End of game strategy...

[WildCard]

First let me offer the old cliche "a win is a win". But I have not seen this subject posted and I'm wondering how others feel about it.

UK leads 17-13, 4th and 1 on Vandy 10 with about 1:40 to play. UK kicks a FG to take a 20-13 lead. Why a FG instead of going for it?

Vandy was going to have to score a TD to win whether the score was 17-13 or 20-13. I say win (not tie) because had they scored on their last drive I feel pretty certain they would have gone for 2 and the win vice a tie. IMO, it would have been foolish for Vandy to get into a OT "shoot out" situation with their worse than pathetic offense.

If UK converts a 4th and 1 the game is over. If they don't convert, they leave a bad offense needing to go 90 yards to win. With the FG you risk a block and return (rare for sure) but you also allow Vandy a return opportunity and almost certainly better field position than had you surrendered the ball on the 10.

Like I said, it's in the book and a win is win but wondering what others thought about this

Peace

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

First let me offer the old cliche "a win is a win". But I have not seen this subject posted and I'm wondering how others feel about it.

UK leads 17-13, 4th and 1 on Vandy 10 with about 1:40 to play. UK kicks a FG to take a 20-13 lead. Why a FG instead of going for it?

Vandy was going to have to score a TD to win whether the score was 17-13 or 20-13. I say win (not tie) because had they scored on their last drive I feel pretty certain they would have gone for 2 and the win vice a tie. IMO, it would have been foolish for Vandy to get into a OT "shoot out" situation with their worse than pathetic offense.

If UK converts a 4th and 1 the game is over. If they don't convert, they leave a bad offense needing to go 90 yards to win. With the FG you risk a block and return (rare for sure) but you also allow Vandy a return opportunity and almost certainly better field position than had you surrendered the ball on the 10.

Like I said, it's in the book and a win is win but wondering what others thought about this

Peace

Great observation, I was discussing this very thing at work earlier this morning. If Snell had bounced the previous run out of the Wildcat outside he would probably scored. I would say that on a 4th and 1 we had a 90% plus success rate of gaining a yard on 4th down !

 

[Tskware]

That is a good question but don't think there is a right or wrong answer. If you kick the FG though, you make them drive a long way (hopefully) to score, then make a 2 pointer to win, which statistcially is less than 50-50. Best thing to do is get the FD and forget the rest, but I can't say kicking the FG is the wrong decision either, lots of coaches would play it the same way.

 

[UKGrad93]

I was thinking the same thing while watching the game. I thought we should have gone for it on 4th and 1.

By kicking fg, Vandy needs a td & 2 pt conversion or overtime.
If we don't get it, then Vandy could win by scoring a td.
If we do get it, game over.

When I list out the possibilities, my guess is that by kicking the fg, you are placing your bet on bunch of plays needed to win or lose the game vs. one play winning or losing the game. Otherwise, I don't know.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I don't have a huge problem with it. Either way they have to score a touchdown. If they block the kick and run it back, then Kentucky still has over a minute to get out there and get into field goal range to get the lead back. With the wind in our favor that would have been a good deal easier. If we went for it and didn't make it then Vanderbilt has to march the length of the field and that means that they just need the touchdown to win it and it would leave little to no time for UK to get back on top. Same thing can be said of a missed field goal. I think the risk/rewards there are pretty similar. I wouldn't have faulted the coaches either way. If the wind were different and made the kick much more difficult that would change things though.

 

[TBCat]

No you definitely kick the FG there. I do have issues with the short kick on the kick off however. But under no circumstance do you put yourself in a spot where you get beat by a TD. We don't know that Vandy would have gone for 2. And if they did they only get 1 shot at it. It's not the same as the 4 downs from the 10 to get it in. You only get one shot and while Vandy had a shot to convert a TD on 4 tries from the 10 they basically had no shot at doing so with only one try.

Also we have no idea what would have happened in OT. Remember we didn't allow an offensive TD the whole game. If it became an OT shoot out I would rule them out on that basis.

Going for the FG was a good idea but the short kick I have problems with.

