No offense to this board, but no one from the SEC East should be tossing up wins except Tennessee and Georgia and even they have been blowing it the last couple of years. Everyone is too close to be saying someone is a win except for your fcs opponents.
Is 8-4 Too Optimistic?
- Thread starter millayc
- Start date
Do you have an address for them, they should have quite a few openings by midseason.
I think I read somewhere that UK is getting closer and closer to being better than Georgia.... two or three more years and we'll be playing for the East, not Georgia....
NO! You are right on.... I think UK will go 8-4 and maybe 9-3 with a win over Georgia, or Florida....
Also, giving UL a butt kicking..... If our guys can get through Rick Pitino's women.....
Over the years there have been wildly optimistic predictions about the cats based on hope and little else. This eight win talk stretches an already stretched to the ridiculous preseason blindness.
Sure it would be nice but when a team is only minus 7, at home, against a Conference USA team what are the odds of winning eight despite being in the SEC.
Well this is the internet where crazier ideas are floated so why not say ten wins? The only possible loss being Bama in a too close to call barn burner.
The one thing this thread and others before proves is UK has the most loyal, bordering on insane, non wagering fans in all creation. We are lucky to have them.
Sure it would be nice but when a team is only minus 7, at home, against a Conference USA team what are the odds of winning eight despite being in the SEC.
Well this is the internet where crazier ideas are floated so why not say ten wins? The only possible loss being Bama in a too close to call barn burner.
The one thing this thread and others before proves is UK has the most loyal, bordering on insane, non wagering fans in all creation. We are lucky to have them.
Blue Kool Aid tastes good in the heat of the summer. I've been as guilty as anyone else in the past, but I'm really trying to temper my expectations for 2016 at six wins, and would be delighted if we can do better than that.
Credibility decreases when one doesn't know how many games are on the schedule.
I will continue to say that the only two games that UK has basically zero chance to win are @ bama and @ UT. Other than that, we should have a solid to punchers chance in the rest. And no, I'm not predicting 10 wins but 7 or even 8 are not out of the question.
To the question of the OP, yes, 8-4 is too optimistic ... but it's July - you should be optimistic and looking forward to college football in a little more than a month.
To those who do not get the magazine, Phil Steele has you at #74 in his Power Poll, four spots behind Vanderbilt, one spot ahead of South Carolina, five ahead of Southern Miss. New Mexico State is ranked #124 and of course Austin Peay is not ranked. The rankings of UK's other opponents are:
#1 Alabama
#6 Tennessee
#22 Florida
#23 Louisville
#29 Georgia
#35 Mississippi State
#62 Missouri
#70 Vanderbilt
#74 Kentucky
#75 South Carolina
#79 Southern Miss
#124 New Mexico State
UR Austin Peay
So this means my (grounded) expectation would be 4-8, with a very good chance to improve to 5-7 by knocking off Vanderbilt in Lexington. And of course there is nothing wrong at all with hoping for wins over Mizzou, USCe, Vandy, Southern Miss, NMSU, Austin Peay, plus one more out of those top 5.
The grounded expectation is important to understand, because it tells you whether or not you should be demanding more from your head coach than you are getting at this point in his tenure.
To those who do not get the magazine, Phil Steele has you at #74 in his Power Poll, four spots behind Vanderbilt, one spot ahead of South Carolina, five ahead of Southern Miss. New Mexico State is ranked #124 and of course Austin Peay is not ranked. The rankings of UK's other opponents are:
#1 Alabama
#6 Tennessee
#22 Florida
#23 Louisville
#29 Georgia
#35 Mississippi State
#62 Missouri
#70 Vanderbilt
#74 Kentucky
#75 South Carolina
#79 Southern Miss
#124 New Mexico State
UR Austin Peay
So this means my (grounded) expectation would be 4-8, with a very good chance to improve to 5-7 by knocking off Vanderbilt in Lexington. And of course there is nothing wrong at all with hoping for wins over Mizzou, USCe, Vandy, Southern Miss, NMSU, Austin Peay, plus one more out of those top 5.
The grounded expectation is important to understand, because it tells you whether or not you should be demanding more from your head coach than you are getting at this point in his tenure.
lets talk F O O T B A L L..... Its time and with UK shades on I think we will win 8 games.... I think we beat SM by 24, Fl by 4, NMS by 38, S C. by 14, lose to bama by 18, beat Van. by 21, M. S. by 3, Missouri by 7, lose to Geo, Tn. Beat A.P. and then have a B I G win over LOSERVILLE by 10.... LOVE my Cats. Time to bleed some blue and have a heck of a time........
