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OT: Better stock up on bread, milk and eggs...(and big rainstorm w/some snow well NW tonight, 12/10)

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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,378
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RU848789 said:
After a gorgeous day tomorrow, we have a big storm coming Sunday afternoon into early Monday. 2-3" of rain for most (with areas along the shore and east of NYC maybe getting more than 3") and we'll see 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph for the region and possibly higher gusts at the coast. T-storms look likely too with temps in the low 60s.

A flood watch (for possible urban/stream flooding from rainfall) is up for the region and coastal flood advisories are likely, as are high wind advisories for the coast. Precip will end Monday as some snow well N/W of 95, with big snows (6-12" or more) likely for the ski resorts in the Adirondacks and interior New England.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
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Not worth a thread yet, but the GFS and NAM are now both showing several inches of snow down through the 95 corridor and even to the coast early Monday, as cold air rushes in behind the front, before the precip shuts off. It's an unlikely scenario, which the NWS doesn't buy into (although they didn't see the 18Z models for their 4 pm forecast) since the rest of the models only show some minor to moderate snowfall for places like the Poconos and Catskills and far NWNJ, but stranger things have happened. Worth watching. Still looking at major snowfalls (6-12" or more for some) for the ski resorts in the Adirondacks and interior New England.

Either way, a big, windy rainstorm with 2-3" of rain for the region is on its way starting tomorrow in the late morning, with the worst of it tomorrow night. Some urban/stream flooding is possible, as is some minor coastal flooding, plus high wind advisories might be needed for gusts up to 50 mph, especially near the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,378
43,475
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The main part of the storm is about to hit this evening through the overnight period, due to a strong front moving through, accompanied by a low pressure system. Rainfall rates will ramp up, along with high winds, with widespread areas of 2-3" of rain falling for the entire storm (possibly only 1-2" NW of the 95 corridor) through Monday morning, and 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph for most and up to 50 mph at the coast where a wind advisory is up. Could be some urban/stream flooding and minor coastal flooding.

Then, cold air rushes in after midnight with a few inches of snow likely for the Poconos, NW NJ and SENY above 1000', from the wee hours through 9-10 am and there could be a dusting to 1" 10-20 miles or more NW of 95 and hopefully mood flakes and a dusting along the 95 corridor after sunrise. Major snowfall (6-12" or more) is expected for the ski resorts in the Adirondacks and interior New England and maybe even the Catskills.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/



 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,378
43,475
113
knightfan7 said:
.83" of rain so far today in Sea Girt. Strong winds haven't arrived yet.
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Should be on your doorstep and it'll likely be pretty gusty down there through 1-2 am. Nothing insane, but 40-50 mph gusts can do a little damage...
 
K

knightfan7

Heisman
Jul 30, 2003
93,317
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RU848789 said:
Should be on your doorstep and it'll likely be pretty gusty down there through 1-2 am. Nothing insane, but 40-50 mph gusts can do a little damage...
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40-50 has been happening more and more down here. Now 60+ can get a wee bit unnerving. 😁

Up to 1.47" and pouring.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,378
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113
knightfan7 said:
40-50 has been happening more and more down here. Now 60+ can get a wee bit unnerving. 😁

Up to 1.47" and pouring.
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The NWS cancelled the wind advisory as of about 10 pm, as they're not seeing the high winds aloft mixing down to the surface as much as expected. There will still be gusts to 30-40 mph, but those are below advisory criteria. Lots of rain still to come, especially along and SE of 95.
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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RU848789 said:
The NWS cancelled the wind advisory as of about 10 pm, as they're not seeing the high winds aloft mixing down to the surface as much as expected. There will still be gusts to 30-40 mph, but those are below advisory criteria. Lots of rain still to come, especially along and SE of 95.
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Yeah, hate to use the word, but major bust. Maybe @knightfan7 is seeing more rain a few miles East of us. Been pretty much a non-event closer to Allaire. Hope the rain fills the reservoirs.
 
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R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,378
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Knight Shift said:
Yeah, hate to use the word, but major bust. Maybe @knightfan7 is seeing more rain a few miles East of us. Been pretty much a non-event closer to Allaire. Hope the rain fills the reservoirs.
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You might want to look at the actual data before declaring a major bust. Forecast was for widespread 2-3" rainfall with some lesser amounts NW of 95 and some higher amounts towards the coast being possible and that's exactly what we got, as probably 75% of NJ got at least 2" (and almost all of the other 25% got at least 1.5" with the lower amounts NW of 95) and plenty of places got 3-4", including most of NJ SE of 95 to the coast (which includes you), so the rainfall forecast was spot on. And the winds, while a bit lower than forecast still had many coastal locations getting gusts over 40 mph, so just a minor bust there.




Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
803 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...MAXMIMUM WIND GUSTS THUS FAR FROM DECEMBER 10-11...



