2022 NFL Draft: Taking a look at the QBs this year and in past 10 drafts
As with every NFL draft, quarterbacks will be a big story in the 2022 NFL Draft. But unlike most years, when one of the biggest questions is whether a quarterback is worth the overall No. 1 pick, a big question this year is whether any of the available quarterbacks is worthy of a first-round pick at all.
Because quarterbacks always are overdrafted, there will be at least quarterback selected in the first round. But it seems possible, if not likely, that for the first time since 2013, no quarterback is going to be drafted in the top 10.
We have produced a consensus top five at the position in this draft using the rankings of draft analysts Dane Brugler of The Athletic and Lance Zierlein of NFL.com as well as the ESPN consensus (from among analysts Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Matt Miller and Jason Reid). We also take a look at the position in the past 10 drafts.
This part 1 of an eight-part draft series leading into the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, which is Thursday, April 28 in Las Vegas. (And given some of the horrendous picks that everyone knows will be made, there will be a bunch of GMs two and three years from now wishing that some picks made in Vegas had stayed in Vegas.) The look at running backs will be posted Thursday, with wide receivers and tight ends Friday, offensive tackles Saturday, interior offensive linemen Sunday, defensive linemen Monday, linebackers Tuesday and defensive backs next Wednesday.
As a refresher, here are the underclassmen who are available in the draft. And if you want to look into the recruiting rankings of those taken in the past few drafts, you can have fun with the On3 NFL Draft by Stars database.
Consensus top 5 in this draft
1. Malik Willis, Liberty
The skinny: On3 Consensus four-star prospect, from Roswell (Ga.) High, in the 2017 recruiting class. Willis originally signed with Auburn before transferring to Liberty after the 2018 season. He sat out 2019, then started the past two seasons. Willis would be the first Liberty player selected in the first round since TE Eric Green in 1990 by Pittsburgh. No Liberty quarterback ever has been drafted.
2. Kenny Pickett, Pitt
The skinny: On3 Consensus three-star prospect, from Oakhurst (N.J) Ocean Township, in the 2017 recruiting class. He passed Alex Van Pelt in 2021 to become Pitt’s career leader in passing yards (12,303 to 11,267); he also passed Dan Marino in ’21 to become the school’s career leader in TD passes (81 to 79). Pickett would be the first Pitt player to go in the first round since Aaron Donald in 2014 to the Rams. He would be the first Pitt quarterback in the first round since Marino in 1983 to Miami and would be the fourth Panthers quarterback drafted since Marino (Van Pelt in 1993, Tom Savage in 2014 and Nathan Peterman in 2017).
3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
The skinny: On3 Consensus four-star prospect, from Long Beach (Calif.) Poly, in the 2018 recruiting class. He redshirted that fall, was a part-time starter in 2019, then was the fulltime starter the past two seasons. Corral would be the first Ole Miss player to go in the first round since TE Evan Engram in 2017 to the New York Giants, the first Rebels quarterback to be drafted since Chad Kelly to Denver in the same draft and the first Ole Miss quarterback to go in the first round since Eli Manning to San Diego in 2004. Kelly is the lone Ole Miss quarterback to be drafted since Manning.
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
The skinny: On3 Consensus three-star prospect, from Louisville St. Xavier, in the 2017 recruiting class. Ridder was a four-year starter for the Bearcats and led them to the College Football Playoffs in 2021; he is second in school history in passing yards and first in TD passes. No Bearcat has gone in the first round since DE Bob Bell to Detroit in 1971. The last Cincinnati quarterback drafted was Tony Pike in Carolina in 2010, and the only Cincinnati quarterback drafted in the first round is Greg Cook by the Bengals in 1969.
5. Sam Howell, North Carolina
The skinny: On3 Consensus four-star prospect, from Monroe (N.C.) Sun Valley in the Charlotte suburbs, in the 2019 recruiting class. He was a three-year starter for the Tar Heels and leaves as the school’s career leader in passing yards and TD passes (92, the most of any quarterback in this draft). Howell would be the first Tar Heel to go in the first round since (uh-oh) QB Mitchell Trubisky in 2017 to Chicago; Trubisky also is the only UNC quarterback to go in the first round.
First-round QBs in past 10 drafts
+ Thirty-three quarterbacks have gone in the first round in the past 10 drafts.
