2023 Pac-12 win totals: Analyzing schedules projections for USC, Colorado & rest of the league
The 2023 college football season is still several months away, but sports books everywhere have begun to release over/under win total projections for the fall.
After Power Ranking each P5 conference last week, this week we’ll look at the win total numbers released by DraftKings Sportsbook. We debuted the series analyzing projections for all 14 SEC teams. Then we released opinions on the Big Ten projections, the Big 12 and the ACC.
Today, we conclude the series by analyzing the Pac-12. In the final year of the league with USC and UCLA, there are three main contenders for the conference championship, with the Bruins, the Utah Utes and Oregon State Beavers looking to potentially upset the apple cart.
So as we enter the summer, here’s a little Post-Spring Too High? Too Low? Just Right? with the 2023 Pac-12 win-total projections.
USC Trojans: 9.5 — TOO LOW
I’m confused. Truly. After going 11-1 with a worse roster in Year 1 under Lincoln Riley, USC’s 2023 win total looks short by at least a game this fall.
The Trojans bring back the best quarterback in the country in reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, and they’ve at least shored up some depth concerns defensively with the additions of guys like Georgia interior pass rusher Bear Alexander, Arizona corner, corner Christian Roland-Wallace, All-Big 12 linebacker Mason Cobb and Texas A&M pass rusher Anthony Lucas, among others.
USC faces a tough last six weeks of the season, but they still project to be favored in at least 10 games this fall.
Oregon Ducks: 9.5 — JUST RIGHT
The Ducks won nine regular-season games in Dan Lanning’s first season, and although they trade Georgia and BYU for Texas Tech and Hawaii in the non-conference — that game against the Red Raiders is in Lubbock Week 2, which will be a challenging matchup against the darkhorse Big 12 contender.
Importantly, quarterback Bo Nix is back and Lanning has beefed up Oregon’s defense (especially in the secondary) through the portal.
Oregon’s schedule includes tough road games at Washington and Utah, but they get USC and in-state rival Oregon State at home in two of the last three weeks of the season. If they start 5-0 as expected (they’ll still be slight favorites vs. TTU), they have a strong shot to win 10 games.
Washington Huskies: 9 — TOO LOW
The Huskies have a great coach, one of the best college quarterbacks, a solid front seven and a couple of stud receivers. That’s a very good recipe to win a whole lot of games.
Kalen DeBoer wildly exceeded expectations in 2022, and Washington’s number looks short again this fall. The Huskies play at Michigan State in Week 3, but they’ll favored to win that game.
With Oregon coming to Seattle the second week of October (with the Huskies off a bye), Washington’s win total will likely be defined by how it performs in November — at USC, vs. Utah, at Oregon State and vs. Washington State.
UCLA Bruins: 8.5 — TOO HIGH
Chip Kelly isn’t sure who UCLA’s quarterback will be to start the 2023 season, and that’s not ideal with a win total that hangs higher than all but one season with the Bruins under Kelly’s leadership.
UCLA won nine regular-season games last season, but it must replace Dorian Thompson-Robinson and star tailback Zach Charbonnet.
While the Bruins are fortunate to avoid both Oregon and Washington, they do have a tricky non-con game at San Diego State in Week 2 and play all three of their hardest Pac-12 games (at Utah, Oregon State and USC) on the road.
Utah Utes: 8.5 — JUST RIGHT
The Utes haven’t won fewer than nine regular-season games in a full slate since 2017, and while there’s concern about quarterback Cam Rising‘s availability to start the season after tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl, hanging the back-to-back Pac-12 champs with a win-total under nine looks short.
And yet, Utah plays a tougher schedule this fall — the Utes didn’t play Washington last season (and they play at Huskies Stadium in November) and they also have a non-conference road game at Baylor.
Kyle Whittingham is a Top 10 coach in the country, and he could easily lead Utah over this number, but with uncertainty at QB, this preseason projection looks fair.
Oregon State Beavers: 8 — TOO LOW
The Beavers return one of the better defenses in the Pac-12 in 2023, and they’re solid at tailback and OL, too — all staples of the Jonathan Smith era at Oregon State.