Of course it is. That's why it's called "grounded" - it's the opinion of a non-fan who isn't listening daily to the hype machine in Lexington that is trying every trick in the book to get people to buy season tickets.
And Steele's magazine is considered the best and most detailed college football magazine available.
Just to add a bit regarding Steel's numbers, he does not publish pre-season Power Poll numbers, only a ranking. There are often less than 1 point differences between some fairly disparate rankings. Furthermore, the numbers do not include home field factors which further "changes the order" of the raw ranking if looking for an expected spread.
As I noted last month, I have found that using his Plus/Minus numbers and adjusting for home field often yields a stunningly close estimate of opening lines. Naturally there are a few misses on the lines (sometimes bad misses) but "overarching" results (i.e., an estimation of overall W/L record) are often very accurate.
To that end, UK projects as a favorite in 4 games (AP not included): USM +9, NM State +32, SC +5 and Vandy +5. They are a 'dawg against: UF -9, AL -23, MSU -2, MO-6, GA -5, TN -19 and UofL -12.
That purely objective rationale "projects" a 5-7 record for the Cats. However a 2 point game (MSU) is statistically a virtual toss up. (A 2 point home 'dawg wins outright 45% of the time.) Steel thinks they pick up at least one more win and end up in a bowl. His grab bag bowl projections have UK against WVA in the Liberty Bowl.
But you knew all this. [winking]
Peace
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Yeah, that does not make it grounded. It simply makes it based upon an opinion that is as much prediction as it is evidenced. But, it serves your narrative, so you roll with it.
Just how many upsets must we count on to win 8?
Of course they must all go our way and that's not UK football tradition during the last half century or so.
If Stoops has changed that then I vote we should rename the stadium and commission statues to be erected.
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Its Tennessee vs Kentucky. They have the better players, the better coach (perhaps debatable), and home field advantage. Can stoops out coach Jones on the road? Can the players handle neyland? And again it's UK vs ut so yeah tough but to crack.
And yeah last year we could have won more games but we also almost lost to eku and ull
Can we win 8? It could happen,but it probably won't (a bowl win might give us 8)It comes down to what Barker can or can't do,is he ready to lead the team on a weekly basis? Do we have a back-up QB that is ready to play at this level? Sure there are other questions such as LB and DL but it begins and ends at QB,do we get enough there to give us a chance to win games that are decided in the 4th qtr.
Of course it's a prediction - just like everything else in this thread. The difference between his predictions and UK fans is that Phil Steele does not care whether UK wins 1 game this year or 15. His motivation is to be the best magazine for college football gamblers, and to that end he goes into tremendous detail on every FBS program in America.
Also, I don't have a "narrative". If Phil Steele's magazine had UK football ranked #1 in his PowerPoll and was favored to beat my Louisville Cardinals by 4 TDs, that would have been what I gave you in my post.
Well Jagah, look for yourself... Who's picked right behind UG in the east, if that's not pushing them for 3rd place, then who is? I did read an article on that, but I can't tell you where it's at.... Georgia is staying the same, or a little worse, while UK is getting stronger and stronger...
1.Tennessee
2 Florida
3 Georgia
4 Kentucky
5 Vanderbilt
6 Missouri
7 South Carolina
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This prediction business is all in fun but a proof of your enthusiasm would be your willingness to wager on wins vs losses this coming season.
Only you know but it's not hard to imagine that break even would bring a big sigh of relief from you.
Considering that the definition of grounded is "well-balanced and sensible" and that an antonym of "grounded" is "fanatical," which has a root of "fan", Steele's prediction is the very definition of "grounded" - the opposite of a "fan-based" prediction.
I chose the word "grounded" purposely, because I have been using Steele's magazine for at least 15 years in order to get a grounded projection of what Louisville's record should be in the upcoming season.
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I'm just saying how on earth would you say in 2 or 3 years anyone would say UK is going to be better positioned than Georgia? I mean, we have better players now, are recruiting better, so you explain it to me.
When you say we are staying the same but UK is getting stronger - do you know we are going to start 3 seniors and will sign a top 5 class this year? You are getting better than that? Its gonna take more than a signing class rated in the 30s to close that gap. Just being real here.
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Let me ask you this. Do you think I got a shot with her, or am I being too optimistic?
If you do, I would like to sign on to be your wing man!