I gave my theory on UO last week. I think Lanning has a 2-part strategy:
- Years 1 &2 are all about recruiting. Trick/lie/coerce/threaten/bribe top recruits onto campus however you can
- Years 3 and beyond, turn more into development
I don't think Tosh/Martin stick around more than 2 yrs. They have no intrinsic loyalty to UO and I think their contributions have diminishing returns as their liabilities begin to outweigh their assets. You don't pay Tosh to be a top coach, you pay him to recruit and hype your school.
Will it work? Hard to know. What are the CA kids hungry for? Does the Nike and "get out of town" angle have more pull than SC? Did the Nike thing cap out when SC just wasn't a viable option? Obviously Keyvon Thibs still bought their hype.
Other than Tosh and Klemm, the rest of their coaching staff seems a bit pedestrian to me. Can they develop the kids they trick onto campus enough to have sustaining program success? That's the $1M question. Does Lanning = GA Defense? I don't think so, but who knows. I don't think the pieces are there for UO to be the Dawgs of the West.
As for Tosh, what a shame! What could have been had he kept his nose clean and been patient. His roots are at Cal and he killed it there. He could sell Cal because he was Cal. Had he been patient, paid his dues, I could see him having success as Cal's HC. The fact Tosh has instead gone full mercenary instead chasing the $ and talking trash, is just sad. He'll get the $3M from UO or whatever they're paying him, but he will not have his peer's respect and will not go down as a solid coach. Once the $ dries up, he'll be left looking at his meme.