...New Jersey...

...Atlantic County...
Pleasantville Point 50 MPH 1012 PM 12/10 WXFLOW
Atlantic City 40 MPH 1218 AM 12/11 ASOS
Atlantic City 38 MPH 0125 AM 12/11 NJWXNET
2 ESE Pleasantville 36 MPH 0940 PM 12/10 AWS
BRIGANTINE 33 MPH 0948 PM 12/10 CWOP
Forsythe 32 MPH 0925 PM 12/10 RAWS

...Burlington County...
McGuire AFB 41 MPH 1220 AM 12/11 AWOS
Lumberton 35 MPH 0720 PM 12/10 CWOP
Oswego Lake 34 MPH 0610 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Silas Little 34 MPH 0705 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Tabernacle 31 MPH 1235 AM 12/11 CWOP
Mount Holly 31 MPH 1250 AM 12/11 ASOS
Moorestown 30 MPH 1020 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Coyle Field 30 MPH 0110 AM 12/11 RAWS

...Cape May County...
Cape May 48 MPH 1245 AM 12/11 WXFLOW
Wildwood 37 MPH 0757 PM 12/10 AWOS
Cape May 37 MPH 1155 PM 12/10 DAVIS
Woodbine 36 MPH 0915 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Cape May Point 36 MPH 1225 AM 12/11 CWOP
Woodbine 35 MPH 0750 PM 12/10 RAWS
North Wildwood 34 MPH 1245 AM 12/11 DAVIS
Ocean City 33 MPH 0832 PM 12/10 WXFLOW
Eldora 32 MPH 0835 PM 12/10 CWOP
West Cape May 31 MPH 1200 AM 12/11 NJWXNET
Ocean City 31 MPH 0130 AM 12/11 CWOP


...Monmouth County...
Keyport 59 MPH 1249 AM 12/11 CWOP
N.Middletown 37 MPH 0757 PM 12/10 CWOP
Belmar Farmdale 37 MPH 0108 AM 12/11 AWOS
Oceanport 36 MPH 0750 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Sea Girt 35 MPH 0120 AM 12/11 NJWXNET
Monmouth 34 MPH 0710 PM 12/10 WXFLOW
Cream Ridge 32 MPH 1140 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Millstone Township 30 MPH 0715 PM 12/10 CWOP


...Ocean County...
Harvey Cedars 45 MPH 0850 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Beach Haven 41 MPH 1016 PM 12/10 CWOP
Point Pleasant Beach 41 MPH 0108 AM 12/11 CWOP
Berkeley Twp. 39 MPH 0655 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Rutgers 39 MPH 1018 PM 12/10 WXFLOW
Toms River 39 MPH 0100 AM 12/11 AWOS
South Seaside Park 39 MPH 0138 AM 12/11 CWOP
Tuckerton 39 MPH 0200 AM 12/11 WXFLOW
North Beach Haven 38 MPH 1030 PM 12/10 CWOP
Seaside Heights 38 MPH 1235 AM 12/11 NJWXNET
Surf City 38 MPH 0145 AM 12/11 CWOP
Beach Haven West 36 MPH 1035 PM 12/10 DAVIS
Trixies 36 MPH 1249 AM 12/11 WXFLOW
Mantoloking 36 MPH 0126 AM 12/11 WXFLOW
Seaside Heights 34 MPH 1250 AM 12/11 WXFLOW
Long Beach Township 32 MPH 0155 AM 12/11 DAVIS
2 WNW Manchester Twp 31 MPH 0750 PM 12/10 NJWXNET
Beach Haven 31 MPH 1245 AM 12/11 DAVIS
Brick 30 MPH 0645 PM 12/10 CWOP
Jackson 30 MPH 0651 PM 12/10 RAWS
 
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DJ Spanky

DJ Spanky

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
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We had about 1 3/4 inches of rain in the rain gauge this morning from the storm. I know when I was outside grilling last night had some hard rain coming down.
 
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M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
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RU205 said:
It will probably only snow Dec 28th.
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Well, if it does, and if we're playing well and winning at the half, and if they bring out plows to clear the snow just inside the sidelines where the yard markers are, some of you damn well better go out onto the field and stop those plows.

#NEVERFORGET
 
AntiG

AntiG

All-Conference
Jan 27, 2012
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Gusty with some annoying rain on and off, but didn't seem that bad nor was the rain that heavy
 
A

AreYouNUTS

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
120,439
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DJ Spanky said:
We had about 1 3/4 inches of rain in the rain gauge this morning from the storm. I know when I was outside grilling last night had some hard rain coming down.
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I think in a 2-hour period out with clients yesterday, which happened to be between 1-3PM, I got the ENTIRETY of that 1 3/4" of rain ON me. Ugh!!!
 
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