You're missing the point. Sure, theoretically UK could lose to Southern Miss but if they recover and make a bowl, no one will care. However, if UK would lose to Southern Miss, a recovery is highly doubtful. That's why it's a must win game.
Southern Mississippi & Louisville Game !
- Thread starter BARBQGRILLER
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You're missing the point. Sure, theoretically UK could lose to Southern Miss but if they recover and make a bowl, no one will care. However, if UK would lose to Southern Miss, a recovery is highly doubtful. That's why it's a must win game.
Rich Rodriguez was fired from Michigan despite going 3-9 in his first year and 7-5 his 3rd year.
********! You, a Cardinal fan first and foremost, thinking Stoops future is tied to going to a bowl this year is beyond laughable. And the other so called UK football fans that think that need to get a grip.
We have holes on this team at Dine, Otackle, and out starting QB has started all of 2 games. USM has a solid team that won it's conference with 9 wins and a good returning QB. We aren't playing Austin Peay the first game. And we very likely will be underdogs 7+ games.
We have unprecented talent coming from in the program. But 2017 is the season to set altimatums about getting over the hump.
Well Pike, first I want to thank you for calling out all the other UK fans that just happen to feel the same way I do about the significance of winning 6 games this year. Normally, I have to bear the weight for everyone that feels the same as I do and I am happy to share the burden. [winking]
I have said before that USM is anything but an easy opener. But having to get a new HC (and OC) at the 11th hour likely helps UK's cause, especially in an opener. Nobody is setting any ultimatums but a 6 win season in Year 4 is not too much to expect if a "turnaround" is actually in progress. Furthermore, it is not like Vandy, MSU, SC and Mizzou are expected to be powers this year and 3 of those games are in CWS.
JMO, but 6 wins in '16 sets the table for that big year you expect in '17 but a 5 win season this year is going to suck some of the air out of that 2017 balloon. If the Cats cannot win 6 this year, 2017 will truly be an "ultimatum year" for this staff. And paying $10/month for premium access does not make anyone a better or more knowledgable poster.
Peace
I don't think it makes a different who is playing QB. If KY doesn't win this game Stoops will not be around for 2017. Do you disagree?
I'm not comparing anything. He said name a coach that doubled his win totals and was fired after only 3 years. So I did. I'm sure there are others, but he was the first that came to mind.
Here's the one thing I'll say. Probably Stoops is still here w/o the contract extension but that extension made it impossible to ask the question if he was the right person for the job. 2 years in a row UK had second half season collapses, internal staff issues, internal lockeroom issues, and look unprepared more times than not to play football. That's head coach issues and at least you could put some pressure on him to perform in year 4 w/o that contract extension. It was completely unwarranted and it shows the arrogance and fear Barnhardt had by offering it. There was no doubt in his mind it would ever go bad and you can't do that.
Also was being investigated for NCAA violations that he performed at Michigan. Boeing placed on a three year probation and hit with five major violations was the reason he was fired. That's apples to oranges. I said in the original post for not winning enough.
I know I am in the minority here. 2017 will be Stoops' breakout year at Kentucky. I think Kentucky will go to a bowl in 2017, probably not in 2016. By 2017, Barker will be an experienced junior starter in an established offense, and Kentucky's defense will be built primarily around talented juniors and seniors with experience in Stoops' system. But in 2016, Eddie Gran's offense is new and Kentucky's schedule is much more difficult than most of our fans realize. The Kentucky-Southern Miss game on September 3 is a more difficult opener than Louisiana Lafayette was. Southern Miss will bring a veteran team with bowl experience and 1 of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. I consider the opener a tossup, and that might be optimistic. That game will be won by which defense plays better. Since I have some concerns about our defensive line, I am worried about the opener although it can be won with a great effort. By November 26, Kentucky's younger players will be more experienced. This year, the Louisville game is a road game. To beat Louisville, everything starts with containing Lamar Jackson in the pocket. I don't know if we have the defensive personnel to do that. Everyone should realize this is a transitional season with Gran being a new coordinator, Barker being a new starting quarterback, and massive turnover in our defensive front 7. I see 6 wins as the ceiling and 3 wins as the floor against this schedule. To get to 6 wins, everything will have to fall into place perfectly, key players must stay healthy, and a win over Southern Miss in the opener is imperative. But in 2017, Kentucky will probably bring back returning starters at 19-21 of the 22 positions on the field, with Toth being the only really key departure. As good as Toth is, replacing him with Drake Jackson is not a drop off. Hate to look ahead, but Kentucky will be loaded in 2017 and our schedule should be a little bit better too.
