Freeze/Frost Conditions Possible for NW Areas tonight

[RU848789]

Fairly late-in-the-season cold snap with freeze warnings (dark blue) up for the Poconos, Sussex, W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and almost everywhere N/W of there) and frost advisories (light blue) up for Morris, Hunterdon, Warren, and much of the rest of NE PA. Strong high pressure, clear skies and diminishing winds, allowing for strong radiational cooling will send temps plummeting below 32F in the warning areas and near 32F in the advisory areas. Could also possibly see scattered frost in areas like NW Somerset and N Bergen. Bring in any tender vegetation. Fortunately, the red flag warnings for fire risk for much of SNJ/Pine Barrens come down at 8 pm tonight, as winds die down. Apart from some showers on Saturday, our stretch of fantastic weather looks to continue through the end of next week.

 

[hankee18]

Thankfully I'm late to my garden game this year. Got some early season radishes in but have yet to start my main crops. I'm in E. Passaic but still close enough to worry

 

[Nycrusupporter]

I thought this was going to be some weird Auburn/Nebraska thread.

 

[rurichdog]

Old Man Winter will not be denied. After the warmest April ever too.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Fairly late-in-the-season cold snap with freeze warnings (dark blue) up for the Poconos, Sussex, W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and almost everywhere N/W of there) and frost advisories (light blue) up for Morris, Hunterdon, Warren, and much of the rest of NE PA. Strong high pressure, clear skies and diminishing winds, allowing for strong radiational cooling will send temps plummeting below 32F in the warning areas and near 32F in the advisory areas. Could also possibly see scattered frost in areas like NW Somerset and N Bergen. Bring in any tender vegetation. Fortunately, the red flag warnings for fire risk for much of SNJ/Pine Barrens come down at 8 pm tonight, as winds die down. Apart from some showers on Saturday, our stretch of fantastic weather looks to continue through the end of next week.

Really?

 

[RU848789]

Excellent NWS forecast, as most of the freeze warnings and frost advisories verified, especially in NJ, as per the map below (there was even scattered frost in the Pine Barrens), with numerous record cold temps recorded in the region, as per the graphic (from donsutherland on AmericanWx). Likely out last freeze/frost concern until the fall.

 

[Section124]

They had snow in NH this AM. And the frost delay at the PGA. I think early May was still pretty cold in 2020.

 

[RU848789]

They had snow in NH this AM. And the frost delay at the PGA. I think early May was still pretty cold in 2020.

Yep, on 5/9 /2020 Newark tied its latest ever trace of snowfall and NYC also had a trace (but once had a trace on 5/10/77); on that day a bunch of towns in NWNJ/NEPA/Hudson Valley got a coating to an inch. Crazy.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2020/05/nj-just-got-some-snow-in-may-has-this-ever-happened-before.html

 

[Section124]

Yep, on 5/9 /2020 Newark tied its latest ever trace of snowfall and NYC also had a trace (but once had a trace on 5/10/77); on that day a bunch of towns in NWNJ/NEPA/Hudson Valley got a coating to an inch. Crazy.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2020/05/nj-just-got-some-snow-in-may-has-this-ever-happened-before.html

Thanks for that reminder. I took video of it snowing up here in Bergen on 5/9/20. That is the latest I remember it snowing. I was 10 at the time for the 5/10/77, but don't remember that one.

 

[RUJohnny]

Excellent NWS forecast, as most of the freeze warnings and frost advisories verified, especially in NJ, as per the map below (there was even scattered frost in the Pine Barrens), with numerous record cold temps recorded in the region, as per the graphic (from donsutherland on AmericanWx). Likely out last freeze/frost concern until the fall.

Unfortunately I have a first hand account that this was not an excellent forecast. I lost 20 acres of grapevine last night to freeze, not frost, on the border of Hunterdon and Mercer Counties. 31 at the top of the post, 28 on the ground. Another winery in Robbinsville had frost damage. So they were 50 miles too far north with the freeze warnings and 50 miles too far north with the frost advisory. I found it to be a lazy forecast. At 5pm dewpoints were below 30F almost everywhere north of the AC Expressway with a northerly breeze still advecting drier air in. It was obvious to me that the colder Nam3k and FV3 were going to be correct, and NWS grids were 3-4F too warm.

 

[RUnTeX]

lost 20 acres of grapevine last night to freeze

Sucks to hear. Besides not being able to turn that grape into product to sell, is there any way to lessen the impact on your wine business? Do you have to raise prices on what you have in production to make up for the lost grapes?

 

[RU848789]

Unfortunately I have a first hand account that this was not an excellent forecast. I lost 20 acres of grapevine last night to freeze, not frost, on the border of Hunterdon and Mercer Counties. 31 at the top of the post, 28 on the ground. Another winery in Robbinsville had frost damage. So they were 50 miles too far north with the freeze warnings and 50 miles too far north with the frost advisory. I found it to be a lazy forecast. At 5pm dewpoints were below 30F almost everywhere north of the AC Expressway with a northerly breeze still advecting drier air in. It was obvious to me that the colder Nam3k and FV3 were going to be correct, and NWS grids were 3-4F too warm.

That sucks, sorry to hear it. Clearly, the NWS was off in western NJ, but they did nail temperature predictions for NWNJ/Poconos, the 95 corridor, NENJ/NYC Metro, the Pine Barrens and the Hudson Valley. So, overall good, but some misses.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Really?

Global Cooling

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Unfortunately I have a first hand account that this was not an excellent forecast. I lost 20 acres of grapevine last night to freeze, not frost, on the border of Hunterdon and Mercer Counties. 31 at the top of the post, 28 on the ground. Another winery in Robbinsville had frost damage. So they were 50 miles too far north with the freeze warnings and 50 miles too far north with the frost advisory. I found it to be a lazy forecast. At 5pm dewpoints were below 30F almost everywhere north of the AC Expressway with a northerly breeze still advecting drier air in. It was obvious to me that the colder Nam3k and FV3 were going to be correct, and NWS grids were 3-4F too warm.

Sorry to hear that

 

[rurichdog]

Unfortunately I have a first hand account that this was not an excellent forecast. I lost 20 acres of grapevine last night to freeze, not frost, on the border of Hunterdon and Mercer Counties. 31 at the top of the post, 28 on the ground. Another winery in Robbinsville had frost damage. So they were 50 miles too far north with the freeze warnings and 50 miles too far north with the frost advisory. I found it to be a lazy forecast. At 5pm dewpoints were below 30F almost everywhere north of the AC Expressway with a northerly breeze still advecting drier air in. It was obvious to me that the colder Nam3k and FV3 were going to be correct, and NWS grids were 3-4F too warm.

What kind of frost protection does your vineyard have? Do you guys have smudge pots or do you run sprinklers?

 

[RUJohnny]

What kind of frost protection does your vineyard have? Do you guys have smudge pots or do you run sprinklers?

We have a frost fan, basically a giant propeller that vaccuums air off the ground and thrusts it aloft. Theoretically it mixes the lower few hundred feet and protects about 4 acres.

 

[RUJohnny]

Sucks to hear. Besides not being able to turn that grape into product to sell, is there any way to lessen the impact on your wine business? Do you have to raise prices on what you have in production to make up for the lost grapes?

Unionville is a New Jersey winery in the true sense- most of what we make we grow, and we buy in NJ grown grapes. Some NJ wineries will truck in fruit, juice, or even finished wine from outside the state and make that a part of their products.

So I could do something like that for cash flow and devalue my brand, I could contract for a cycle, raise prices, cut costs, sell a heck of a lot more weddings which are obviously not dependent on grapes.