Examining South Carolina's returning offensive Production

A few weeks into spring football practice, I think it’s a good time to look at what some of the advanced numbers say about South Carolina’s chances this season. Predicting the outcome of an upcoming season is tricky, despite the vast amount of data at our disposal. (For example, South Carolina went well over its preseason win total of 3.5 last season, despite a quarterback carousel, thanks to previously unknown players like walk-on Jaylen Foster).

That being said, two factors stand out as more important when evaluating last season’s data and predicting this season’s outcome: The quantity of returning production and the quality of that returning production.

Thanks to PFF, Bill Connelly’s SP+ and several other databases, we can put a tangible number on both of those numbers and compare it to other teams in football. With all that being said, here’s a look at what the Gamecocks have returning.

The Formula

It’s best to start with Connelly’s formula for returning production then further break that down a bit later.

During the season SP+ uses the five key analytical factors to measure every team’s projected offensive and defensive production on a neutral field relative to average. The higher the offensive number (Projected points scored against average competition) and the lower the defensive number (Projected points allowed against average competition), the better the team, with a small positive or negative adjustment for special teams. The net SP+ number represents “points above average” for each team.

Before the season, the measure includes some other factors, including last season’s data, percentage of returning production and a small adjustment for each of the last three recruiting classes (Being that those are going to represent the talent of most of the new contributors).

Here, we’ll focus on returning production.

Per Connelly, here’s the current weighting for determining the offensive returning production percentage:

Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 37% of the overall number

Returning QB passing yards: 29%

Returning OL snaps: 28%

Returning RB rushing yards: 6%

Broken out by position/player, you’re looking at approximately 29% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends and 6% for the running back and each offensive lineman.

On defense, the calculation is a bit less precise. Rather than each position having a set weighting, the formula weights statistics like returning tackles, sacks and pressures:

Percent of returning tackles: 59%

Returning passes defensed: 28%

Returning tackles for loss: 8%

Returning sacks: 5%

Interestingly enough, this means that turnover in the defensive backfield has a greater negative effect than turnover on the defensive front.

One final note on the formula (Because it greatly affects South Carolina) is that it accounts for the previous season’s production of FBS transfers, but not transfers from lower levels (So South Carolina does not get credit for the 2021 production of Antwane Wells, but does get credit for Spencer Rattler and Devonni Reed).

Returning Production

South Carolina gets dinged for the lack of returning production at the quarterback (29 percent) and running back (6 percent) positions, but really benefits from returning production from the receivers (37 percent) and offensive line (28 percent).

The Gamecocks return nearly 90 percent of last year’s tight end and receiver yards, losing just 217 from senior Nick Muse. The loss is softened even less by the 1-to-1 replacement of Muse for Oklahoma transfer Austin Stogner. The group was not great by any means, but it’s easy to argue that this year’s group is already better than last year’s, with the addition of Wells. Since last year was James Madison’s last in FCS, Wells does not factor into the formula, but it’s easy to make an argument that the third-leading receiver in FCS will improve an offense desperate for a solid slot guy.

One could argue that South Carolina’s offensive line wasn’t great last season, but there’s something to be said about experience. The Gamecocks have that. The offensive line returns essentially 100 percent of its snaps from last season on a line that got steadily better as the year went on.

Quarterback is the position with the weirdest math for formula purposes. Only one of the four unique starters last season returns to the position this year (Dakereon Joyner will likely return to receiver and Zeb Noland is once again a coach) leaving only 40 percent of the passing yardage still on the roster. 

However, South Carolina added its presumed starter through the transfer portal in Rattler. That doesn’t quite bump up the returning production as much as one would think though as he provided only 47 percent of Oklahoma’s passing yards. Here, use the eye test rather than the formula — the Gamecocks upgraded at quarterback, even if the returning production number doesn’t actually improve their SP+ score.

Lastly, the Gamecocks lose a bit in the formula at running back. First, the Gamecocks lose their top two rushers from a year ago, totalling nearly 71 percent of last year’s yardage. However, the addition of Christian Beal-Smith really helps the Gamecocks there as he was a big part of Wake Forest’s offense. Again, I’d prefer to go beyond the formula here and also point out that Juju McDowell really came on strong at the end of last year and will probably have a bigger impact than either his 11 percent yardage share or 3-star recruiting ranking suggest.

The Final Number

Overall, the Gamecocks return 82 percent of their offensive production from last season, 22nd overall in FBS and first in the SEC. The main question marks for me revolve around the quality of that returning production. 

The offensive line and receiving corps were two weaknesses last season, but factor heavily into the high returning production percentage. If those two experienced units can improve, there’s no reason to think South Carolina’s offense will be a bottom-half offense again in 2022.