+ Six quarterbacks drafted in the first-round were On3 Consensus five-star recruits: Justin Fields (2021 draft, from Ohio State), Trevor Lawrence (2021, Clemson), Josh Rosen (2018, UCLA), Tua Tagovailoa (2020, Alabama), Deshaun Watson (2017, Clemson) and Jameis Winston (2015, Florida State). Fields, Lawrence and Watson attended high school in Georgia.
+ How the other first-round quarterbacks were ranked as recruits: Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Robert Griffin III, Dwayne Haskins, Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones, Andrew Luck, E.J. Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Kyler Murray and Mitchell Trubisky were On3 Consensus four-star prospects; Blake Bortles, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Zach Wilson were three-star prospects; Josh Allen and Paxton Lynch were two-star guys; and Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Carson Wentz and Brandon Weeden were unranked prospects.
+ The conference breakdown of the 33: Eight were from the ACC; six each from the Big 12 and Pac-12; four from the SEC; two each from the AAC, Big Ten, Mountain West and FCS ranks; and one played at an independent.
+ Quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 overall in each of the past four drafts (Lawrence in 2021, preceded by Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield).
+ Quarterbacks have gone first overall seven times in the past 10 drafts. The other three: Jared Goff in 2016, Winston in 2015 and Andrew Luck in 2012.
+ Four times in the past 10 drafts, three quarterbacks have gone in the top 10. It happened in 2021 (each of the top three picks was a quarterback), 2020, 2018 (there were four in the top 10) and 2012.
+ Twice in the past four drafts, in 2021 and 2018, five quarterbacks went in the first round. There were four in the first round in 2020 and 2012; three in 2019, 2017, 2016 and 2014; two in the first round in 2015 (they were the first two overall picks); and just one in 2013 (E.J. Manuel, who went 16th).
+ The 2013 draft is the only time in the past 10 drafts that a quarterback did not go in the top three.
+ The schools with two first-round quarterbacks in the past 10 drafts: Alabama, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Dakota State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas A&M.
Total QBs taken in past 10 drafts
+ There have been 115 quarterbacks selected in the past 10 drafts, with a high of 15 in 2016 and a low of seven in 2015.
+ There have been as many selected in the sixth and seventh rounds combined (33) as have gone in the first round.
+ Eight FCS quarterbacks have gone in the past 10 drafts.
+ There have been more quarterbacks drafted from North Dakota State (three) than Michigan and Texas combined (one each) in that span.
+ There have been more quarterbacks taken from FIU in the past decade (two) than from Florida, Miami, UCF or USF (one each). Florida State also has had two drafted.
+ Eastern Illinois and Northern Illinois each had a quarterback drafted in the past decade; Illinois had zero.
+ Among the other schools with none: Arizona, Purdue, South Carolina, TCU and Utah.
The 5-star quarterbacks
We looked at the five-star quarterbacks in the 2009-19 recruiting classes (those in the ’09 class were eligible for the first time in the 2012 draft and those in the ’19 class are eligible for this draft).
+ There were 24 five-star quarterbacks in those 11 classes: Three in 2009, none in ’10, two each from ’11-’15, three each from ’16-’18 and two in ’19.
+ Let’s work backward because both five-star quarterbacks in 2019 (Spencer Rattler and Bo Nix) will be playing at new schools this season. And one five-star from the 2018 class (J.T. Daniels) and one from the ’17 class (Hunter Johnson) also will be playing this fall.
+ Of the 24, six have been first-round picks: Winston (2012 class), Watson (2014), Rosen (2015), Tagovailoa (2017) and Lawrence and Fields (both 2018). One was drafted as a wide receiver after switching positions in college (Braxton Miller, from the 2011 class). Seven were drafted but not in the first round: Matt Barkley, Garrett Gilbert and Aaron Murray (from the 2009 class), Jeff Driskel (from the 2011 class), Christian Hackenberg (2013), Jacob Eason (2016) and Davis Mills (2017). Six have completed their eligibility and weren’t drafted: Gunner Kiel (2012), Max Browne (2013), Kyle Allen (2014), Blake Barnett (2015) and Shea Patterson and K.J. Costello (both 2016); all six transferred from their original school, as did Driskel, Eason and Gilbert.