Looks like FBS playoff is lining up to be...
- Thread starter RLSmith
- Start date
Baylor and Washington are probably longshots. Not sure either can get thru their record without a loss and their conferences have taken hits. Houston is also a longshot, but if they win out, I think they have to be in.
I see Bama, OSU and Clemson in the driver seats. I see UL, TAMU and UM in the group mentioned above, depending on how that group performs. The only two teams I think might go undefeated are OSU and Bama.
That said, watch the Huskies and Baylor run the table and create havoc.
I see Bama, OSU and Clemson in the driver seats. I see UL, TAMU and UM in the group mentioned above, depending on how that group performs. The only two teams I think might go undefeated are OSU and Bama.
That said, watch the Huskies and Baylor run the table and create havoc.
16 teams still undefeated. 12 of them from P5 conferences. A lot of it will take care of itself...Ohio St/Michigan/Maryland/Nebraska---Tennessee/Alabama/Texas A&M---Clemson/Miami---Baylor/West Virginia...all still have to play each other in some fashion. Air Force/Boise St play each other also.
I think Houston is in the drivers seat by winning out, but how do you keep an undefeated P5 school out?
I think Houston is in the drivers seat by winning out, but how do you keep an undefeated P5 school out?
Houston will not have a strong resume. They beat Oklahoma but they already have 2 losses. If they beat ul, that means they will have at least 2 losses. The rest of their schedule is pretty pedestrian. They may be left out depending on how things shake out.
Yep. I think statistically speaking its actually likely that UL is the 4th playoff team.
Lets assume that Bama, Clemson and OSU win out and Houston is unbeaten until the UL game.
UL is currently 7th in the polls
- Michigan is ahead of them but still has to play OSU in the last game of the year.
Washington is ahead of them.
- Still have to play @Oregon, @Utah and Cal
Baylor's SOS is very weak but its unlikely that Baylor/WVU finish their conference schedule unbeaten.
Houston is ahead of them
- Still have to play UL in the next to last game of the year.
So...its unlikely that UW navigates their way through the Pac 12 unscathed. Because OSU and Michigan is the last game of the year its highly unlikely a team loses their lat game of the year and still makes the playoffs. Because UL has a true road game against what would be a top 5 team in the next to last game of the year. (When you lose matters) So if UL is sitting at 9-1 going into Houston and #5 in the country and they beat the #4 team in the country (on the road) and then finish the season 11-1...they are likely to be the 4th team in the playoff.
If UW or the Baylor/WVU finish unbeaten...then its a long shot. If either of those teams finish with 1 loss I think UL has a great chance at being the 4th team.
Houston can get in If, they run the table AND at least 2 (probably 3) conference winners have at least 1 loss.
I think the Big XII is on the outside looking in, in no small part because I think Oklahoma may well run that table. Washington has a tough road having to go to Cal and to Utah. If I were putting odds on a conference putting in two...I wouldn't rule out the SEC with Alabama and A&M/or Tennessee.
I disagree that washington is a longshot. get ASU at home and perhaps leach makes a game of Apple Cup, but could see them running the table fairly easy.
You guys evidently didn't watch Washington the other night. They are legit. They will cruise through the rest of the their schedule.
You could be right, of course. If their game against Stanford represents how they play in every game, they could run the board.
The first 3 are almost certain, any team can get upset, but Bama has already beaten the biggest threat they have in the SEC, same can be said for Clemson. The winner of tOSU and Mich will have a test in their championship game, Mich was lucky, maybe not lucky but it was a game that could have gone either way. Watching Washington destroy Stanford last week was impressive, Baylor could end the season 12-0. So in theory the 5 champions of the P5 conferences could all be undefeated and it isn't a huge reach at this point of that happening. If that happens, Baylor gets left out because of no championship game. If that happens Houston gets left out and they have no arguement for why they should have been picked, get in a P5 conference. On second thought, I like all 4 of your picks.
I would kind of disagree on Bama they still have @UT and play A&M. Although I think Bama will win both but anything can happen on a given Saturday. The Big 12 I think is out no matter what their teams do cause the conference as a whole isn't very good. As a UofL fan I have to hope Washington gets tripped up and of course UofL runs the table. Less likely scenario for UofL would be for Clemson to drop two games.
If U of L runs the table then, in all likelihood, will have only one win against a ranked team and will not even be a division winner in their conference. Regardless of how good I believe they may be, I can't see a team in the playoff with that resume.
