My recollection is that the last 4th and 1 was actually 4th and 2 (or closer to 2 than 1). So, I thought Stoops made the right call in kicking FG to go up 7. In a true 4th and 1 a few moments earlier, he did elect to go for it, so I don't think he was being overly conservative at that point in the game.
End of game strategy...
- Thread starter WildCard
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My recollection is that the last 4th and 1 was actually 4th and 2 (or closer to 2 than 1). So, I thought Stoops made the right call in kicking FG to go up 7. In a true 4th and 1 a few moments earlier, he did elect to go for it, so I don't think he was being overly conservative at that point in the game.
A variable not entered into the record on whether this was a good decision or not is this...how many timeouts did Vandy have? If they had one or less I might have been inclined to go for it with some form of an option play, whether it be a zone read or a run/pass option.
Or how about the UK QB playing with a bad throwing wrist...just sayin. Injuries are part of the game.
Thought he made the right call.
The last 4th down was way too close and although SJ made a great stretch I think we need to work in that scenario more. Seems like they arent getting upfield quick enough and turning what looks like a sure conversion into a replay needing scenario.
The last 4th down was way too close and although SJ made a great stretch I think we need to work in that scenario more. Seems like they arent getting upfield quick enough and turning what looks like a sure conversion into a replay needing scenario.
I think it was the right call,I wish we had come after the QB a little more right out of the gate on the last series.
Thanks to all for a decent football discussion without any name calling, well, almost without any name calling.
There seems to be a board consensus that kicking the FG was the "right" thing to do. I asked for your thoughts and I won't try to change anyone's minds..but I still don't see it that way. [winking] Just to recap...
> Four point lead or 7 point lead, Vandy still needed a TD. IOW, the FG had no bearing on the impending outcome... the outcome would be determined exclusively by the Cat's defense keeping Vandy out of the EZ.
> 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 made no difference. The meaningful difference would be where Vandy gets the ball to start their final drive, in this case, on or about their own 10 yard line. I did not see the KO as we were walking down to watch the last drive on the monitors. Per play by play, Vandy took over on their own 28. That is a difference of +18 yards of field position.
> Vandy had no TOs
Given these conditions, going for it on 4th and whatever still makes the most sense to me (but that's just me).
Peace
There seems to be a board consensus that kicking the FG was the "right" thing to do. I asked for your thoughts and I won't try to change anyone's minds..but I still don't see it that way. [winking] Just to recap...
> Four point lead or 7 point lead, Vandy still needed a TD. IOW, the FG had no bearing on the impending outcome... the outcome would be determined exclusively by the Cat's defense keeping Vandy out of the EZ.
> 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 made no difference. The meaningful difference would be where Vandy gets the ball to start their final drive, in this case, on or about their own 10 yard line. I did not see the KO as we were walking down to watch the last drive on the monitors. Per play by play, Vandy took over on their own 28. That is a difference of +18 yards of field position.
> Vandy had no TOs
Given these conditions, going for it on 4th and whatever still makes the most sense to me (but that's just me).
Peace
You don't get the first down - 6 pts can beat you.
You make the FG - 6 pts cannot beat you
enough said
You make the FG - 6 pts cannot beat you
enough said
But 6 point + a PAT will beat you. So don't you want to make it harder for them to get the 6 than hope you can block the PAT? [winking]
Peace
We were up 4 (17-13)
PAT only to tie
I honestly get where you are coming from, and if it was a 45-40 game your point would make more sense.
But in this game - Vandy only had 1 offensive TD - so kicking to go up 7 was IMO the only choice
I wouldn't have faulted him a bit for going for it and I probably would have because that's how I am. However, he absolutely made the right decision.
PRP is correct, Wildcard incorrect.
FG forces a TD and XP to tie, 2P to win...Vandy would have to at least execute another play after the TD to extend the game.
If Wildcard thought the lead was 3 and a FG would've only stretched it to 6, then the FG is still the correct call. Taking a FG chance away for the tie would've also been a huge deal. Leads don't go from 4 points to 6 points very often, but if they did then Wildcard would have an argument.
Also, 4th and 1 vs 4th and 2 does make a difference based on the conversion rate of each. About 10% lower success rate with the extra yard added.
FG forces a TD and XP to tie, 2P to win...Vandy would have to at least execute another play after the TD to extend the game.
If Wildcard thought the lead was 3 and a FG would've only stretched it to 6, then the FG is still the correct call. Taking a FG chance away for the tie would've also been a huge deal. Leads don't go from 4 points to 6 points very often, but if they did then Wildcard would have an argument.
Also, 4th and 1 vs 4th and 2 does make a difference based on the conversion rate of each. About 10% lower success rate with the extra yard added.
Yes he would,another big if,if we had gone for it and not made it I promise you that Vandy scores a T.D somehow.
The answer lies in the Great Big Book of Kentucky Football History. If we'd gone for it and failed, Vandy's very next play would have been a blown coverage 90 yard touchdown for the win. That's just the way it works for Kentucky. Miss an extra point? We're going to lose by one. Have a touchdown called back by penalty? We're going to lose by less than that score. I've seen it too many times.
