2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections following multiple upsets

The conference slate has brought weekly upsets and daily changes to the Bracketology picture. These early results have led to big changes across the board, which keep shaping the field and establishing the resumes of many contenders.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the conference schedule dominates headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, UConn
Last four byes: Seton Hall, Indiana, USC, UCLA
Last four in: Texas A&M, Ohio State, New Mexico, Baylor
First four out: Texas, SDSU, Missouri, Virginia Tech

First Four (Dayton)

16 Grambling (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)
11 Texas A&M vs. 11 Baylor
11 Ohio State vs. 11 New Mexico

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Grambling/Howard
8 SMU vs. 9 Kentucky
San Diego
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Philadelphia
6 Villanova vs. 11 Miami (OH)
3 Illinois vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Auburn
2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology and proved how wide the non-conference gap it built up was after suffering a loss. The Wolverines remain in this spot for now, but are now very close to Arizona across the board.

2-seed Houston

Houston returns to the 2-seed line after seeing multiple teams above it fall. The Cougars have continued to strengthen their resume with a string of wins, also keeping them firmly in the race with the rest of the top Big 12 contenders to compete for a conference title.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Iowa vs. 9 NC State
Tampa
5 Florida vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Portland
6 Utah State (MVC) vs. 11 UCLA
3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)
Oklahoma City
7 Miami vs. 10 Georgia
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed UConn

UConn has established itself with one of the best resumes in college basketball to this point, continuing to shift up the board with each update. The Huskies remain on the 1-seed line behind the strength of their results, with plenty of teams looking to jump them.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones remain very close to the 1-seed line despite a place on the 2-seed line.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 Indiana
Buffalo
5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Greenville
6 Louisville vs. 11 Ohio State/New Mexico
3 Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Portland
7 North Carolina vs. 10 USC
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues to sit on the 1-seed line as one of the last undefeated teams remaining in college basketball. The strong non-conference resume for the Wildcats has set up a Big 12 run, where they look to dethrone Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga has completed the most important part of its resume as a member of the WCC. The Bulldogs have hit the ground running against conference opponents, starting their surge toward the postseason, where they have become a staple to land a high seed.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Vermont/Navy
8 UCF vs. 9 Wisconsin
Tampa
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Clemson vs. 11 Texas A&M/Baylor
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Seton Hall
2 Purdue vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. After their non-conference resume, the Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team and have numbers headed back in the right direction.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue remains on the 2-seed line once again, as much a result of strong performances around it as anything it did. The Boilermakers have a solid resume and continue to trend back toward the 1-seed conversation.