Not mad at the take, but I can't necessarily agree with "The biggest factor are the OL's and schedule. Playing FCS opponents at home is alot easier than playing Pitt on the road." I'd need some evidence or something. I don't really care much about QBR. If I do rate or rank guys, I try to do it based on tape, taking many of the factors yo referenced.
Let me share this:
UCLA 5-0 right?
They have 8 home games on their schedule and 4 away games, played 4 of 5 at home to start the season. That's an advantage. I've seen post after post of people clowning them. "Are they ever going to leave home". They finally do but against a 0-5 Colorado.Then they took on Washington at home again and now Utah at home.
Here are the rankings of their opponents in total defense and records. I use mostly total defense to handicap football games. It's been helpful. I've picked some upsets. Florida over Utah. Tennessee over Pitt ect. (I'm taking Kentucky to beat UGA at home they are a top 20 defense and at home. The last time they locked horns at home it was a close game at the half). They have the defense to win a low scoring slugfest. I'll get back to my point.
Bowling Green 2-3 #127 of 131
Colorado 0-5 ranked 129 of 131
Alabama State 3-2 (SWAC) team couldn't even find stats on them.
South Alabama 4-1 #27 of 131
Washington 4-1 #57 or 131 in total defense.
Combined record of opponents 13-12 with two of the 5 teams ranked amongst the worst (bottom 5 in the nation) in defense
Now let's look at Auburn's brutal schedule.
They started off with 2 fairly easy games. Although statistically you can say that SJS defense is better than anything UCLA has faced so far.
4-1 Mecer Bears (FCS) team
3-1 San Jose State #20 of 131 teams in total defense.
Then:
5-0 Penn State #18 of 131
2-3 Mizzou #65 of 131
4-1 LSU #16 of 131
Combined record of opponents so far 28-6.
Now look at this brutal schedule coming up.
@ 5-0 Georgia # 4 of 131
@ 5-0 Ol Miss # 7 of 131
vs 3-2 Arkansas #100 of 131
@ 4-1 Miss State #45 of 131
Vs 3-2 Texas A&M #24 of 131
Combined record of future Opponents 20-5. (My guess is Bryan Harsin does not finish this brutal 5 game stretch)
So right now:
Freshman Ashford stats look like this
709 3 Tds 3 Ints
5th year Sr. Dorian Thompson Robinson
1,211 11 TD's 1 Int.
But Auburn has clearly played better competition. You have to account for that.
So when you say watch film. I will ask. Yes but it's important to know who that film is against are you playing some stiffs or legit SEC contenders?
Most QB's look better against Boston College then they do against Georgia. So the schedule does matter. Look what happened to Bo Nix when he went down to Athens. Throwing against 2 two NFL DB's like Cincinnati's Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant is alot harder than throwing against the current WVU secondary one on the worst in college football.
You make valid points too. We just disagree about how important the opponent is and I tend to over value home and away. So much so that there are games I wouldn't touch away but would bet it at home. I'd much rather play Utah at home then at Ricce Echols Stadium and would prefer to stay away from LSU in Death Valley.
OL no brainer give any QB time to set his feet and throw and he will preform better. Graham Harrell said that. One of the strategies teams use is try and disrupt the passer by sending extra guys and sit in zone and take advantage of bad passes. Cincinnati is known for this. Id rather have a average Qb with a great OL than a great QB behind a poor one.
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