2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN shakes up Bracketology after first week of college basketball

It’s never too early to start getting excited for March Madness. After a thrilling opening week of college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his 2025-26 Bracketology.

Lunardi had plenty to consider. There were four Top 25 showdowns in the first week of the season. In all four matchups, the lower-ranked team emerged victorious. If the stunning results are any indication of what’s ahead, college basketball fans are in for a jaw-dropping season.

Of course, before we can examine who Lunardi believes will be riding high into the postseason, we must check out which teams he has on the bubble. Look below to see Lunardi’s complete predictions for March Madness.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Iowa, Mississippi State, Virginia, Saint Mary’s
Last Four In: Clemson, Cincinnati, Utah State, Georgetown
First Four Out: Georgia, Marquette, Nebraska, Oklahoma
Next Four Out: SMU, Miami, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Georgia and Oklahoma suffered losses this past week and are paying the price in Lunardi’s Bracketology. The college basketball expert is now predicting the two SEC teams will be among the first four teams out.

Meanwhile, other squads like Indiana did wonders for their postseason stock this past week. Last week, Lunardi placed the Hoosiers in the “First Four Out” category. But, after handily defeating Marquette on Sunday, Indiana is comfortably included in Lunardi’s March Madness picture. Let’s check out who else Lunardi expects to be dancing in March.

ESPN Bracketology: South (Houston)

1. Houston vs. 16. Portland State
8. Oregon vs. 9. Texas
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Liberty
4. St. John’s vs. 13. McNeese State
6. Kansas vs. 11. Clemson/Georgia
3. Illinois vs. 14. Little Rock
7. Ohio State vs. 10. Saint Mary’s
2. Florida vs. 15. Furman

Joe Lunardi believes Houston could be playing in its own backyard to kick off NCAA Tournament. The Cougars looked excellent last week, holding its opponents to just 52.5 points per game.

Alas, in this scenario, Houston wouldn’t have an easy road to the Final Four. Lunardi’s vision for the South Region would also include reigning national champion Florida, along with powerhouse programs North Carolina and Kansas.

ESPN Bracketology: West (San Jose)

1. UConn vs. 16. Vermont
8. Baylor vs. 9. Indiana
5. UCLA vs. 12. High Point
4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Troy
6. Wisconsin vs. 11. VCU
3. BYU vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Creighton vs. 10. Mississippi State
2. Kentucky vs. 15. St. Thomas

After being eliminated in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season, UConn is back in the hunt for a national title. The Huskies’ roster is deep this season, and could simply outlast their opponents in March.

Of course, UConn shouldn’t expect a cakewalk to glory. Mark Pope and Kentucky spent massive amounts of NIL money this offseason to build a roster they believe can win it all. At the 3-seed, BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa will also be hungry to make a statement.

ESPN Bracketology: East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Navy/Southern
8. Missouri vs. 9. USC
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Akron
4. Iowa State vs. 13. UC Santa Barbara
6. NC State vs. 11. Memphis
3. Alabama vs. 14. Siena
7. Auburn vs. 10. Iowa
2. Michigan vs. 15. Youngstown State

Duke came up short in the Final Four last season, but Lunardi expects the Blue Devils to have another chance at the crown this spring. In fairness, the Blue Devils are loaded, with highly-touted freshman Cameron Boozer leading the charge.

In Lunardi’s current predictions, Duke’s young talent would have to top experienced teams like Alabama and Michigan to reach the Final Four. The Wolverines brought in the No. 4 class in On3’s 2025 Team Transfer Portal Rankings and look strong early this season.

ESPN Bracketology: Midwest (Chicago)

1. Purdue vs. 16. Long Island/Norfolk State
8. San Diego State vs. 9. Ole Miss
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Yale
4. Tennessee vs. 13. Northern Iowa
6. Arkansas vs. 11. Cincinnati/Utah State
3. Louisville vs. 14. Towson
7. Vanderbilt vs. 10. Virginia
2. Arizona vs. 15. Eastern Kentucky

Purdue is battle-tested. The team returned numerous veterans from last season, including All-American point guard Braden Smith. Evidently, Lunardi expects the Boilermakers’ experience to play to their advantage.

Nonetheless, up-and-comers like Arizona will pose a serious threat to Purdue’s national championship hopes. In its season-opener, Arizona defeated Florida. In the win, five-star freshman Koa Peat exploded for 30 points.