2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology updates following early conference tone-setters

As the conference slate hits full stride across college basketball, Bracketology updates again with some important results already setting the tone between rivals. These early results have established the favorites for automatic bids and paved the path toward an NCAA Tournament bid by the finish.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the conference schedule dominates headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, UConn, Duke
Last four byes: UCF, NC State, UCLA, Baylor
Last four in: Ohio State, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Butler
First four out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Grambling (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 Texas A&M
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Butler

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Grambling/Howard
8 St. John’s vs. 9 Kentucky
San Diego
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 UC San Diego (Big West)
Philadelphia
6 Tennessee vs. 11 New Mexico/Butler
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
Oklahoma City
7 SMU vs. 10 UCLA
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology through the non-conference schedule, stringing together dominant results against high-major competition. The Wolverines have already started their conference slate as well, remaining undefeated in the Big Ten.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones remain very close to the 1-seed line despite a place on the 2-seed line.

South (Houston)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Georgia vs. 9 Seton Hall
Buffalo
5 Florida vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 Hofstra (CAA)
Portland
6 St. Mary’s vs. 11 Ohio State/Texas A&M
3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)
Greenville
7 Clemson vs. 10 UCF
2 Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. After their non-conference resume, the Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team and have numbers headed back in the right direction.

2-seed Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt jumps onto the 2-seed line after establishing itself as the favorite to win the SEC, remaining one of the last undefeated teams in the country. The Commodores have slowly built up a resume that can compete for the top seeds.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 Miami vs. 9 USC
Tampa
5 Louisville vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City
6 Villanova vs. 11 Tulsa (American)
3 Houston vs. 14 Arkansas State (SBC)
Portland
7 Iowa vs. 10 St. Louis (A10)
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Montana State (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues to sit on the 1-seed line with one of the best records in college basketball so far. The strong non-conference resume for the Wildcats will set up a Big 12 run, which could see them solidify themselves among the top teams.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga has completed the most important part of its resume as a member of the WCC. The Bulldogs have hit the ground running against conference opponents, starting their surge toward the postseason, where they have become a staple to land a high seed.

East (Washington)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU/Vermont
8 Indiana vs. 9 Auburn
Philadelphia
5 North Carolina vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Tampa
6 Virginia vs. 11 Baylor
3 Alabama vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
St. Louis
7 Utah State (MVC) vs. 10 NC State
2 Purdue vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)

1-seed UConn

UConn has established itself with one of the best resumes in college basketball to this point, continuing to shift up the board with each update. The Huskies remain on the 1-seed line behind the strength of their results, with plenty of teams looking to jump them.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue remains on the 2-seed line once again, as much a result of strong performances around it as anything it did. The Boilermakers have a solid resume and continue to trend back toward the 1-seed conversation.