Five reasons to feel confident that this is a different Kentucky team

[UKErik]

As the weeks go by and Kentucky continues to win, many fans probably discount the success for one reason or another. Certainly, that's easy enough to do. Why is this team different? Here are five reasons why my confidence in the Cats continues to grow;

1. Dominant performances vs. league opponents. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams blunders have robbed Kentucky of monster back-to-back scoreboard beatdowns! Against Mississippi State, all SEC fans know is that UK won on a last second FG. What they probably don't know is that UK outgained MSU by nearly 200 yards and probably would have blown them out had they gone in for the 41-24 lead midway through the 4th quarter. Against Missouri, UK won by 14 but could have won by MUCH more. UK turnovers, a missed FG, a PR giving UM the ball at UK's one, and a late bomb made the game look much closer than it really was. UK also outgained Vandy and South Carolina. Turnovers robbed UK of a 14+ point win against the 'Dores.

2. The defense. Look at UK's last five games, all vs. league opponents (Alabama, SC, VU, State, and Missouri). In 58 possessions (not counting end of half possessions), Kentucky has allowed only ten touchdowns. One of those, one was a one yard drive after a punt return. Another was a short field for State after a UK turnover. Against Missouri (the #11 offense in the nation heading into the game), UK held Missouri in the low 300's in yards deep into the 4th quarter. In addition to the one yard drive, MU scored on a broken play (when Lock stepped up and hit the WR down the sideline late in the 1st half) and one long pass. Overall, UK's defense was VERY good last week.

3. The running game. Kentucky ranks 30th nationally running the football. They might be near the top ten had they not had the misfortune of playing Alabama and Florida. The Cats have three good backs (and two tremendous ones). The OL has developed into one of the 4-5 best in the SEC. Toth is certainly an all-SEC candidate at C. Last weekend, they turned a mismatch on paper into a mismatch between the hash marks. Teams that take advantage of those mismatches are generally good football teams.

4. Confidence/effort. I thought the Cats played with a certain swagger against Missouri. It seemed as if they expected to go into Columbia and rout the Tigers. Also, this team plays their asses off. You saw it when they were down big at Alabama. UK continued to fight as if they were playing in a one possession game.

5. The Alabama game. Fans generally discount games like that as "Alabama was just going through the motions" (or whatever). Alabama is steam rolling just about everyone. Yet, if Stephen Johnson hits Conrad on that seam route AND doesn't give away six on the fumble, that game could have been 10-10 at the half. Kentucky played a very strong first half. They played hard throughout. More impressive, after losing that game, the Cats have won three straight while out-gaining each opponent.

GBB!!!

 

[UKCatNnc]

Thanks UKErik. It is good to see this team play so well, and to improve each week. Go Cats!!

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

Totally agree OP.

For me, the Mizzou game was a turning point. In the past, that is the game UK would have lost.

Why? Because UK football is historically about choking and blowing momentum whenever we've gotten any in SEC play.

To hammer a Mizzou team after beating Miss State, Vandy, and SC is different.....VERY different for a UK football program.

Mark Stoops even acts like, looks like, more of a Head Coach on the sideline.

I am really enjoying this and cannot believe my eyes when I see a UK team pounding the ball up the middle between tackles on 5 consecutive running plays.

That is music to my eyes.

:smiley:

 

[carolinacat]

Based on the S&P+ stats used in SBNation, and by Footballoutsiders.com, UK is ranked 8th nationally in rushing efficiency. Interesting that UGA is 24th nationally in rushing defense efficiency. Something has to give. UGA is ranked 89th in passing defensive efficiency. We'll have to be able to throw it a bit to beat them.

 

[K_TIME]

UK has been dominate on the OL side of the trenches...that usually doesn't happen. Even with Little, Pinner, we didn't roll up big rushing games week over week into 6 games like we've done so far.

 

[KWilt43atbuzz]

We may just throw all over JawJaw ...

