OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Cracks are in the private markets in general and there will be a fallout from them IMO
Well that's why the stocks are down so much.
But the drop may be more then the cracks warrant.
December rate cut probabilities back up to 65-70% now. Some weak manufacturing data and a few Fed voting members saying they support more cuts.
I really don't understand private markets/credits that well. Just keep hearing very bad things are going on in that space.
Looking at my accounts, I seen to be down 4%'ish from my recent highs. Meh. The market needs to go down from time to time to stay healthy and sane.
I keep eyeing TOST, DECK, LULU, and a few other plays. DIS is very interesting for a leap calls play. Some of the spec high flyers are getting into interesting ranges.....maybe SOUN and JOBY?
Im currently in TOST and SOUN. As well as a bunch of other small-mid cap ai ish -interest rate sensitive type stuff that ran for a bit
I sold out of most at one point. But bought back in too early so i have a lot of red currently. Hoping for a Dec rebound.
So im pretty full in terms of names. Thus haven’t been looking for potential new positions. Been adding to some of my stuff here and there.
Last edited:
In my personal account I have my 30 stock custom basket (which now includes SHAK, RDDT, and HOOD which were separate before) and my leap call plays - SLB, SBUX, and NKE. Are you still up around 45-50 positions?
Check out Tom Lee’s new smid cap etf - GRNJ. Very interesting list of holdings. Lots of great ideas to watch.
Adding to positions during dips is always the way to go. I added new money to my custom basket Thursday just before the close.
Im out of Hood, pretty sure i sold above where it is now, so id like to get back in but waiting to see if it settles.
One thing ive been thinking is selling my sgov which pays 4.25% and using that money to sell puts on names i want in on. Try to get a 1% monthly premium.
Might do this with HOOD. Was thinking PLTR but its still so crazy expensive.
Listened this morning.
excellent show. Very nuts and bolts. Pies is bullish.
One interesting thought brought up by Batnick is that this years losers which may be due for tax loss selling through year end could then be due for a rebound to start next year. The likes of CRM, TEAM, and ADBE. DIS though not mentioned could be a tax loss option.
I sold a portion of HOOD so I can fit it into my basket (it was way too large without trimming). I really don't know about PLTR. Maybe under $100 or close to that level?
Yeah, great episode! Watching it now. I really like CRM long-term. I have NOW in my basket and that's essentially the same story. Solid growth, likely an AI-winner, but software has been on the outs with traders for the past 6 months. This will turn soon!
Do you have a level for adding (or buying new)? Also eyeing SOUN to see if it dips below $10.
May be mid $130's. The thing with PLTR is that there is really no competition so the stock will get bought up on any good news.
Same with SOUN. The chance to buy it under $10 has likely passed
Got it, I just need to start buying both. I can add over time if they dip more.
Sounds like a good opportunity to buy to add. ORCL is part of my basket.....long hold!
The chart on ZETA looks good. I bought some today.
I also bought some ALAB.
I also had to sell some stocks to pay some end of the year taxes on capital gains.
Can't judge PLTR by it's metric. Don't make the mistake I made with netflix
I think a ton of people made the same mistake back in the day with AMZN. History repeats quite often!
LABU vs CURE over the last 1-3-6 months.
LABU 14%-98%-171%
CURE 15%-34%-50%
Those 6 month numbers are juiced because that brings us back to just after the liberation day dip. Over the past 12 months LABU is up 33% while CURE is up 7%.
I got into these fairly recently and I'm "only" up 33% and 23% respectively. I actually got into CURE first, thinking it was due for some catchup, but LABU continued to outpeform, and continued to outperform after I got in there as well. On the 1 month CURE has outperformed even if only modestly but maybe it wants to catch up.
These are 3x leveraged, so going too far back on the chart warps the returns. LABU which is now $150 was once $3500.
Looking at the BBH, the Van Eck, non leveraged ETF, it is 10% off it's all time highs set back in 2021. With it's current momentum, I imagine it wants to challenge those highs. If it is able to break through to new ATH's that could really catapult the 3x leveraged etf's, but there is likely going to be a some level of struggle before that happens.
