If Kentucky should tie Florida, they would loose out because of head to head. It's going to be really hard to win more games than Florida.
Not really, If you believe UK is capable of beating a bad mizzou team and a mediocre Georgia team at home.
If you believe that the above is plausible, then UK would be 5-2 in the SEC with only a game in Knoxville left (SEC games). UF, on the other hand, is currently 3-1 in the SEC and still has a neutral game against UGA (possible loss), a road game at LSU (probable loss), a road game at Arkansas (probable loss), a home game with South carolina (win) remaining. Could easily see UF losing at least 2 of those games and possibly 3.
If UF, UK, and UT all have 3 losses, then I believe that the tiebreaker would go to best divisional record and UT would win given that two of their losses came against the SEC west.
If you do not believe that UK can beat mizzou and UGA, then yes, it's a steep uphill climb.