 

[Mr Schwump]

That is a good question but don't think there is a right or wrong answer. If you kick the FG though, you make them drive a long way (hopefully) to score, then make a 2 pointer to win, which statistcially is less than 50-50. Best thing to do is get the FD and forget the rest, but I can't say kicking the FG is the wrong decision either, lots of coaches would play it the same way.

Keep in mind the OP, a UL toady, never passes up a chance to second guess Stoops.

 

[Deeeefense]

You can make a case either way, but I don't like turning the ball over to an opponent in a situation where if they can get into the endzone they win the game. By kicking the field goal we guaranteed OT at worse, as I can't seem Mason trying to go for 2, but if the did all that, they deserve to win.

 

[BlueRunner11]

I'm critical of Stoops, but he made the right call on that play and a couple others in the game as well. I actually thought it was one of his better coached games.

Of course if Vandy had caught even half of those 6 potential picks that hit them right in the hands, we'd probably lost by two scores. Very rarely does UK get the breaks it got in that game.

 

[allabouttheUK]

I'm critical of Stoops, but he made the right call on that play and a couple others in the game as well. I actually thought it was one of his better coached games.

Of course if Vandy had caught even half of those 6 potential picks that hit them right in the hands, we'd probably lost by two scores. Very rarely does UK get the breaks it got in that game.

I had the same thought as well about the dropped INT's. Also, the missed fumble recovery, botched block on the punt, as bad as they looked I couldn't help but think after the game that in years past UK loses a game because of those types of errors.

Both teams left some points on the board, but that happens in every game. Just glad the defense did their part and the run game looked good.

 

[UKRob 73]

Jones said on his show today that the TV stated it was 4th and 1, but it was actually 4th and 2.

 

[UKFootball78]

First let me offer the old cliche "a win is a win". But I have not seen this subject posted and I'm wondering how others feel about it.

UK leads 17-13, 4th and 1 on Vandy 10 with about 1:40 to play. UK kicks a FG to take a 20-13 lead. Why a FG instead of going for it?

Vandy was going to have to score a TD to win whether the score was 17-13 or 20-13. I say win (not tie) because had they scored on their last drive I feel pretty certain they would have gone for 2 and the win vice a tie. IMO, it would have been foolish for Vandy to get into a OT "shoot out" situation with their worse than pathetic offense.

If UK converts a 4th and 1 the game is over. If they don't convert, they leave a bad offense needing to go 90 yards to win. With the FG you risk a block and return (rare for sure) but you also allow Vandy a return opportunity and almost certainly better field position than had you surrendered the ball on the 10.

Like I said, it's in the book and a win is win but wondering what others thought about this

Peace

Because anytime you are up 4 late in a game you take the almost automatic 3 points...that way you don't lose if the other team scores a touchdown. Pretty simple.
AND Vandy was in field goal range at end of game(unless I am remembering wrong) at the end and could have tied it if UK went for it and didn't convert

 

[Shipwreck Kelly]

Yep, it was closer to 2 yards than 1 yard.

 

[UKGrad93]

Because anytime you are up 4 late in a game you take the almost automatic 3 points...that way you don't lose if the other team scores a touchdown. Pretty simple.
AND Vandy was in field goal range at end of game(unless I am remembering wrong) at the end and could have tied it if UK went for it and didn't convert

UK was up by 4. Even a Vandy fg is only worth 3.

 

[JHB4UK]

They had already gone for it on 4th & short a few plays earlier & barely got it in a Johnson arm stretch. Easy to understand not gambling again so soon.

 

[Glenn's Take]

I think I would have gone for it but it's one of the few where you can't really fault Stoops either way. I understand both.

 

[I am stupid]

Stoops is a coach that doesn't play to win, but he plays to not lose. This play style will some times make you lose games you shouldn't(or people think that is why they lost)

This situation, chances are if you hit the field goal worst case scenario go to overtime.(unlikely they would go for 2). If you miss the 4th down attempt, you lose on the worst case scenario.

 

[reflaine]

Also vandy had already missed an extra point but we had the hands to the face. Was right call every day. The 45 plus yarder was a different story. But we wasn't much more than an extra poubt

 

[jc2010]

Keep in mind the OP, a UL toady, never passes up a chance to second guess Stoops.

He is actually one of the better posters on this board.

