Perfect example of last year meaning nothing. This will be a much improved UK team and a southern miss team that probably is not as good as last year
Souther Miss isn't good
- Thread starter supernova0221
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I'm superstitious as hell, threads like these always scare me. Especially before the first game of the season which is a absolute must win
Actually in the past day or two the spread has fallen 1/2 a point (i.e., UK -6.5) at many venues. Down to 6 at several off shores. That point may affect bettors but it hardly changes the outcome percentages. No real problem unless the spread is about 3 or less and then the results are very close to 50/50.
FWIW, Connolly's early numbers have it as a pick 'em but Steel and ESPN have the Cats a 9 and 11 point favorite respectively.
Peace
Of all the week one games the UK game is one of the top 2-3 safest picks. We will beat them by at least 10
You think UK wound have done as well last year at Nebraska? Either way I am picking UK to win. We are better.
You left out: They play in the SEC and have tons more talent.
With what QB?
If Jackson goes down with an injury and Bolin breaks his leg, will UL fans have an excuse for loses?
Not meaning to show any disrespect towards Southern Miss, but as a up and coming Kentucky football program really has to worry about being beat by these guys, we are not as far along at this winning football games and going bowling every season as maybe some of us thought. I do understand you have to respect every school you play and work hard every play you are on the field, but at some point being a SEC school and the recruiting that comes with being one brings, I really don't think expecting to win a game against Southern Miss is asking for too much.
I know we aren't as loaded with as much talent as we would all like, but come on, we have plenty enough to handle these guys and win the game by a touchdown or more. I know we ain't exactly Bama on D, but if Southern Miss can line up against our guys and push them all over the field, we're in even bigger trouble than any of us thought. It won't happen. They have a nice QB, but we know better than anyone it takes more than a talented QB to win football games. At least our QB has the weapons to throw to. If Southern Miss had our wideouts, I might view things differently. We beat this team and the fans worrying about losing to these guys, I hate to read what you have to say once we start playing real talented teams from the SEC. Geez.
I know we aren't as loaded with as much talent as we would all like, but come on, we have plenty enough to handle these guys and win the game by a touchdown or more. I know we ain't exactly Bama on D, but if Southern Miss can line up against our guys and push them all over the field, we're in even bigger trouble than any of us thought. It won't happen. They have a nice QB, but we know better than anyone it takes more than a talented QB to win football games. At least our QB has the weapons to throw to. If Southern Miss had our wideouts, I might view things differently. We beat this team and the fans worrying about losing to these guys, I hate to read what you have to say once we start playing real talented teams from the SEC. Geez.
Those "people that make their living being right" are not predicting outcomes of games. They are predicting what spread is necessary to split the bets between the two teams.
Do you understand the difference?
This is a common misperception amongst non-gamblers.
For one, books can't merely make a "what would Joe Public think" line because if of a ton of smart money comes in one way, then all the average Joes can't make it up the other way. The squares bet smaller compared to sharp syndicate amounts.
Two, if you are trying to make that argument as a bigger, SEC school you have to realize that the square public bettor would be more likely, not less, to bet on SEC UK and thus the line would artificially high of anything, and not low.
I want to win by 35.
Actually I would prefer about a 14 point win, with a lot held back, let out younger players gain badly needed experience. No need to wake up Florida if we don't have to, and it would play havoc with the points I expect to get against Florida.
Yes, the lines were artificially high on UK.
UK's ATS record last year was not the result of opening lines being set to challenge only the smart money. Unless the smart money just quit paying close attention in the second half of the season.
What ARC Dog said. It is a very common misconception among non-gamblers. And, technically, to use your definitions, there is no "difference". They (i.e., sports books) do "predict" the likely outcome of a game by establishing 1 team as the favorite to win the game.
