Need to channel our inner UCLA: 10 point dogs to LSU

[Sleepyhead]

I appreciate your positive spin. It's a rarity in this forum and, as someone who has watched Gamecock football for 45 years, is only found in the recesses of my brain. Occasionally those positive thoughts bubble through the encrusted layers deposited and petrified by years of agony and incompetence.

I’ve only had to endure 23 years. I genuinely believe a decent season is still on the table though. I’m taking the long view right now. I still like the culture, recruiting, and trajectory of the program. A disappointing season doesn’t necessarily dismantle everything.

 

[18IsTheMan]

, I assure you neither side gives a crap about last year’s game and will spend zero time considering it in a game plan or preparation.

If you ever played the game or had a dad who was a coach, you'd know that Sellers absolutely cares about last year's game and believes we would have won if he hadn't been injured. I guaran-darn-tee he wants to prove it in this game.

It's something only the son of a coach would understand.

 

[will110]

Say the Gamecocks beat LSU on Saturday night, how do you feel then sitting at 4-2 (2-2) and bringing OU to Columbia without Mateer?

Apparently there's a chance Mateer plays this week against Texas. Seems unlikely they don't have him against USC.

 

[will110]

I’ve only had to endure 23 years. I genuinely believe a decent season is still on the table though. I’m taking the long view right now. I still like the culture, recruiting, and trajectory of the program. A disappointing season doesn’t necessarily dismantle everything.

I can agree with that, especially in this SEC. Just look at the next 5 games, all against teams currently ranked in the top 11 of the country. That's a ridiculous murderer's row.

The important thing is to not allow a disappointing season to turn into a disastrous season. That might be easier said than done, though.

 

[18IsTheMan]

The important thing is to not allow a disappointing season to turn into a disastrous season. That might be easier said than done, though.

Yeah, this is key. Where we stand right now, the season can go one of those two ways: disappointing or disastrous.

 

[will110]

Yeah, this is key. Where we stand right now, the season can go one of those two ways: disappointing or disastrous.

I guess there's still a chance of having a special season, but it would take some crazy improvements during the bye week that I've got to see to believe. The opportunity is there to really build the resume.

Realistically I think best case scenario at this point is 7 wins. Coastal, Clemson, and two SEC upsets. 5 or 6 wins seems most likely, though 4 is definitely not off the table.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I guess there's still a chance of having a special season, but it would take some crazy improvements during the bye week that I've got to see to believe. The opportunity is there to really build the resume.

Realistically I think best case scenario at this point is 7 wins. Coastal, Clemson, and two SEC upsets. 5 or 6 wins seems most likely, though 4 is definitely not off the table.

I would say our best odds right now are 5-7, which would be massively disappointing. Though I would give 4-8 only slightly worse odds. I can envision a scenario where we lose all remaining games except Coastal.

To have anything resembling a successful season would require going 6-1 the rest of the way.

Anything more than 4-8 will require upsets. I'm going on the hunch that Clemson will rip off a bunch of wins in a row due to their remaining schedule and come into our game with 8 wins, momentum and will be favored. Could be wrong on how this plays out, but they really don't have any challenges on their schedule aside from FSU and they look to be fading.

 

[will110]

I would say our best odds right now are 5-7, which would be massively disappointing. Though I would give 4-8 only slightly worse odds. I can envision a scenario where we lose all remaining games except Coastal.

To have anything resembling a successful season would require going 6-1 the rest of the way.

Anything more than 4-8 will require upsets. I'm going on the hunch that Clemson will rip off a bunch of wins in a row due to their remaining schedule and come into our game with 8 wins, momentum and will be favored. Could be wrong on how this plays out, but they really don't have any challenges on their schedule aside from FSU and they look to be fading.

Unfortunately the scenario where we lose all games but Coastal doesn't seem unlikely at all.

 

[Lurker123]

Unfortunately the scenario where we lose all games but Coastal doesn't seem unlikely at all.

Clemson has looked very beatable, and its hard to give them too much credit for UNC.

With coastal, that could be 5 wins, and we only need one upset to get at least to a bowl.

