2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology updates from Saturday's conference championships, more

The NCAA Tournament bubble is closing in on its final form, with plenty bid-stealers still alive entering the finals two days before Selection Sunday reveals the field of 68. As teams make their final case, how far will the bubble shrink, and who will punch their bid.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results. Stay tuned for the latest projections. Last updated at 11:59 pm ET on 3/14.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
Last four byes: Santa Clara, NC State, St. Louis, UCF
Last four in: Miami (OH), Missouri, SMU, Texas
First four out: Auburn, SDSU, Oklahoma, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 IDAHO (Big Sky) vs. 16 HOWARD (MEAC)
16 LEHIGH (Patriot) vs. 16 PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)
11 Miami (OH) vs. 11 Missouri
11 SMU vs. 11 Texas

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 DUKE (ACC) vs. 16 LEHIGH/PRAIRE VIEW
8 Utah State vs. 9 Texas A&M
Portland
5 Kansas vs. 12 AKRON (MAC)
4 ST.JOHN’S (Big East) vs. 13 HAWAII (Big West)
Oklahoma City
6 North Carolina vs. 11 South Florida (American
3 Nebraska vs. 14 KENNESAW STATE (CUSA)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 UCF
2 Purdue vs. 15 UMBC (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Jon Scheyer, Duke — © Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after surviving a close postseason showdown against Clemson. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter reacts to a call during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Mackey Arena. - Marc Lebryk, USA TODAY Sports — Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter reacts to a call during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Mackey Arena. – Marc Lebryk, USA TODAY Sports

Purdue makes a return to the 2-seed line after staging a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament with some key wins against top teams. The Boilermakers will look to close strong and solidify their spot on Selection Sunday.

South (Houston)

Tampa
1 Florida vs. 16 FURMAN (SoCon)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa
Portland
5 Arkansas (SEC) vs. 12 HIGH POINT (Big South)
4 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 13 NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Greenville
6 BYU vs. 11 SMU/Texas
3 Illinois vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Oklahoma City
7 UCLA vs. 10 St. Louis
2 Houston vs. 15 QUEENS (ASUN)

1-seed Florida

Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden gestures with a Gator Chomp against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images — Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden gestures with a Gator Chomp against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida suffered a loss in the semifinal of the SEC Tournament, falling against Vanderbilt. However, they hold onto the final 1-seed spot after seeing UConn and Houston each take losses of their own.

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2-seed Houston

Houston HC Kelvin Sampson — (Troy Taormina | Imagn Images)

Houston was unable to capitalize on Florida and UConn losing on Saturday, falling in the Big 12 title game to Arizona. The Cougars will land on the 2-seed line, potentially in the top spot on Selection Sunday.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Villanova vs. 9 TCU
San Diego
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia
6 Tennessee vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Virginia vs. 14 WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 NC State
2 Iowa State vs. 15 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan Wolverines basketball head coach Dusty May led his team to a win over Oregon. (Photo by Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images) — (Photo by Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images)

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their postseason matchup against Ohio State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

2-seed Iowa State

Mar 11, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones coach TJ Otzelberger watches game play during the first half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

Iowa State jumps up to take Illinois’ spot on the 2-seed line after a Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech. The Cyclones’ loss against Arizona did not do much damage, leaving them in position for Selection Sunday.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 ARIZONA (Big 12) vs. 16 IDAHO/HOWARD
8 Ohio State vs. 9 Georgia
Tampa
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 HOFSTRA (CAA)
Buffalo
6 Louisville vs. 11 Miami (OH)/Missouri
3 Michigan State vs. 14 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
Philadelphia
7 Miami vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 UConn vs. 15 SIENA (MAAC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona HC Tommy Lloyd — (Mark J. Rebilas | Imagn Images)

Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after beating Iowa State in the postseason. The Wildcats got a Big 12 title win, but now await other results.

2-seed UConn

UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the Marquette Golden Eagles at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. — © David Butler II-Imagn Images

UConn advanced to the Big East Championship, but suffered a blowout loss against St. John’s which could not only stop them from rising to the 1-seed line. It could also see the Huskies lose the top spot on the 2-seed line.