I still would have gone for it though. If we can't get one yard, we don't deserve to win.
During the game, my thought was to go for it. I did ask a high school coach what he thought during that time out and after a few seconds, he shook his head and said FG even though he was torn. I too, was concerned about things like a bad snap, block, return, etc. and felt that we could get that one yard. However, without hearing Stoops' explanation, I'd assume the reason to kick was to simply take the points...glad it worked out but I tell ya, watching Vandy drive down the field in such a short period of time was very unnerving.
I don't think there is a right answer. Only the right result. If you come out with the W that is really all that will matter. I myself wanted to go for it to end the game... because I knew Vandy would drive down the field with ease, which they did, which brings me to the decision I was more critical over...
All game long we sent pressure, we mixed it up and shut Vandy down for the most part. Why in God's creation on the last drive do you give up 8+ yards of cushion and send only 3-4 nearly every play? It is the same strategy that has cost team after team games. Prevent (aside from situations where only a few seconds are left on the clock and the other team has a lot of ground to cover) is the dumbest defense to run if you can't keep them in the field of play. Even if you do and they get a first down the clock stops. I'm not saying send a safety on a blitz... but don't go prevent. If not for a dropped TD pass by Vandy the prevent would have worked its magic yet again.
All game long we sent pressure, we mixed it up and shut Vandy down for the most part. Why in God's creation on the last drive do you give up 8+ yards of cushion and send only 3-4 nearly every play? It is the same strategy that has cost team after team games. Prevent (aside from situations where only a few seconds are left on the clock and the other team has a lot of ground to cover) is the dumbest defense to run if you can't keep them in the field of play. Even if you do and they get a first down the clock stops. I'm not saying send a safety on a blitz... but don't go prevent. If not for a dropped TD pass by Vandy the prevent would have worked its magic yet again.
It is WC. I am a go for it guy most of the time as I like to be in control or position to dictate fate rather than hoping. You score get the first down and score and you dictate the outcome by putting it out of reach. You kick the field goal you still have to hope you stop them. We have historically passed on chances to dictate only be kicked in the stomach time after time after time
That said I wasn't dead against kicking the field goal there mostly because it was a little longer than a yard but would have gone to the line of scrimmage like I was going for it to draw them offside first.
And I don't like the safetly play of going to the wildcat in the last possession. I believe if we had stayed in the read option we would have scored. Once you telegraph that you're only going to run the wildcat with a field goal in the back pocket we were easier to stop as Vandy just dug in.
But no FG still forces a TD to win. Either way, Vandy needs a TD to win. So (for me anyway) the game comes down to putting Vandy in the worst shape possible to make that TD. 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 or 4th and 9 at the 10 yard line makes no difference because failure to convert leaves Vandy in a big field position hole either way.
Peace
Pretty sure any statistical analysis will show that going for it is the correct play. You lose 50% of the time in OT if they score a TD anyway, and you are a favorite to get the first down in the first place.
"Old school coach" guy goes there but people driven by math don't.
I believe you take the points. If they score, you lose. I absolutely believe we made the right decision. I challenge the prevent defense though. We should have been in our base nickel and put pressure on them to perform. Instead, we kept everything in front and it almost made us go to OT.
Not true with a KY fg it takes a fg and xp to tie, Their kicker had already missed. To win it takes getting into the end zone twice. If uk doesn't convert they lose if vandy gets into Ez .
Furthermore, KY had already converted twice on 4th down that drive I think 2 yards is huge in that case and our 3rd down conversion rate didn't put the odds in our favor. Especially in the red zone with no threat to throw the ball based on SJ performance at that point.
First let me say I don't mean to "argue" the strategy with any posters. Because there was an "option" I was just curious about what fans thought about either option.
Your point is true (that Vandy would need the PAT to tie) but PATs are very highly successful (an anomaly when missed). Furthermore, as i stated in an earlier post, I am inclined to believe that had Vandy scored on that last drive they would have eschewed the FG attempt and gone for the win with a 2 point attempt. Their offense is pathetic but I think they would better served trying to score from the 3 yard line in regulation rather than the 25 in OT. I say again it was not so much about UK converting on 4th down as it was where Vandy would take over should they fail. JMO
Peace
Sorry if it was too argumentative but I was pointing out that it was not just as you said just keep them out of the Ez either way. The opportunities for UK are more abundant with a fg. I agree that field position makes vandys task even more difficult. However, they are still a blown coverage and a Stevie Johnson catch away from disaster. Jmo
If field position is the main argument, usually the first few plays in prevent negate that advantage anyways...15 yard pass over the middle could take 10 secs, and then the field position advantage is over in one play.
I really doubt any stat category says to go for it.JMHO,ask 50 head coaches 35 say take the points,not a scientific poll just my theory.
I created the thread Stoops loves defense after the game stating the same principle.....why not take a couple shots at the EZ to ice the game.....Everyone disagreed. Lucky it didn't cost us the game!