And yes, I'm bow crossing all my fingers.

 

[Cobie]

To have anything resembling a successful season would require going 6-1 the rest of the way.

What?

Thus far, we've had one unexpected loss to a very good Vandy team and we lost Sellers when the game was tight.

Four of our next five games are against Top 10 opponents.

We see you Botman.

 

[USCRPH1]

UCLA shows anything is possible

If we score FIRST, we can very well win this game but we can't come out and get down 10-0, 14-0 and think it's gonna happen.

 

[Lurker123]

We may really need a defensive or ST score, or more than one.

 

[18IsTheMan]

If we score FIRST, we can very well win this game but we can't come out and get down 10-0, 14-0 and think it's gonna happen.

Definitely don't think we want to be playing from behind. Of course, last year, we took a 17-0 lead and blew that.

Ideal scenario would be to force an LSU punt on their first possession and get a TD on our first possession. Won't take the crowd of out it, but it'll settle them down a bit.

 

[18IsTheMan]

We may really need a defensive or ST score, or more than one.

based on this year, you could say it's absolutely essential.

All 3 of our wins featured ST and/or defensive scores. The 2 losses had no ST or defensive scores.

 

[SouthernBelly]

If we score FIRST, we can very well win this game but we can't come out and get down 10-0, 14-0 and think it's gonna happen.

Yeah college football wild like that. I can see 3-4 more wins (only expecting a couple more though). They should beat Coastal and Clemson looks like a toss up rn. The rest would appear to be losses but figuring in an upset seems about right. And maybe too, one of these remaining teams really isn’t what their rank says they are (LSU has been terrible offensively). Just hoping we don’t have to figure in being upset by Coastal because that isn’t off the table either.

EDIT: replied to the wrong message. Intended to reply to 18istheman’s statement on UCLA. Not to a reply to his comment.

 

[Piscis]

I think this game is very winnable. LSU's offense is putrid and Sellers can hit the big play a couple of times a game. If the game is close and low scoring late, it only takes one big play to jump out to a lead and it will be hard for LSU to come back with their offense.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I think this game is very winnable. LSU's offense is putrid and Sellers can hit the big play a couple of times a game. If the game is close and low scoring late, it only takes one big play to jump out to a lead and it will be hard for LSU to come back with their offense.

LSU's offense hasn't much better than ours against a weaker schedule. Run game is very slightly better (105 ypg to 100 ypg). Our passing game is very slightly better (229 to 225 ypg). Both teams have scored 16 TDs so far, though a fair chunk of ours has been ST and D...not sure how LSU's break down. We have scored 21.5 ppg. They have scored 19.8 ppg.

This SHOULDN'T be a blow out.

LSU is 11th in run defense, 69th in pass D. We are 21st in pass defense, 81st in run D. We should be able to move the ball in the air on them, but I would not expect much to happen on the ground.

Their biggest on-field advantage is rushing D. Our biggest on-field advantage is passing D. Offensively, it's a wash between the two.

By far the biggest X factor is it being a night game in Baton Rouge. We've had 2 weeks to prepare, and I know the standard line is that there's no way to prepare for it, but we should be able to come up with something. If they score early and go up 10-0 or 14-0, I can see the crowd getting into it and things falling apart for us leading to a blowout that shouldn't happen.

One major disadvantage is that with the lack of a run game, it makes it darn near impossible to have sustained drives.

 

[Cobie]

LSU's offense hasn't much better than ours against a weaker schedule. Run game is very slightly better (105 ypg to 100 ypg). Our passing game is very slightly better (229 to 225 ypg). Both teams have scored 16 TDs so far, though a fair chunk of ours has been ST and D...not sure how LSU's break down. We have scored 21.5 ppg. They have scored 19.8 ppg.

This SHOULDN'T be a blow out.

LSU is 11th in run defense, 69th in pass D. We are 21st in pass defense, 81st in run D. We should be able to move the ball in the air on them, but I would not expect much to happen on the ground.

Their biggest on-field advantage is rushing D. Our biggest on-field advantage is passing D. Offensively, it's a wash between the two.