If we really are under dogs 7+ games then Stoops isn't getting it done. Under no circumstance should a 4th year coach be under dogs at home against USC and Vandy. Both have all the same issues you attributed to us only worse. They have newer coaches and more inexperienced players and staffs. If you aren't favored over those teams then that is a shocking indictment of your program. Keep in mind we've beaten USC twice in a row now. We should be solid favorites in that game. Possibly more than a TD even.
Missouri is like wise in bad shape. That game is on the road but again a new staff taking over after losing a bunch of talent that they haven't replaced. If you are an under dog after beating them this past year then it is not likely that your program is getting better.
And I understand USM is a solid team that won it's conference but let's be real their conference isn't the SEC. USM will not be punks but rest assured UK will be favored in that game and should be.
LOL! Some of what you say is selectively biased against Stoops, while some of it is demonstrably false. I would like to see Stoops succeed, because as a Kentucky grad and Lexingtonian I want to see Kentucky football succeed. I don't want Kentucky to start over again. But if that must happen, then so be it. I have never been shy about discussing Stoops' shortcomings. But I suspect you will be eating crow by the 2017 holiday season. In the 1st place, you don't even know what the betting lines will be for any of Kentucky'y 2016 games. Your supposition that a 4th year coach shouldn't be an underdog at home is ridiculous, without any logical or historical basis. Stoops inherited a 2-10 team from Joker Phillips in 2013. Stoops has now recruited 4 classes to Kentucky, but his 2013 class was as much Joker's class as his own. Most of his key players will be sophomores and juniors this year. Stoops has made mistakes, including the Dawson hire as well as his hesitation to go out and get dedicated quarterback and special team coaches. But Stoops has also done a lot of good. He is recruiting elite high school players to Kentucky, but these players need time to develop into SEC players. He has gotten important raises for his coaching staff. He brought in, and then held onto, Vince Marrow. I think the recent hires of Gran and Hinshaw will work out well, but that remains to be seen. If we were talking about a coach at an established program, I might not argue with your criticisms after only 4 years. But Kentucky's program was a beached shipwreck when Stoops got here. Stoops deserves 5 full years at Kentucky before he should be judged. Because of markedly improved recruiting, Kentucky should be loaded in 2017, when Stoops will bring back about 20 returning starters. That will be a big step forward from the 2016 situation with a new quarterback, a rebuilding offensive line, and a new defensive front 7. If Stoops can't get us to a decent bowl game in 2017, then I may support some of your criticisms. But at this point in 2016, your so called shocking indictment is ridiculous.
BD, I won't try to answer for TBCat but I think his points are pretty solid.
We won't get a real read on probable 2016 point spreads until Steele's magazine comes out in June (adjusting his +/- Power Rankings for home field often comes shocking close to actual fall spreads). TB is not saying UK should be a favorite in every home game but should be a favorite at home against SC and Vandy this year. I agree. FWIW, I think the Cats will be pre-season favorites in at least 5 of their 7 home games (3 OOC + Vandy and SC). Furthermore, neither MSU (home) and Mizzou (road) figure to be the teams they have been the past few years. IMO, that is a pretty strong case for at least a 6 win year.
I do not disagree with your earlier post calling 2017 as the likely "break out year" but I just don't think winning 6 this year is too much to expect. In fact, I think winning 6 or more this year sets the table for next year (and I don't consider 6 wins as a "break out" year).
A lot of fans seem to think Stoops took over the worst roster ever. Long time fans know better. In the 3 prior years UK won just 13 under Joker. But Ray, Curci, Claiborne, Mumme and Brooks all took over teams that had won 11 or less games in the 3 years preceding the start of their tenures. Hard to put your finger on exactly "what" Morriss took over other than a big scandal during his 2 year stay. Anyway, should UK fail to win 6 this year, Stoops will be the only coach since John Ray to not have done so within 4 years. And I think that alone might be enough to turn a "break out year" into yet another "show me" year. JMO.
Peace
One of the few things that might derail UK from having a breakout year in 17 is starting over with a completely new coaching staff.
But some of our fans seem to be looking forward to that scenario.
Yes, I do disagree. One loss does not make a season. Southern Miss is no cupcake. However, I do think UK will win this game and I do think they can win 6 or 7 games this year.