 

[docholiday51]

We certainly look like a different team and are playing that way as well,hopefully we can keep it rolling at home next week.On the other side of the coin we have been thru a 3 game stretch of win or else and lo and behold we did win,but now with that said and done do we let down a bit?

All of a sudden UGA is a winnable game but we probably have to play our best game to date to do it. What do you think the mindset of the Cats will be this Saturday?

 

[UKErik]

I don't think UK will have to play anything close to perfect to win. There's a reason Georgia nearly lost to Missouri and did lose to Vanderbilt (at home). Clearly, they'll have to play well to win.

I would think the mindset will be similar to what we've seen recently. They're playing with a ton of confidence. They know what's on the line. I think Commonwealth will be close to packed. It should be an exciting night.

GBB!!!

 

[Kooky Kats_anon]

The biggest difference in this team and the past ones, is we go 8 deep on the OLine. This time of year we're usually ground to powder with injuries and getting pounded as the schedule year presses on.

I just want to beat Louisville.

 

[Marine_In_VA]

We certainly look like a different team and are playing that way as well,hopefully we can keep it rolling at home next week.On the other side of the coin we have been thru a 3 game stretch of win or else and lo and behold we did win,but now with that said and done do we let down a bit?

All of a sudden UGA is a winnable game but we probably have to play our best game to date to do it. What do you think the mindset of the Cats will be this Saturday?

A chance at the SECE is on the line. This may not be a win or else game, but I can't imagine it could get much bigger for the Cats than that. Night game at home. I say they come out fired up and lay it all out there.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Johnson missing Conrad against Bama was a gigantic play. Was a td. He's missed that throw more often than not, and it's open EVERY TIME.

 

[docholiday51]

A chance at the SECE is on the line. This may not be a win or else game, but I can't imagine it could get much bigger for the Cats than that. Night game at home. I say they come out fired up and lay it all out there.

You are probably right but having the pressure on this young bunch game after game would wear on a veteran team.We are to some degree playing with house money(as far as a bowl goes) so maybe we can let it all hang out.

 

[fromthe25ydline]

Look for UGa load up the box and to blitz SJohnson.

 

[308955]

Good stuff, as usual, Erik. A big part of the effort is this group's mental toughness. This team could've folded shop after the Florida debacle, after the late Mississippi St. touchdown or, as past UK teams, found a way to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory against SC or Vandy. They just keep grinding, though, without regard for the previous play. Good to see from what was perceived to be a fragile group for some time.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Look for UGa load up the box and to blitz SJohnson.

That's been everyone's game plan since the nm game.

We've been running the ball well despite that. Difference being, UT and UGA may have the players to make sure that doesn't happen

 

[3kidsandme]

Look for UGa load up the box and to blitz SJohnson.

That would not be smart. We would kill them with screens and blitzing means no second level defenders against Boom and Snell not a good idea

 

[JasonRDunn]

Look for UGa load up the box and to blitz SJohnson.

This. SJ will have to hit some quick hitters (and not interceptions by the CB reading his eyes and jumping the route) to keep the Ga defense from sitting in our backfield all game long.

 

[bluedog79]

I got 5 reasons:

1. benny snell
2. Benny snell
3. Benny Snell
4. BenNy SneLl
5. BENNY GOT DAMN SNELL.

Tied for 1st among running backs in the SEC for running touchdowns with 8. He will finish #1 by a mile. I predict 14+ touchdowns .

 

[catmanC15]

You are probably right but having the pressure on this young bunch game after game would wear on a veteran team.We are to some degree playing with house money(as far as a bowl goes) so maybe we can let it all hang out.

These guys might be too young to realize that this stretch of games should be wearing on them. I'm proud of this team. They could've just quit after week two, hell even after week three when we could've lost to NMSU, but they haven't. They kind of remind me of a boxer. Got hit in the mouth a few times, then decided to start doing the hitting. I like it. :boxing:[banana]

 

[docholiday51]

These guys might be too young to realize that this stretch of games should be wearing on them. I'm proud of this team. They could've just quit after week two, hell even after week three when we could've lost to NMSU, but they haven't. They kind of remind me of a boxer. Got hit in the mouth a few times, then decided to start doing the hitting. I like it. :boxing:[banana]

Our very own Rocky story"Yo,coach we're tired of getting beat up can we start punching back?"

