OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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One of the problems with the Foxconn plant was the lack of supportive industries and skilled worker in that part of the country. Arizona and Texas may be better-suited to to the high-tech companies as lower-cost alternatives to places like Silicon Valley and Massachusetts.
Just like the INTC factory in Ohio that was delayed from 2025 to 2027 now to 2032.
Banks continue to crush earnings:
yeah TSMC is starting up in Arizona, they just completed the property surveys and documentation there not too long ago. This has tremendous geopolitical impact not only economically but in terms of staving off WW3 because US and Taiwan will continue to have increased ties in terms of national and international security, and each country will be able to co-opt high tech chips for government security for the US without risk of supply-chain fall-out on a future sanction of China (as well as potential trojan horses that the CCP could program into Chinese manufactured chips). Its a huge thing for the 4 barriers of the Pacific (Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines) who rely on the US to defend against CCP aggression. The other key there will be South Korea's June election where they have a CCP plant running as the opposition party.
Not a huge fan of Ezra Kleins politics but I felt David and Chamath still dodged his question. How do we decide if these decisions worked? How many factories opened in rust belt, middle class manufacturing jobs actual reshore? Where is GDP, unemployment, stock market in 3 years?
I just listened to this exact exchange. In Sacks’ defense he was cut off 11 times so he wasnt going to give in to an answer stubbornly at that point.
I thought Chamath was pretty clear in citing measuring improvements in the supply chain of technology, energy, material inputs/rare earths and pharma. Definitely didn’t nail it down to a measurable kpi to your point
Well.. that's what Ezra wanted them to agree to.. to measure based on manufacturing jobs. But the others were too smart to just walk into his trap... and it was a trap argument.
Bottom line for me is this.. did Trump's tactics on tariffs help or hurt the overall deficit picture? Don't pick a specific measurable because then you are only locked into doing things that effect that measurable. If the financial picture improves in every way except a count of actual manufacturing jobs.. then it will have been a success but agreeing to Ezra's test criteria would score it as a failure.
Are you saying we should look if the US deficit increases to judge if these tariffs were a failure? If it does not increase, they were a success?
It’s more reading between the lines than listening to Trump. I don’t like the guy but if you traded off of his daily whims you’d be broke. We still don’t fully know what his rhetoric on tariffs will actually bring in the long term. Probabilities point up to those who are patient though, and it’s more to my points a few pages back that the American economy is crazy strong, literally anyone can ride it upwards if they aren’t out to destroy it.
I was only able to get through about a half hour, so I'm not sure how specific the question became, or how they tried to answer it, but I think they could have answered the overall "what is success?" question noting a broad range of potential impacts. They didn't have to tie themselves to a specific criteria.
The last part is the key, and it cuts both ways, and i think that's what Chamath never touched on. Adding manufacturing jobs at any cost is not necessarily a success.
If those jobs are re-shored, inflation is squashed, and market and unemployment are good, then to me that is a success. If 20k jobs are re-shored but everything is more expensive, unemployment is 10% and market is down 40%, that is clearly not a good tradeoff.
To replace the Polosei trade.
IMO, only essential items and those necessary for national security should be re-shored. We shouldn’t chance inflation and an economic slowdown for items that we Americans are forced to pay more for.
I'm putting my little one through college on GLD futures!
In other news, the consumer is still kicking butt:
Retail sales increased 1.4% in March, greater than expected
Just bought back into NVDA at $105. Think I sold at $110. Not bad.
Will it increase less than what every other president has done lately? As a a nation, we cannot go on spending more than we make.
Ya, turning that dynamic around in a year or two sounds unreasonable, but if GDP can grow faster then the deficit that would be a good first step.
When you spend more on interest payments on debt than you do on defense... (I don't think I need to explain further).
I keep looking for another entry point for more LEAPs but it keeps gapping up.I'm putting my little one through college on GLD futures!
In other news, the consumer is still kicking butt:
Retail sales increased 1.4% in March, greater than expected
Fueled mostly by auto purchases by those in fear of the upcoming tariffs,I'm putting my little one through college on GLD futures!
In other news, the consumer is still kicking butt:
Retail sales increased 1.4% in March, greater than expected
I agree with this. I’ll be more interested to see how the economy is faring through the summer and fall months. People will have made their big purchases this spring to avoid price spikes in al sorts of things.
I took profit on half my contracts (which were getting out of control). I bought way too many this round. My plan is to let the others ride for a while. If there is a nice dip, I can rebuy what I sold. I think gold is heading past $3500 on its way to $4000 by years end, but there is normally a buyable dip after such a breakout.
Fingers crossed!
Yeah Gold has been pumping like crazy! Purchased some physical last week.I took profit on half my contracts (which were getting out of control). I bought way too many this round. My plan is to let the others ride for a while. If there is a nice dip, I can rebuy what I sold. I think gold is heading past $3500 on its way to $4000 by years end, but there is normally a buyable dip after such a breakout.
Fingers crossed!
Did my monthly DCA into VOO today as well.
Another brutal day thanks to ever-changing tariff ideas.
Meh, bond yields continue to normalize. If they were going the wrong direction I’d be more concerned.