I tend to agree with this take. Louisville will have to be 11-1 and at least two P5 champions will have to have 2 losses for Louisville to even be seriously considered.
Washington is definitely getting in if they run the table. That team is legit. And if you look at their schedule, the biggest trap games are Cal and Utah? OOC schedule was pathetic, but they'll have more quality wins than UL if they run the table.
If Bama loses one, they're still getting in over UL (or anyone else).
If Clemson loses one, they still have head to head over UL.
UL's win over FSU is looking worse by the day.
A&M is in great position if they beat UT as an 11-1 SEC team with only a loss to Bama has a great case (especially given the fact that they'd have wins over UCLA, UT, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Auburn).
Don't count out Miami. If they beat UNC and FSU and Va Tech, they'll be right there with a chance to beat Clemson in the ACC title game.
Certainly, the national talking heads seem to be enamored by UL for some reason (I suppose it's Lamar Jackson), but I don't think the rest of the year will be as kind to UL b/c they really don't have many chances to make a statement against good teams.
If Bama loses one, they're still getting in over UL (or anyone else).
If Clemson loses one, they still have head to head over UL.
UL's win over FSU is looking worse by the day.
A&M is in great position if they beat UT as an 11-1 SEC team with only a loss to Bama has a great case (especially given the fact that they'd have wins over UCLA, UT, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Auburn).
Don't count out Miami. If they beat UNC and FSU and Va Tech, they'll be right there with a chance to beat Clemson in the ACC title game.
Certainly, the national talking heads seem to be enamored by UL for some reason (I suppose it's Lamar Jackson), but I don't think the rest of the year will be as kind to UL b/c they really don't have many chances to make a statement against good teams.
What if Bama beats UT but then UT wins rematch in SEC championship game? Do they both get in with 1 loss?
The only way UT beats Bama is something like 5+ in turnovers, A&M can put up some points, and Arky can give them a game too, but neither can beat Bama without some breaks. Even if Washington loses one alone the way, will a 1 loss conference champion be omitted in favor of a 1 loss division runner up? And there is the possibility of an undefeated Baylor too, how can a division runner up be put in over an undefeated P5 conference champion. If so, what if the loser of Michigan or tOSU is also a 1 loss team? Then what if the winner loses to Wisconsin, Big10 finishes with 3 1 loss teams? Right now I would think UofL would be no better than 8th, but some of the teams ahead play each other so that will change.
You can rule out Tennessee. Their luck will run out. I still have them losing the next two and probably one more.
Jackson notwithstanding, no one, and I mean no one, wants to see an upjumped midmajor in the playoffs. Not good for TV ratings. Believe me, if it is a close call between Louisville and any state school with a legitimate football history, guess who is left out in the cold? If it's a close call, even a Baylor is going to take priority. The average college football fan has barely heard of Louisville and has no interest in watching them get hammered by the likes of Ohio State etc in the first playoff game.
No one considers Louisville a mid-major and they would be ratings boost because of Lamar Jackson. He's become a phenomenon and people would watch. I'd imagine their game with Clemson carried a good rating and plenty of other games were on to compete with. They will probably be part of ESPN Gameday twice this year if Houston remains undefeated.
The attempt to mask the Louisville peter envy by belittling them is getting pretty awful on the board. They are good, and have been for a good (or decent) for a while now. If they didn't stump their toe against Rutgers in 06 we may have to already deal with them having a NT (I firmly believe that 06 Louisville team would have beat that fraud OSU team they would have faced).
We need to get better and try to match what they are doing and quit putting them down.
Stop attempting to be reasonable. Doesn't work for many here when LV is even mentioned.
According ESPNs FPI...Washington has a 78% chance to beat Oregon,
I want to give this a slow clap.
I want to give this a slow clap.
It's always smart to predict the playoffs four games into the season. Why even bother playing the games at this point.
From Jerry Palm of CBS Sports...the same person that does their NCAA Brackets...his Projected CFP Rankings when they come out 1 November....take it for what it worth...
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have laid waste to their first four opponents, including a dominant performance at Oklahoma.
2. Alabama: The difference between Alabama and Ohio State to this point is that Ole Miss put a scare into the Tide.
3. Clemson: The Tigers have played the best schedule of the top three and have the best win, which came over Louisville on Saturday. Clemson hasn't really put a complete game together yet though.
4. Louisville: Lamar Jackson is still the top contender for the Heisman Trophy despite the loss at Clemson because the Cardinals are piling up points like nobody else.
