I used ESPN's FPI probabilities for all 12 games of all 16 SEC teams. I'm going to update my simulation every week with results and updated future game probabilities.
It is interesting how variable the results are.
Simulation 1 (fairly typical result):
Oklahoma beat Tennessee in the head-to-head to earn a spot against Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Simulation 2 (SEC beats itself up):
How many (if any) 9-3 SEC teams are in the CFP in this scenario?
Simulation 3 (crowded at the top):
Does a 10-2 SEC team get left out in this scenario?
Simulation 4 (SEC tiebreaker hell):
I think Tennessee would emerge as the #2 team: Tennessee beat Alabama, Alabama beat South Carolina, South Carolina beat Ole Miss. Someone check me on that. I could be confused as to how they would handle a four-way tie.
My takeaways:
It is interesting how variable the results are.
Simulation 1 (fairly typical result):
Oklahoma beat Tennessee in the head-to-head to earn a spot against Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Simulation 2 (SEC beats itself up):
How many (if any) 9-3 SEC teams are in the CFP in this scenario?
Simulation 3 (crowded at the top):
Does a 10-2 SEC team get left out in this scenario?
Simulation 4 (SEC tiebreaker hell):
I think Tennessee would emerge as the #2 team: Tennessee beat Alabama, Alabama beat South Carolina, South Carolina beat Ole Miss. Someone check me on that. I could be confused as to how they would handle a four-way tie.
My takeaways:
- Fairly likely that the new SEC tiebreaker rules will be put to use to determine who plays in Atlanta, possibly between more than two teams that didn't all play each other.
- It will largely depend on what happens outside of the SEC, but don't be surprised by either CFP scenario: A 10-2 SEC team is left out OR a 9-3 SEC team is included.
