I went out to dinner last night with my cousin who’s a financial analyst and has worked on Wall Street for 30+ years. I asked him some questions about the tariffs and the market. He said the tariff war with China is needed for long term economic health. But he said the tariffs on the other countries were a mistake and should have been handled differently. He wasn’t concerned about the stock market fluctuating and said expect it to be down for the next few months. But it will bounce back over time like it always does. But each person will look at this differently based on where they are in life and how close to retirement they are.
I asked if we were in a recession and he said it depends on how you define recession. There are a few ways to look at it. But we most likely are in a recession.
He said the bond market is the bigger concern with the tariffs. He said bond traders and smarter than stock traders and understand tariffs and the global economy better. Once the treasury yields went up Bessent probably called POTUS to say delay the tariffs for 90 days. He said Bessent understands the market and should be making the decisions. He said we need to make sure other countries still buy treasuries.