Almost always, one team is better than the other. But in order to attract that desired (but seldom precisely achieved) 50/50 money split they must "quantify" that difference and award points to the lesser team thus creating a theoretical 50/50 event outcome. In doing so they implicitly establish a favorite and an underdog. By the very nature of the process they have implicitly declared the favorite as the better team.
Peace
As posted earlier; USM is a very proud and traditional football school that has historically played a very competitive schedule year in and year out. I believe UK has more talent and should prevail, but anyone who minimizes Southern Miss does not know much about college football. Vegas has the spread at 7 and that is about right for this early in the season.
I don't think they're a great team, but neither are we. I think we'll win, but it's unlikely we win by double digits.
Southern Miss is predicted 40 spots above UK because they're picked to win their mediocre conference.
This team is going to be a complete opposite of last year. Gran, Hinshaw have this offense on the right track. Defense is improving every day.
UK wins by 21+.
This team is going to be a complete opposite of last year. Gran, Hinshaw have this offense on the right track. Defense is improving every day.
UK wins by 21+.
So miss has a credible program and is dangerous in any given year. Terrible decision to schedule them. We lose and the season is over
In the end whether we come out like gangbusters like last year or they come out strong, I am really ready to see how the staff adapts in the second half. Too many times we seem to stop what's working to play it safe and we get stale and out of sync, lets hope Gran keeps us moving forward all game.
Finally, a concise statement defining the situation.
I think anyone can win the game, a couple of bad breaks can do that (well, not UL, they aren't in this one, although some of their fans might think they can win it, some are irrational) but I think the days of the OOC teams we play being able to say "they sposed to be SEC" are over. And that includes Transfer U.
Until the UK Athletic Department woke up we did NOT have SEC talent overall, now while not at the top tier yet talent wise, we DO have SEC talent at MOST of the positions.
The bottom line is even if the hype around Southern Miss is legit, it's year 4 and we need to whip them handily regardless. That, plus Dawson, plus it being the home opener....motivation, effort, and hustle should be ZERO issue for this team. I know the spread is 7 but the defense should be using that as locker room material. If we don't win comfortably I'll start to worry but until then I expect us to take them to the woodshed.
So the season is only one game long? As we have found out the last two seasons it is a twelve game season and not 5-6 one.
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It is interesting that in all their "wisdom" CBS has them ranked 30 spots above us, yet the early line I saw had UK a 6.5 point favorite. I expect this team's offense will be able to put up quite a few points on them, and I hoping for something like a 20 point or more win. I'd really like to see a big win, and have the team head down to Florida with some confidence.
While I think USM will score in this game, I am confident of a UK win for a number of reasons:
1. Harmony among the coaches
2. Unity among the players
3. Stoops 4th year
4. Eddie Gran
5. Darrin Hinshaw
6. Talent differential
7. UK o-line
8. UK rbs
9. UK receivers
10. UK dbs
11. USM d-line is small
12. USM lost a lot from last years defense (which was not good)
13. USM lost a lot on offense (tackles, receivers, premier rb)
14. Game is played @ UK under the lights
I expect at least 2/3 of UK's offensive plays to be running plays, and possibly more. By the 4th qtr., I anticipate the USM defense will be totally gassed, at which point the margin of victory could become significant.
UK-42, USM-21
1. Harmony among the coaches
2. Unity among the players
3. Stoops 4th year
4. Eddie Gran
5. Darrin Hinshaw
6. Talent differential
7. UK o-line
8. UK rbs
9. UK receivers
10. UK dbs
11. USM d-line is small
12. USM lost a lot from last years defense (which was not good)
13. USM lost a lot on offense (tackles, receivers, premier rb)
14. Game is played @ UK under the lights
I expect at least 2/3 of UK's offensive plays to be running plays, and possibly more. By the 4th qtr., I anticipate the USM defense will be totally gassed, at which point the margin of victory could become significant.
UK-42, USM-21
I believe that the reason for scheduling them is that they are a replacement for UAB who had dropped football and this was the only team with an open date on that day.