This team has done something that few UK teams have done in the past they have fought back and won most of the 50/50 games.We are kinda in uncharted territory with this team,we aren't sure what we have but we know it is a lot better than we thought it was earlier this year

We got a QB that couldn't start for anyone on our schedule,sometimes can't hit the broad side of a barn with a 10 yard pass and thinks the football is a hot potato but he manages to pick up wins.

UK football is still interesting in Nov,let that sink in,we can make a case for winning the SEC east and have people take it seriously

 

[BlueRattie_rivals]

Totally agree OP. . . Mark Stoops even acts like, looks like, more of a Head Coach on the sideline.

:smiley:

So much of that "head coach" demeanor is a matter of trust. In his first few seasons, Stoops simply couldn't trust that the things that "should" happen from day to day--even play to play--were going to happen. Dawson was an unprofessional loose cannon. With Gran, Stoops knows he's getting a well-prepared game plan and sound decision making. With disciplined leadership on the field from Toth, a more mature Boom, and the stead hand on defense, Stoops knows that he can trust his guys on the field. Trust breeds confidence, and Stoops has that right now.

 

[Oldtrainer_rivals]

5 reasons:
New d.c. Mark Stoops
New o.c. Eddie Gran
9 deep physical o.linemen
3 down hill running backs
Much improving physical d. front

 

[cardkilla_rivals379685]

I'd add making winning plays and overcoming adversity to that list. Cats have overcame a ton of adversity to win during this stretch. A mental toughness we've not seen in awhile around here.

 

[Deeeefense]

Johnson missing Conrad against Bama was a gigantic play. Was a td. He's missed that throw more often than not, and it's open EVERY TIME.

Not to nitpick, he didn't really miss Conrad the ball was tipped by Bama. Otherwise Conrad has a walk-in TD.

 

[Deeeefense]

As I recall we actually were ahead of Mizzou 35-7 starting the 4th quarter but we started letting the air out (a little too early IMO), and Mizzou was able to get the ball back quickly and score a couple of times. After we got to 35 we didn't appear to be trying to score anymore. I think had we continued to play our regular game the margin would have been wider.

 

[reflaine]

The bye week was at a perfect time for this team. Broke up the pressure if must win games.

One reason I think the run game has been so good is boom and benny both have big play potential. It's hard to bring a safety for run support knowing a big play can happen. We still spread out the defense and you have to at least account 1on1 outside. Having a qb who can move also keeps linebackers from completely selling out. With badet outside also helps keep safety in middle of field. Mizzu brought down the safety a couple times and boom broke one and badet has one on one both for tds

 

[maysvilleky]

Look for UGa load up the box and to blitz SJohnson.

I think the announcer in the Missouri game called it a couple of times, but if Johnson sees the LB or DE crashing in to stop the inside run, Johnson needs to pull the hand off and take it around the end. Of course he needs to hold on to the ball and get down or out of bounds before the defense nails him, but I can see that working for some big yards.

 

[WeepNoMore]

As the weeks go by and Kentucky continues to win, many fans probably discount the success for one reason or another. Certainly, that's easy enough to do. Why is this team different? Here are five reasons why my confidence in the Cats continues to grow;

1. Dominant performances vs. league opponents. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams blunders have robbed Kentucky of monster back-to-back scoreboard beatdowns! Against Mississippi State, all SEC fans know is that UK won on a last second FG. What they probably don't know is that UK outgained MSU by nearly 200 yards and probably would have blown them out had they gone in for the 41-24 lead midway through the 4th quarter. Against Missouri, UK won by 14 but could have won by MUCH more. UK turnovers, a missed FG, a PR giving UM the ball at UK's one, and a late bomb made the game look much closer than it really was. UK also outgained Vandy and South Carolina. Turnovers robbed UK of a 14+ point win against the 'Dores.