Why are we treating Southern Miss. like LSU is our opening game? Yes, their program has turned around the last couple years. They are a worthy opening game, but UK is an up and coming SEC program. UK wins the game and upsets Florida in the swamp to end the streak.
I don't think anyone would disagree that Stoops has made mistakes as a first time HC. I think he underestimated the importance of having solid experienced coorindinators on the staff. And as good as his recruiting has been, he's finding that great DTs and OTs are not only hard to find but hard to keep. He is on his 3rd OC, and his position of QB has been inconsistent since day one. Not sure if everyone was like me but I expected some screw ups from Stoops but it was easy to see that he was left with a YMCA roster early in his HC career.
Lose to Southern Miss, and the wheels will fall off.
Now that the UL game is played late, it's kind of foolish to predict. Look at last year: After 3 games, they were in a hole and we were feeling pretty good. Fast forward after we lose to Vandy and change QBs and we go into the UL game looking at it as must-win but not expecting to win. Jump up 21-0 and then just completely blow it.
This year, I think the big differences favor UL preseason, but obviously, that's subject to change based on injuries and how the season plays out:
-QB is a huge advantage for them. We simply couldn't stop Jackson (and apparently, we didn't bother to practice based on him being QB according to some of the players). Jackson gets hurt, all bets are off.
-Coaching is a huge advantage for them, unless Stoops proves me wrong.
-Their D is alleged to be good, but have never been a believer in Grantham and even most of the UL homers here were agreeing with us last year as the season wore on. Our defense should be better from an overall talent perspective, but I'm completely unimpressed with Stoops / Elliott defenses since they've been here.
-Not too worried about the game being in Louisville, as home field advantage has never been significant for either team in this series.
Prior to the season, I'd predict a narrow win over USM and a loss to UL, but a lot of time to go before then.
Now that the UL game is played late, it's kind of foolish to predict. Look at last year: After 3 games, they were in a hole and we were feeling pretty good. Fast forward after we lose to Vandy and change QBs and we go into the UL game looking at it as must-win but not expecting to win. Jump up 21-0 and then just completely blow it.
This year, I think the big differences favor UL preseason, but obviously, that's subject to change based on injuries and how the season plays out:
-QB is a huge advantage for them. We simply couldn't stop Jackson (and apparently, we didn't bother to practice based on him being QB according to some of the players). Jackson gets hurt, all bets are off.
-Coaching is a huge advantage for them, unless Stoops proves me wrong.
-Their D is alleged to be good, but have never been a believer in Grantham and even most of the UL homers here were agreeing with us last year as the season wore on. Our defense should be better from an overall talent perspective, but I'm completely unimpressed with Stoops / Elliott defenses since they've been here.
-Not too worried about the game being in Louisville, as home field advantage has never been significant for either team in this series.
Prior to the season, I'd predict a narrow win over USM and a loss to UL, but a lot of time to go before then.
Thank you! This UK team is loaded with athletes. Southern miss does not have the skill players to consistently beat Westry and baity. You watch as this game goes on the field will shrink smaller and smaller for usm. UK will win going away.
I think you guys go 6-6 and get a bowl. Like the UGA guy says, you may sneak one out between UGA and UT and get 7-5. Even with 5 wins I think if you let Stoops go you are crazy. The biggest thing UK football needs right now is consistency. And that is not because I am a UL fan. Stoops gets kids that UK has never really been able to get before.
I'll double down on your prediction and say that if Stoops leaves it won't be because he's asked to step aside... No matter what his record might be there's another job out there that is his, if he wants it... If it doesn't work out for him here 1st order of business is finding someone other than Mr. Barnhart to make the pick... Because if CMS don't pan out, it ain't gonna be CMS who pays dearly for the swing and a miss....
I really believe CMS is on the cusp of turning things around... He has been walking the edge of busting loose... A couple players here and there could make a difference... It happens in college ball... And those couple players are being picked off or attempting to be picked off each and every year... They won't ever make the difference at an Alabama they would here... But they're not being here could be exactly what is needed to keep us where we are.
I put a like by your post, but I didn't notice your seventh win possibility and probably shouldn't have, our seventh win is much more likely to come against Transfer U than either UGA or TU.
Agreed. Even if UK goes 5-7, and that would be disappointing, worse case is that it's a sign of stability.
However, UK needs 6 wins this year and I think we get it with 3 non-conference games (we won't beat UL this year), and USC, Vandy, Mizzou in the SEC.