 

[Johnfarrel]

Not one Power 5 coach out of 100 would have gone for it leading by four and playing at home. Again, there may be a lot to criticize Stoops for but this is not one of them.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Not one Power 5 coach out of 100 would have gone for it leading by four and playing at home. Again, there may be a lot to criticize Stoops for but this is not one of them.

I don't think the OP was criticizing Stoops necessarily, just playin the ' What if ' game. He has a point that if we had went for it and made it, game over. But some have said it was like a yard and 1/2, so everything worked out. Got a little hairy at the end however !

 

[Kats23]

You take the points. Stoops would of been roasted for it had it not worked out. I can't see in any world Vandy goes for the win in that case with Kentucky's offense sputtering to score.

 

[WildCard]

Thank you crestcat.

I just thought it was an interesting discussion point. A possible 2 point conversion really has no bearing on the decision. I simply opined that Vandy would likely go for 2 and the regulation win rather than try to win in OT. They just suck on offense and OT is mainly about offense.

But Vandy needed a TD no matter what so you would naturally want them to take over in the worst possible position. And that logically (and almost certainly) would be on/about their own 10 (if you failed) rather than wherever they got to on their return. JMO

Peace

 

[Cats_2010]

No you definitely kick the FG there. I do have issues with the short kick on the kick off however. But under no circumstance do you put yourself in a spot where you get beat by a TD. We don't know that Vandy would have gone for 2. And if they did they only get 1 shot at it. It's not the same as the 4 downs from the 10 to get it in. You only get one shot and while Vandy had a shot to convert a TD on 4 tries from the 10 they basically had no shot at doing so with only one try.

Also we have no idea what would have happened in OT. Remember we didn't allow an offensive TD the whole game. If it became an OT shoot out I would rule them out on that basis.

Going for the FG was a good idea but the short kick I have problems with.

I had to quit watching momentarily after the FG and didn't see the kickoff or anything that happened until Vandy was at the 20. How short was our kickoff? Georgia did a short kickoff to TN prior to the hail mary that cost them the game so not a fan of playing not to lose.

 

[jnewc2_rivals30628]

Come on now, don't rain on our parade, we're dancing in the streets on here after that Vandy win

 

[BlueRaider22]

Probability tells you to do what Stoops did. It may not be aggressive or sexy but it's the less risky call.

I don't have a problem with whatever a coach decides to do in that situation. Mainly because if your defense does it's job then it doesn't matter what you choose. I will say that during this game I had more confidence in our defense than the offense.....especially with Webb out.

 

[louisvillesux]

great question and analysis. i think stoops will always play it safe in that situation, and take the points. there is a case to be made for going for it though.

 

[shutzhund]

Keep in mind the OP, a UL toady, never passes up a chance to second guess Stoops.

It's true. The sky is falling.

 

[TBCat]

I had to quit watching momentarily after the FG and didn't see the kickoff or anything that happened until Vandy was at the 20. How short was our kickoff? Georgia did a short kickoff to TN prior to the hail mary that cost them the game so not a fan of playing not to lose.

It was a pooch kick. Their upback not the returner fielded it. I don't remember the exact yard marker but it was about the 40 yardline.

 

[jc2010]

Thank you crestcat.

I just thought it was an interesting discussion point. A possible 2 point conversion really has no bearing on the decision. I simply opined that Vandy would likely go for 2 and the regulation win rather than try to win in OT. They just suck on offense and OT is mainly about offense.

But Vandy needed a TD no matter what so you would naturally want them to take over in the worst possible position. And that logically (and almost certainly) would be on/about their own 10 (if you failed) rather than wherever they got to on their return. JMO

Peace

Always read your post, always thought out and on topic. Thanks for you input.

I was wondering which way Stoop was going to go, benefits both ways and something to consider

 

[reflaine]

It was a pooch kick. Their upback not the returner fielded it. I don't remember the exact yard marker but it was about the 40 yardline.

Kick was kicked to the 25, tackled at the 27. Into the wind, even if threw endzone (into wind wasn't gonna make it) would of been 25. Good call and coverage

 

[CB3UK]

Stoops made the right call.

 

[willievic]

First let me offer the old cliche "a win is a win". But I have not seen this subject posted and I'm wondering how others feel about it.