By far the biggest X factor is it being a night game in Baton Rouge. We've had 2 weeks to prepare, and I know the standard line is that there's no way to prepare for it, but we should be able to come up with something. If they score early and go up 10-0 or 14-0, I can see the crowd getting into it and things falling apart for us leading to a blowout that shouldn't happen.

One major disadvantage is that with the lack of a run game, it makes it darn near impossible to have sustained drives.

This BOT is already stacking the deck for his meltdown drama next week in case the game gets out of hand.

He's really upset the UK game derailed his efforts to call for everyone to be fired down to the AD secretary.

He also believes all of those stats he's citing above are sketched in stone even though we're not even halfway through the season....LSU has played a total of 2 SEC games so far.

We've won 2 out of 20 games against LSU in history - in 1930 and 1994. Both were 1pt wins.

Doesn't matter to him though. He needs his pound of flesh from the team. They owe him dearly.

 

[Lurker123]

LSU's offense hasn't much better than ours against a weaker schedule. Run game is very slightly better (105 ypg to 100 ypg). Our passing game is very slightly better (229 to 225 ypg). Both teams have scored 16 TDs so far, though a fair chunk of ours has been ST and D...not sure how LSU's break down. We have scored 21.5 ppg. They have scored 19.8 ppg.

This SHOULDN'T be a blow out.

LSU is 11th in run defense, 69th in pass D. We are 21st in pass defense, 81st in run D. We should be able to move the ball in the air on them, but I would not expect much to happen on the ground.

Their biggest on-field advantage is rushing D. Our biggest on-field advantage is passing D. Offensively, it's a wash between the two.

By far the biggest X factor is it being a night game in Baton Rouge. We've had 2 weeks to prepare, and I know the standard line is that there's no way to prepare for it, but we should be able to come up with something. If they score early and go up 10-0 or 14-0, I can see the crowd getting into it and things falling apart for us leading to a blowout that shouldn't happen.

One major disadvantage is that with the lack of a run game, it makes it darn near impossible to have sustained drives.

Good summation. This numbers say it should be a Good, close game.

Im keeping my fingers crossed for a ST or defensive TD. I think we'll need that.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Good summation. This numbers say it should be asked Good, close game.

Im keeping my fingers crossed for a ST or defensive TD. I think we'll need that.

Our outcomes this year would suggest a ST and/or D scores are essential since we have not won a game this year without one.

 

[Piscis]

Good summation. This numbers say it should be a Good, close game.

Im keeping my fingers crossed for a ST or defensive TD. I think we'll need that.

I know the spread is for betting purposes but I don't see a 9.5 pt loss. I see a 7 point loss or win maximum. I don't think either team is really much better than the other when you look at them objectively.

LSU has not looked great and I think they are prime to be upset.

 

[Lurker123]

I know the spread is for betting purposes but I don't see a 9.5 pt loss. I see a 7 point loss or win maximum. I don't think either team is really much better than the other when you look at them objectively.

LSU has not looked great and I think they are prime to be upset.

I didn't realize it was 9.5. Are they really putting that much weight in the mythical "night game at LSU" factor?

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

I didn't realize it was 9.5. Are they really putting that much weight in the mythical "night game at LSU" factor?

LSU will be up by 21 before we know what hit us.

 

[Piscis]

I didn't realize it was 9.5. Are they really putting that much weight in the mythical "night game at LSU" factor?

I think that whole mystique is greatly overblown. I remember Holtz saying one time something along the lines of "I've always found one of the toughest things about playing LSU in Baton Rouge at night was the fact you had to play LSU". LSU has the 4th best home record in the SEC over the last 10 seasons at 53-12, OK is third at 53-8, Alabama has the best in the SEC at 65-3, UGA is second at 56-6 so playing in Norman, Tuscaloosa or Athens is tougher than playing at LSU.

 

[Cobie]

LSU will be up by 21 before we know what hit us.

Jacque is a tireless Mall Santa during the Holiday Season.

 

[Lurker123]

LSU will be up by 21 before we know what hit us.

I dont know. Our offense seems to be effective for a series or two before tapering off. I think it'll be close ish still at half.