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JasonStaplesMay 22, 3:46 PM

CFB NIL Roster Estimates

I may have missed someone else posting this at some point, so if I did, my apologies. Nevertheless, some interesting material here estimating roster NIL spending based on available information, backchanneling, etc.: https://www.thenilstandard.com/ A few datapoints of comparison: Texas: $47.6M Miami: $45.4M LSU: $44.4M Oregon: $43.0M Ohio State: $42.6M TAMU: $40.4M Clemson: $28.4M FSU: $27.5M UVA: $27.1M NCSU: $23.2M Duke: $22.8M UNC: $22.5M In the ACC, only GT, Cuse, and Stanford are below UNC's estimated roster spend ($22.4, $22.4, $21.3). Some of the numbers I spot-checked look about right based on what I do know, so I'm guessing the overall numbers are in the ballpark, though surely not exactly right. It's also worth thinking about these things in tiers. Carolina is obviously competing in the same ballpark as its rivals. Then there's a small gap to the FSU/Clemson tier of those spending at the top of the conference. Then there's an enormous gap between that group and those competing for national championships, with Miami as the only ACC team spending in that tier. It's not impossible for a team spending in the $22–23M range to compete for an ACC title, but it's an uphill battle. And it's not impossible for an FSU or Clemson to compete nationally in the $28M range, but it would basically take loads of luck (especially injury luck) and a QB breaking out. All other things being equal, the $15–20M gap to the top is just too much to overcome even for the FSUs and Clemsons of the world. You might be able to get one win over a Miami or Oregon, but going through 3 of those $40M+ rosters is just going to be too much.
119 Replies
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TroyVaughn

May 22, 3:48 PM

Finish this statement: If you want to make money..
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Yates4Heisman

May 22, 3:49 PM

This makes sense, it was reported recently about how little the ACC is paying compared to the Blue Bloods.
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aranapc33

May 22, 3:51 PM

I’m talking about a place where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I’m talking about a little place called Chapel Bill.
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TroyVaughn

May 22, 3:52 PM

Yates4Heisman said:
This makes sense, it was reported recently about how little the ACC is paying compared to the Blue Bloods.
ACC & Big 12 don't deserve to be in the same league as the B1G & SEC. The endgame cannot come soon enough
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SpanishHeel

May 22, 3:58 PM

The ACC is just playing a different sport. We need our own JV playoffs haha
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Yates4Heisman

May 22, 3:59 PM

SpanishHeel said:
The ACC is just playing a different sport. We need our own JV playoffs haha
Somebody has to be the ESPN Friday Night Game. Yeahhhhh! LOL
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unccamel

May 22, 4:03 PM

The ACC might be little leagues compared to the SEC and B10, but Miami ain't letting that stop them from competing on a national level (spending more than tOSU, LSU, Orgeon, and TAMU).
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TroyVaughn

May 22, 4:15 PM

unccamel said:
The ACC might be little leagues compared to the SEC and B10, but Miami ain't letting that stop them from competing on a national level (spending more than tOSU, LSU, Orgeon, and TAMU).
How much did Miami football make last year compared to others? Regardless, a handful of those ACC teams Jason mentioned won't be in the ACC come endgame
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Unc12003

May 22, 4:16 PM

How is this even remotely sustainable?
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Calheel

May 22, 4:26 PM

JasonStaples said:
Texas: $47.6M Miami: $45.4M LSU: $44.4M Oregon: $43.0M Ohio State: $42.6M TAMU: $40.4M
Look at average home attendance + media rights for each of the above six programs. Which one sticks out like a sore thumb? Where/how is Miami getting $45 million for its roster -- because it certainly is not coming from ticket sales or TV deals.
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TroyVaughn

May 22, 4:28 PM

Unc12003 said:
How is this even remotely sustainable?
It's not. That's why we need separate leagues. B1G/SEC, ACC/Big 12, G5
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TroyVaughn

May 22, 4:28 PM

Calheel said:
Look at average home attendance + media rights for each of the above six programs. Which one sticks out like a sore thumb? Where/how is Miami getting $45 million for its roster -- because it certainly is not coming from ticket sales or TV deals.
Playoff
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WoollenRat

May 22, 4:30 PM

I thought I kept hearing that the money is important but it is still about the relationships haha (Seems like a decent analogy might be…you are an average guy trying to date a movie star. Sure, relationships matter, but she is a movie star and you are an average dude)
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LostInOldVenable

May 22, 4:31 PM

Big drop off in roster spend for Franklin at Va Tech
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TopgunHeel

May 22, 4:32 PM

Need reform ASAP. Need out of the ACC yesterday.
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theo2luke

May 22, 4:32 PM

1) Top paid GM nationally, top 10 head coach salary nationally, and NIL budget lower than Cal and Boston College is a wild allocation of resources. 2) We paid up to steal high school commits from Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee but then ran out of money in the portal. It's like we didn't realize we were a low NIL budget school until last December.
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tarheelsrule44

May 22, 4:33 PM

WoollenRat said:
I thought I kept hearing that the money is important but it is still about the relationships haha
Compare the top 20 spenders with where the top 20 kids in the state of NC are committed to, and that'll tell you all you need to know about their relationships.
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Yates4Heisman

May 22, 4:35 PM

Under this Success Incentives model, the Miami Hurricanes retained the full value from their playoff run, which totaled $20 million in CFP prize money plus millions in travel stipends
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CarolinaFlagHunter

May 22, 4:41 PM

Seeing UVa, State, and Duke spend more than Carolina is unbelievable. I know a big deal was made about Carolina investing more into football when Belichick was hired but it clearly wasn’t close to good enough.
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Heel9091DS

May 22, 4:44 PM

Unc12003 said:
How is this even remotely sustainable?
How is it not? It’s not like this is a speculative bubble. It’s luxury spending. Yachts, jets, Malachi Toney’s Until the billionaire class takes a massive financial hit and needs to cut back spending, it’s sustainable
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Yates4Heisman

May 22, 4:49 PM

Heel9091DS said:
How is it not? It’s not like this is a speculative bubble. It’s luxury spending. Yachts, jets, Malachi Toney’s Until the billionaire class takes a massive financial hit and needs to cut back spending, it’s sustainable
A stock market correction is overdue. That may tighten many a belt once it happens.
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JasonStaples

May 22, 4:57 PM

Calheel said:
Look at average home attendance + media rights for each of the above six programs. Which one sticks out like a sore thumb? Where/how is Miami getting $45 million for its roster -- because it certainly is not coming from ticket sales or TV deals.
Two major billionaire boosters plus funneling some money from the UM health system to athletics.
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4d4evr

May 22, 5:01 PM

Heel9091DS said:
How is it not? It’s not like this is a speculative bubble. It’s luxury spending. Yachts, jets, Malachi Toney’s Until the billionaire class takes a massive financial hit and needs to cut back spending, it’s sustainable
more tax breaks for billionaires
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Calheel

May 22, 5:02 PM

TroyVaughn said:
Playoff
They got $32 million, $12 million of which was travel. That leaves them with $20 million. That gets them about 40% of the way to just their player budget. They still need funds for gameday operations, coaches, travel, etc. Plus, you can't assume you will get to the champ game every year, and I suspect Miami has signed multi-year NIL contracts. There is another explanation. Jason's answer of billionaires and hospital money seems more likely.

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