2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections with big shifts on top seed-lines

A marquee matchup between Michigan and Nebraska, the undefeated run of Arizona, and more big-time matchups throughout the midweek slate have led to big changes in the bracketology projections. As the top seeds shuffle for position, they take center stage in the latest update.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the top teams dominate headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, UConn
Last four byes: UCF, Miami, St. Mary’s, New Mexico
Last four in: Ohio State, USC, Texas, Santa Clara
First four out: SDSU, Virginia Tech, VCU, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 Vermont (AEC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 Texas
11 USC vs. 11 Santa Clara

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/Howard
8 Villanova vs. 9 UCLA
Tampa
5 Virginia vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Florida vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Portland
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 Ohio State/Texas
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Philadelphia
7 Clemson vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues its unbeaten run and retains the No. 1 overall seed after taking over this weekend. The Wildcats look to follow up a win against BYU with a game against in-state rival Arizona State on Saturday.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State returns to the 2-seed line of bracketology as the strength of the Big Ten helps boost its resume following an overtime win against Rutgers, which would have spoiled the rise. The Spartans now look to a rivalry matchup against Michigan.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)
8 NC State vs. 9 Wisconsin
Portland
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Tulsa (American)
4 BYU vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Oklahoma City
6 Tennessee vs. 11 USC/Santa Clara
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Philadelphia
7 North Carolina vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Nebraska vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn clings to the final 1-seed spot for now, as Illinois and Nebraska both knock on the door. The Huskies look to follow a midweek win over Providence against Creighton on the weekend, needing strong results given the head-to-head between the chasing teams.

2-seed Nebraska

Nebraska took its first loss of the season against Michigan, but will not see a large fall, given the strong performance and lack of key players in the game. The Cornhuskers have a chance to jump on the rise again this weekend against Illinois and make a run at the 1-seed line.

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 SMU vs. 9 Utah State (MWC)
Tampa
5 Alabama vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Buffalo
6 Auburn vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Purdue vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
Oklahoma City
7 Iowa vs. 10 Miami
2 Houston vs. 15 Montana State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan continues to hold in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed, using a win over Nebraska to narrowly hold Duke off. The Wolverines have another chance coming this weekend to create separation and chase Arizona as they face Michigan State.

2-seed Houston

Houston continues its rise back into the mix of bracketology’s top teams with another win, taking care of TCU in the midweek slate. The Cougars now look toward a game vs. Cincinnati, which they will need to capitalize on the head-to-head matchups around them.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 LIU/Vermont
8 Georgia vs. 9 Indiana
San Diego
5 St. John’s vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Greenville
6 Louisville vs. 11 New Mexico
3 Vanderbilt vs. 14 Hofstra (CAA)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 UCF
2 Illinois vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed Duke

Duke holds steady on the 1-seed line and nearly surpasses Michigan for the second spot in line, with the resumes as close as possible. The Blue Devils come off a win against Louisville with Virginia Tech on deck as they look to climb bracketology.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois continues to soar up the bracketology seed lines as the strong Big Ten results lead to big resume boosts. The Fighting Illini come off a win against Purdue, looking to beat Washington and Nebraska in the coming days to reach the 1-seed line.