into a nightmare for Lock.
 
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Black Diamond Cat

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Mizzou's defense has allowed 133 points the last 3 games. They gave up more points (51), to MTSU at home, than (42) they gave up @ LSU, and (40), @ Florida.
They have suffered some season ending injuries to a couple of their best defensive players. This should help the Cats offensive prowess even more.
 
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KWilt43atbuzz

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I'll say this. I've only seen a limited amount of Missouri this season but from the two games I saw they rely heavily on the dink and dunk wide receiver screens, 3-8 yard passes for yards after catch and lately our DB's have been fantastic at the open field tackles and limiting YAC
This type of passing game plays right into the hands of UKs strength...secondary and Mr.Jones.

 

skcatfan

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I don't know how a Missouri team that has an injury depleted defense that already struggled to stop the run is a bad matchup for UK. Last time I checked UK has one of the best rushing offenses in the SEC. The point spread on this one has me a little perplexed because I don't see how Missouri could be favored based on recent play by both teams. I guess UK's track record especially in SEC road games has something to do with that. The only way I see UK losing this game is if they lose the turnover battle which is very possible. But I think this will be the game for Stoops to finally get over the hump and this team will go bowling finally.
 

JDHoss

Heisman
Jan 1, 2003
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* Take away Mizzuruh's two cupcakes with Delaware St & EMU, and they are #125 (they are #109 as is) in the nation in rushing defense, giving up 269 ypg.

* Sine the introduction of Benny Snell, UK is rushing for 238 ypg, which would be good for #21 in the nation.

* Mizzuruh's defense is physically hurting.

* Home field advantage? The attendance for the MTSU homecoming game was listed as 52K+, but realistically, it was probably half that. I tuned in from time to time, and the first thing I noticed was how empty the stands were. With Mizzuruh at 2-5 and and bowl hopes sinking fast, I can't imagine their fans showing up in droves for this.

Bottom line, if I have a team that can run the football, I like my chances against a team that has trouble stopping the run.