LABU 14%-98%-171%
CURE 15%-34%-50%
Those 6 month numbers are juiced because that brings us back to just after the liberation day dip. Over the past 12 months LABU is up 33% while CURE is up 7%.
I got into these fairly recently and I'm "only" up 33% and 23% respectively. I actually got into CURE first, thinking it was due for some catchup, but LABU continued to outpeform, and continued to outperform after I got in there as well. On the 1 month CURE has outperformed even if only modestly but maybe it wants to catch up.
These are 3x leveraged, so going too far back on the chart warps the returns. LABU which is now $150 was once $3500.
Looking at the BBH, the Van Eck, non leveraged ETF, it is 10% off it's all time highs set back in 2021. With it's current momentum, I imagine it wants to challenge those highs. If it is able to break through to new ATH's that could really catapult the 3x leveraged etf's, but there is likely going to be a some level of struggle before that happens.
Was NFLX or AMZN(to @T2Kplus20) ever 100x sales though?
I remember after SNOW became public and it was trading at some crazy P/S multiple Steve Weiss talked about how when stocks are at those levels it never ends well. And for SNOW it did crash 70ish% and then flat lined for 2 years. It has since started an uptrend but it's still not near those ATH's.
NFLX's current price to sales is 10x. Using a google AI search NFLX's highest price to sales was 14x.
I'm back in CURE as well. It's a 3x ETF that really behaves like a 2x ETF since the HC sector is lower beta than most. I made a great CURE trade in 2024 and up nicely now. We shall see! LABU is definitely a shorter-term trade. It can go south very quickly since it tracks the XBI (which is mostly small-cap and clinical stage biotechs). I would manage LABU via stop losses and update as needed.
Overall, XBI and LABU should continue to go up as the Fed cuts rates. Small cap biotech is HIGHLY dependent on financing and interest rates. I'm holding a few clinical stage biotechs, including MIST (which has an upcoming PDUFA in Dec).
Hope everyone has plenty of GOOGL in their portfolios:
From Mark Benioff/CEO of Salesforce
"Holy s---," he posted on X. "I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video ... everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again."
Benioff has called AI the most important tech in his lifetime.
From Mark Benioff/CEO of Salesforce
"Holy s---," he posted on X. "I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video ... everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again."
Benioff has called AI the most important tech in his lifetime.
AMZN's price to sales at the peak of the tech bubble was less then 20x.
It went on to tank 80ish% after those peaks.
SNOW and PLTR are very different companies. No competition for PLTR like NFLX gives them a huge advantage. SNOW has plenty of competition.
CURE is mostly big pharma and so movements is more incremental. LABU is way more volatile. The one I can't figure out is PILL.I'm back in CURE as well. It's a 3x ETF that really behaves like a 2x ETF since the HC sector is lower beta than most. I made a great CURE trade in 2024 and up nicely now. We shall see! LABU is definitely a shorter-term trade. It can go south very quickly since it tracks the XBI (which is mostly small-cap and clinical stage biotechs). I would manage LABU via stop losses and update as needed.
Overall, XBI and LABU should continue to go up as the Fed cuts rates. Small cap biotech is HIGHLY dependent on financing and interest rates. I'm holding a few clinical stage biotechs, including MIST (which has an upcoming PDUFA in Dec).
I think PILL is pharma and medical device companies (so a sub-set or sub-sector of HC). It seems like the most meh/stoggy part of the sector. LOL! The growth normally comes from the biotech side. Not sure why someone would go PILL over the other options!
RXL is a 2x Proshares ETF of the HC market. This is a good one for a long hold since it tracks the HC sector really well.
RXL is not leveraged enough. LABU is the best then PILL and then CURE
Conceptually, I like CURE better than PILL, but I haven't done a side-by-side chart analysis of the two. Agreed that LABU is the best. When that starts ripping.....look the f out!