2. The defense. Look at UK's last five games, all vs. league opponents (Alabama, SC, VU, State, and Missouri). In 58 possessions (not counting end of half possessions), Kentucky has allowed only ten touchdowns. One of those, one was a one yard drive after a punt return. Another was a short field for State after a UK turnover. Against Missouri (the #11 offense in the nation heading into the game), UK held Missouri in the low 300's in yards deep into the 4th quarter. In addition to the one yard drive, MU scored on a broken play (when Lock stepped up and hit the WR down the sideline late in the 1st half) and one long pass. Overall, UK's defense was VERY good last week.

3. The running game. Kentucky ranks 30th nationally running the football. They might be near the top ten had they not had the misfortune of playing Alabama and Florida. The Cats have three good backs (and two tremendous ones). The OL has developed into one of the 4-5 best in the SEC. Toth is certainly an all-SEC candidate at C. Last weekend, they turned a mismatch on paper into a mismatch between the hash marks. Teams that take advantage of those mismatches are generally good football teams.

4. Confidence/effort. I thought the Cats played with a certain swagger against Missouri. It seemed as if they expected to go into Columbia and rout the Tigers. Also, this team plays their asses off. You saw it when they were down big at Alabama. UK continued to fight as if they were playing in a one possession game.

5. The Alabama game. Fans generally discount games like that as "Alabama was just going through the motions" (or whatever). Alabama is steam rolling just about everyone. Yet, if Stephen Johnson hits Conrad on that seam route AND doesn't give away six on the fumble, that game could have been 10-10 at the half. Kentucky played a very strong first half. They played hard throughout. More impressive, after losing that game, the Cats have won three straight while out-gaining each opponent.

GBB!!!

I'd like to add a 6th reason, and IMHO the most significant reason, to feel confident. In fact, IMHO, it is the basis for three or four of the factors you mention.

In a word it's FUNDAMENTALS!!!!

Some posters are probably a little tired of my emphasis on fundamentals. But the plain and simple fact is POOR FUNDAMENTALS = LOSING FOOTBALL!!!

Since the end of the Brooks Era upto and including the beginning of this season, UK has played with poor-to-very-poor football fundamentals in both player execution and in-game coaching. Arm tackling, missed blocks, dropped passes and interceptions, untimely penalties, poorly thrown passes, inexplicable third-down play calling, misalignments, failures in gap containment, failure to make halftime adjustments, etc. have been the norm.

Beginning with Alabama, of all teams, I have been seeing game-to-game improvement in this extremely important prerequisite for playing winning football.

Clearly, we are not quite there yet (untimely turnovers, special-teams' lapses, end-of-half letdowns come quickly to mind). But most obviously and most importantly
tackling and blocking, proper alignment, elimination of unwarranted penalties, decision-making of coaches and players, and gap integrity are vastly improved since the start of the season.

If we can sustain the gains we have made and continue to improve, I believe that the remainder of our games, including road games against UT and UofL, are winnable!!!

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Not to nitpick, he didn't really miss Conrad the ball was tipped by Bama. Otherwise Conrad has a walk-in TD.

You're right. He's missed on the other throws. That play is wide open every game but we struggle to complete it

 

[Soupbean]

To me the two most telling things that convince me that this is a better team and not just one getting easy wins are:
1. The way we are winning. We are winning with a consistent MO and style each game that includes power foundational football. When you win the same way it's not coincidence its a pattern and more what you really are instead of winning by getting a few big plays and a ton of turnovers in your favor.

2. The players that are in the middle of our turnaround are guys that we really didn't think were ready to play but have shown they are. Which means to be we had better depth than I thought.

 

[bigbluehomer]

Not to nitpick, he didn't really miss Conrad the ball was tipped by Bama. Otherwise Conrad has a walk-in TD.

Don't know if finding CJ is a line of sight problem or not, but seems like the attempts are either knocked down by DL or overthrown.

Maybe it's time for a Babe Parilli jump pass. LOL!