UK leads 17-13, 4th and 1 on Vandy 10 with about 1:40 to play. UK kicks a FG to take a 20-13 lead. Why a FG instead of going for it?

Vandy was going to have to score a TD to win whether the score was 17-13 or 20-13. I say win (not tie) because had they scored on their last drive I feel pretty certain they would have gone for 2 and the win vice a tie. IMO, it would have been foolish for Vandy to get into a OT "shoot out" situation with their worse than pathetic offense.

If UK converts a 4th and 1 the game is over. If they don't convert, they leave a bad offense needing to go 90 yards to win. With the FG you risk a block and return (rare for sure) but you also allow Vandy a return opportunity and almost certainly better field position than had you surrendered the ball on the 10.

Like I said, it's in the book and a win is win but wondering what others thought about this

Peace

My understanding, it was 4th and 2. That's what they said after the game on the radio.

OLD STOLL FIELD GUY!

 

[carl]

Good call by Stoops. They had to do something they hadn't done the whole game get into the end zone. So they had to do that just to tie. If they decided to go for the win they would still have to get three yards on one down which they weren't good at and this scenario gives us another opportunity to make a defensive play to win. His decision minimizes the chance to lose considering the possibility of a long shot, i.e. Vandy getting into the end zone.

 

[Poetax]

The biggest plus to kicking the field goal is we won. But the OP brings up some things that I remembered from watching the replay on that last series where we kicked the field goal. On 3 different plays we hiked the ball with 10 or more seconds on the play clock, why? If we run the clock down under 5 seconds on every play, there wouldn't have been time left for just a play or two. These are things that the HC, the staff, and the QB should be doing at this stage of the game.

 

[theoledog]

First let me offer the old cliche "a win is a win". But I have not seen this subject posted and I'm wondering how others feel about it.

UK leads 17-13, 4th and 1 on Vandy 10 with about 1:40 to play. UK kicks a FG to take a 20-13 lead. Why a FG instead of going for it?

Vandy was going to have to score a TD to win whether the score was 17-13 or 20-13. I say win (not tie) because had they scored on their last drive I feel pretty certain they would have gone for 2 and the win vice a tie. IMO, it would have been foolish for Vandy to get into a OT "shoot out" situation with their worse than pathetic offense.

If UK converts a 4th and 1 the game is over. If they don't convert, they leave a bad offense needing to go 90 yards to win. With the FG you risk a block and return (rare for sure) but you also allow Vandy a return opportunity and almost certainly better field position than had you surrendered the ball on the 10.

Like I said, it's in the book and a win is win but wondering what others thought about this

Peace

I kinda wondered the same but I'm just a coach potato.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I had to quit watching momentarily after the FG and didn't see the kickoff or anything that happened until Vandy was at the 20. How short was our kickoff? Georgia did a short kickoff to TN prior to the hail mary that cost them the game so not a fan of playing not to lose.

I don't think UGA did a short kickoff in the Tennessee game. They had a 15 yard penalty that put them kicking off from the 25, so the kick off looked short.

 

[Cats_2010]

I don't think UGA did a short kickoff in the Tennessee game. They had a 15 yard penalty that put them kicking off from the 25, so the kick off looked short.

All I could tell from the plays portion of the game was that the kickoff was fielded on the 30 yard line with a 20 yard return. Georgia had a 5 yard penalty to boot putting them at the 45 before the final play. Even with the 15 yard penalty getting the ball to the 30 was still not a full kickoff...had to be a pooch kick of sorts instead of just kicking the ball as deep as they could.

 

[etowncatfan]

One thing no one is pointing to. A 7 point lead adds less pressure on your defense to make plays IMO. The pressure is placed on the Vandy offense to produce. Up only 4 then there is more pressure on the defense to stop Vandy or you lose. So it was the right call.

 

[Bluetick2100]

I had the same thought as well about the dropped INT's. Also, the missed fumble recovery, botched block on the punt, as bad as they looked I couldn't help but think after the game that in years past UK loses a game because of those types of errors.

Both teams left some points on the board, but that happens in every game. Just glad the defense did their part and the run game looked good.

Let's not forget Webb was starting to run the ball very well and then he sprain his ankle.