5. Michigan: The Wolverines haven't left the friendly confines of the Big House yet, but they did pick up a big win over Wisconsin last week.
6. Texas A&M: Kevin Sumlin's seat has cooled off considerably after a 5-0 start that includes wins over UCLA and Arkansas.
7. Tennessee: The Vols have already knocked off Florida and Georgia, their top two competitors in the SEC East. Now, they will test themselves against the West, beginning with a game at Texas A&M this week.
8. Houston: Tom Herman will be the focus of the coaching carousel this coming offseason, but in the meantime, he is looking to make the Cougars the first Group of Five CFP participant.
9. Washington: The Huskies got their first real test of the season last Friday against Stanford. They passed with flying colors, primarily Cardinal.
10. Wisconsin: The Badgers have beaten LSU, won at Michigan State and gave Michigan a good fight.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...ll-playoff-rankings-ohio-state-would-be-no-1/
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have laid waste to their first four opponents, including a dominant performance at Oklahoma.
2. Alabama: The difference between Alabama and Ohio State to this point is that Ole Miss put a scare into the Tide.
3. Clemson: The Tigers have played the best schedule of the top three and have the best win, which came over Louisville on Saturday. Clemson hasn't really put a complete game together yet though.
4. Louisville: Lamar Jackson is still the top contender for the Heisman Trophy despite the loss at Clemson because the Cardinals are piling up points like nobody else.
5. Michigan: The Wolverines haven't left the friendly confines of the Big House yet, but they did pick up a big win over Wisconsin last week.
6. Texas A&M: Kevin Sumlin's seat has cooled off considerably after a 5-0 start that includes wins over UCLA and Arkansas.
7. Tennessee: The Vols have already knocked off Florida and Georgia, their top two competitors in the SEC East. Now, they will test themselves against the West, beginning with a game at Texas A&M this week.
8. Houston: Tom Herman will be the focus of the coaching carousel this coming offseason, but in the meantime, he is looking to make the Cougars the first Group of Five CFP participant.
9. Washington: The Huskies got their first real test of the season last Friday against Stanford. They passed with flying colors, primarily Cardinal.
10. Wisconsin: The Badgers have beaten LSU, won at Michigan State and gave Michigan a good fight.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...ll-playoff-rankings-ohio-state-would-be-no-1/
I still say UL gets in wins it all! No one will be able to contain Lamar by that time he is going to be so great by end of year. Only thing that will stop UL is his injury or key Defensive players get injured as well. UL must stay healthy.
OSU
UL
BAMA
CLEM
OSU
UL
BAMA
CLEM
I am not sold on BAMAS offense i think Hurts going to be great but his inexperience right now is what will get them somewhere on Rd in SEC. That being said BAMA'S D is still best in nation IMO.
This whole Louisville in the playoffs just makes me laugh. Not at the team but at so many posters. Like it or not, Louisville is a legitimate threat this year. A success we have never achieved and in reality only hope to attain in some distant future.
Go back and read the board discussion of Louisville fans talking playoffs. Most of us just scoffed at the thought because realistically, it was implausible. We laughed at the ridiculous thought.
But seeing them play, if you are a football fan, you have to give them credit for being a very good football team. The poster that had Louisville 8th is thinking with his heart and not his head. Calling Louisville a mid-major is absurd. They are the rival so I get it. But at least be honest. They have a pretty comparative history, better recent history to us and we never consider ourselves mid-major.
A lot would have to happen for them to make the playoffs. Michigan would have to lose to someone other than the Ohio State, Louisville would have to run the table, Washington would have to lose a regular season game, Bama would have to lose 2 games while TAMU and Tennessee lost a game. Houston would need to beat everyone but them. Not all of this would have to happen, but some would.
Go back and read the board discussion of Louisville fans talking playoffs. Most of us just scoffed at the thought because realistically, it was implausible. We laughed at the ridiculous thought.
But seeing them play, if you are a football fan, you have to give them credit for being a very good football team. The poster that had Louisville 8th is thinking with his heart and not his head. Calling Louisville a mid-major is absurd. They are the rival so I get it. But at least be honest. They have a pretty comparative history, better recent history to us and we never consider ourselves mid-major.
A lot would have to happen for them to make the playoffs. Michigan would have to lose to someone other than the Ohio State, Louisville would have to run the table, Washington would have to lose a regular season game, Bama would have to lose 2 games while TAMU and Tennessee lost a game. Houston would need to beat everyone but them. Not all of this would have to happen, but some would.