 

[WildCard]

Based on the S&P+ stats used in SBNation, and by Footballoutsiders.com, UK is ranked 8th nationally in rushing efficiency. Interesting that UGA is 24th nationally in rushing defense efficiency. Something has to give. UGA is ranked 89th in passing defensive efficiency. We'll have to be able to throw it a bit to beat them.

I like stats but I get pretty frustrated and confused with Football Outsiders Innovative Stats. I find it awkward to navigate their site as well as find good explanations of their so called "innovative" stats, things such as "rushing efficiency". I presume this is Rushing S&P+ which shows UK ranked #8. But what does that actually mean?

Peace

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Don't know if finding CJ is a line of sight problem or not, but seems like the attempts are either knocked down by DL or overthrown.

Maybe it's time for a Babe Parilli jump pass. LOL!

SJ throws from below his shoulder practically...so the low release point allows for tipped passes and also sends the balls trajectory on an upward path leaving the ball high on those short passes. This throwing motion probably helps him drop the deeps balls in nice and high though.

 

[Rhavic]

Teams have been doing this for a long time now, as noted above. Here recently, they've been doing it much more often, and that's when Johnson has been throwing guys open and breaking off big play after big play.

 

[Beatle Bum]

Good stuff.

The TOs are a problem and need to be stopped. Bama, Vandy and MSU all scored off TOs. MSU got another short field off a TO. Mizzou, likewise, got a short field off a TO. That will lead to a close game loss if it is not stopped.

 

[Oldtrainer_rivals]

I like stats but I get pretty frustrated and confused with Football Outsiders Innovative Stats. I find it awkward to navigate their site as well as find good explanations of their so called "innovative" stats, things such as "rushing efficiency". I presume this is Rushing S&P+ which shows UK ranked #8. But what does that actually mean?

Peace

You the stat man frustrated, naw I don't believe it. A little narcissistic but never confused.

 

[Soupbean]

SJ throws from below his shoulder practically...so the low release point allows for tipped passes and also sends the balls trajectory on an upward path leaving the ball high on those short passes. This throwing motion probably helps him drop the deeps balls in nice and high though.

Exactly ^^^^^^^ all around. Was yelling that at the TV the last two weeks. He's got to learn to get on top of the ball better especially on throws over the line.

 

[tdcat]

That's been everyone's game plan since the nm game.

We've been running the ball well despite that. Difference being, UT and UGA may have the players to make sure that doesn't happen

The UT rushing defense is terrible. It ranks below, Vandy, S. Car. and Mississippi State. It even ranks below UK's. Our strength, rushing O meets their weakness rushing D. I really like the sound of that.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

The UT rushing defense is terrible. It ranks below, Vandy, S. Car. and Mississippi State. It even ranks below UK's. Our strength, rushing O meets their weakness rushing D. I really like the sound of that.

I like the sound of it too. Let's hope their talent doesn't decide to show up and play to their potential.

 

[vhcat70]

As the weeks go by and Kentucky continues to win, many fans probably discount the success for one reason or another. Certainly, that's easy enough to do. Why is this team different? Here are five reasons why my confidence in the Cats continues to grow;

1. Dominant performances vs. league opponents. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams blunders have robbed Kentucky of monster back-to-back scoreboard beatdowns! Against Mississippi State, all SEC fans know is that UK won on a last second FG. What they probably don't know is that UK outgained MSU by nearly 200 yards and probably would have blown them out had they gone in for the 41-24 lead midway through the 4th quarter. Against Missouri, UK won by 14 but could have won by MUCH more. UK turnovers, a missed FG, a PR giving UM the ball at UK's one, and a late bomb made the game look much closer than it really was. UK also outgained Vandy and South Carolina. Turnovers robbed UK of a 14+ point win against the 'Dores.

GBB!!!

Wins against MSU/V/SC were hardly dominant. Yes, we were better & thus would expect to have out gained them. Iffin doesn't count. MO, sure. But no need to exaggerate the others beyond winning.