There is a chance that UK takes 1 more (Miss St in my opinion).
Unless Kirby Smart implodes at UGA year #1, I don't see UK beating them. UT wins the east this year and beats us handily in Knoxville. We lose at the Swamp in another close one, and Bama smacks us around a bit. UL beats UK this year. Jackson is just too good.
UK will have the horses on offense to compete with just about anyone. UK's front 7 on D (more so the DL), special teams play (literally non-existent in the Stoops era), and Stoops' in-game adjustments are the biggest question marks going into this fall in my opinion.
In 1977 UK lost the second game of the season against a not very good Baylor team and went on to finish the season 10-1 and ranked ranked sixth in the country and were probably best team in the country that yearAbout as likely of a situation of only winning those 2 games. Laugh at the thread all you want but if UK loses to Southern Miss in week 1, that opens up a can of worms no one wants to be apart of. The little momentum you did gain back after another 5-7 campaign with the offensive hires are gone. QB questions, Defensive questions, head coach questions will blow up all over. Fans are gone, team confidence shot. This isn't basketball where you can shake a bad loss because you have 30 more to go and tournament at the end.
It's why Southern Miss is a must win. To actually think a program like UK would rebound to win the rest of the games outside of UL if they would somehow lose to Southern Miss is a joke.
Completely different time. In today's world, with social media, KSR daily show and an already warm seat in Lexington, a loss to Southern Miss would be highly unlikely for a recovery. Considering the past 2 seasons the teams psyche is already fragile not to mention the fanbase's as well. What you mention above is an exception to the rule.
Not really. As I mentioned later in this thread, Stoops is probably still here, contract extension or no contract extension but you can't even ask the question if he's the right guy for the job or not because of the huge million dollar buyout hanging over the program's head.
The one thing I give Stoops credit on is his recruiting. The one silver lining if Stoops doesn't work out here is we really aren't starting over. The new coach would really be ahead of the game with the talent the roster has. Conceivably, UK would be able to attract a better crop of head coach candidates bc of the roster. Besides, UK is starting over for a 3rd time on offense again with another OC.
Yeah, but that loss probably kept us from being acknowledged as the best team in the country.
Will you be back here posting about how great of a move it was by Mitch if Stoops starts winning big in 17 and that early confidence/support from Mitch built enough loyalty to keep Stoops from jumping when bigger schools come calling? Let's be honest UK is not a destination job right now so if Mitch thinks he's found someone special he has to go the extra mile if he hopes to keep them.
Stoops inherited a minimum 4-5 year rebuild job anyways and he's recruited at unprecedented levels at UK. It's only fair that Stoops gets 5 years and say we miss a bowl this year. The worst that could happen is we sign another historic class by UK standards so the team won't get worse by seeing Stoops through one more year. Stoops is still the 3rd lowest paid SEC coach so it's not like Mitch is throwing away crazy money. I fail to see very many negatives from Mitch's decision but there is a potentially big payoff
Of course not. If it works out, great. But it was a over reaction by Barnhardt. I've said it time and time again, I don't mind the contract extension but the big buyout is what I question. If he wanted to show good faith by extending Stoops, go right ahead. But by putting in that ridiculous buyout it essentially hamstrung UK. There was no one gunning for Stoops outside of a Michigan rumor (a.k.a plant by his agent) so they took advantage of a knee jerk reaction.
Like you said, Stoops is the 3rd lowest paid coach in the country so let's say he does start having some success. If you're UK, you're right back at square one. Money is the driving force that's going to keep him here. His extension had a limited buyout for Stoops on his end if he wanted to go. End of the day, that contract extension benefited no one but Stoops and was a horrible decision from day 1. I'll agree with you, UK is not a destination school and if Stoops is your guy, then you pay him but you make him prove himself at least a little and keep some leverage if you're UK. Barnhardt didn't do that.
Well I disagree Stoops was getting 5 years no matter what so what difference does it make what the buyout is after year 4 if you know he's going to be here for year 5? That buyout was a statement to recruits that we weren't going to make a knee jerk reaction and fire Stoops. It was a statement of stability so that he didn't have to fight negative recruiting from coaches saying they he wouldn't be here much longer. The recruiting Stoops has done has proven himself quite a bit if you ask me. You simply can't keep recruiting at the level he has and not improve greatly from where we were at. We had also gone 2 wins to 5 so he had proven himself some