Coveted transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is the favorite to beat out incumbent Ben Gulbranson but Smith has yet to name a starter.
Oregon State avoids USC this fall, and its non-conference schedule should net three wins. Outside of the season-finale at Oregon, OSU gets its toughest Pac-12 games in Beavers Stadium (Utah, UCLA, Washington). The floor looks like 8-4, so this number should be at least with a hook.
Washington State Cougars: 6.5 — TOO HIGH
It remains to be seen how WSU’s recent athletics department budgetary freeze will impact the football team this fall, but it certainly doesn’t help a program that’s already swimming upstream compared to its conference counterparts.
The Cougars have a solid squad in 2023, and quarterback Cameron Ward should be better in his second season in the Pac-12. But they did lose a couple of key pieces off last year’s 7-6 team, including top pass rusher Daiyan Henley. Washington State attempted to address some major OL issues (conference-worst 46 sacks allowed) via the portal. Same for linebacker depth.
The issue is Washington State’s schedule is harder in 2023 versus last season. Although there’s no USC, Wisconsin should be better, and the Cougars must play at UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State, Cal and Washington.
Arizona Wildcats: 5.5 — JUST RIGHT
Can Jedd Fisch take the Wildcats bowling this fall? He’ll likely need to pull off an upset along the way, but after making a four-win jump in 2022, it’s certainly possible.
The Wildcats watched USC poach three of their better players this offseason, but Fisch did his own yeoman’s work in the portal, adding as many as five defensive starters. They also bring back one of the league’s most underrated quarterbacks in Jayden de Laura, and their receiving core is among the best in the Pac-12 after USC and Washington.
Arizona should start the season 3-1, so it would need just three wins the rest of the way to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2017.
Arizona State Sun Devils: 5 — TOO HIGH
This is no slight on Kenny Dillingham’s future outlook as a head coach, but the Sun Devils even flirting with a bowl game this fall should be considered a success — not a baseline expectation.
There are too many variables with an Arizona State team that will break in almost 50 new players on the roster this year. They enter this fall with an ongoing QB battle and a defense needing to plug all sorts of holes off of a bad unit in 2022.
The schedule is actually manageable considering ASU gets most all its more winnable games at home this fall, but to expect a floor of a two-win jump off a 3-9 team a year ago is a bit too much.
California Golden Bears: 4.5 — TOO LOW
Cal and Arizona’s State numbers should be flipped. The Sun Devils might have more boom potential, but the Bears have a higher floor in 2023.
Quietly, Justin Wilcox upgraded Cal’s roster and coaching staff in a potential make-or-break season in Berkeley for the seventh-year head coach.
Jake Spavital is now the Bears’ new OC, and the offense should be better this fall with portal additions at quarterback (headlined by TCU transfer Sam Jackson), tailback and tight end.
Cal should be a fringe bowl team this year.
Colorado Buffaloes: 3 — TOO HIGH
There’s no doubt that Deion Sanders’ team was the hardest to handicap in the Pac-12 this season with such a disparate swath of opinions on the program’s potential in Year 1 with so much drastic change.
Sanders has taken a blowtorch to the roster, with some 60+ new faces debuting with the program. Considering the Buffs went 1-11 last season, perhaps so much change was needed. But can a group of mercenaries mesh quickly against the hardest schedule in the Pac-12?
I’m skeptical. Colorado has non-conference games against TCU and Nebraska to open the season. It ends September with games at Oregon and USC.
By Halloween, there’s a real possibility that CU is 2-6 with four more difficult games remaining on the schedule. From what we know right now, a three or four-win season should be viewed as a win for Sanders.
Stanford Cardinal: 3 — JUST RIGHT
First-year head coach Troy Taylor inherits a program in major transition, but the Cardinal managed to still win three games in 2022 — and their slate is a tad easier this fall.
Despite likely fielding the worst offense in the Pac-12 this season, Stanford should win two of its first three games this September (at Hawaii, vs. Sacramento State)
Finding another victory after that is a bit of a shoulder-shrug emoji exercise, but it can’t be ruled out with Cal and Colorado on the schedule.
It’s definitely going to be another down-year in Palo Alto, but a 3-9 repeat season seems very plausible.