After USC's latest defensive meltdown, Lincoln Riley has a decision to make — and it's not as simple as just firing Alex Grinch
The social media wrath was predictable. After USC’s latest meltdown in the Trojans’ 46-45 loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl on Monday, fans and media members alike begged for Lincoln Riley to fire maligned defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
Despite quarterback Caleb Williams’ latest heroics — a Cotton Bowl record 462 passing yards and five touchdowns — USC squandered a 14-point lead with around four minutes to play, as everything around Williams crumbled late.
The Trojans’ defense, an issue throughout the 2022 season, was terrible. Same for their special teams. Riley, perhaps the college football’s best play caller, even screwed up with USC backed up on its own goal line, resulting in a safety that ultimately was the difference in the game.
It all culminated in Tulane capping a historic comeback, as USC became the first 11-win team in FBS history to lose multiple games in which it scored at least 42 points.
The Trojans allowed 9.0 yards per rush and 13.0 yards per pass attempt, and four weeks removed from missing 24 tackles and looking unable to bring down a Crash Test dummy in a blowout loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game, they didn’t look like they’d done much of anything to address the issue in bowl practices.
It’s no surprise that Alex Grinch, who followed Riley to Los Angeles after three seasons together at Oklahoma, might be the natural fall guy for USC’s defensive woes after a disappointing end to an otherwise encouraging 11-3 season. The former Broyles Award winner inherited largely the same cast of characters that went 4-8 in 2021, but Grinch did very little to shore up the unit at all.
The Trojans relied on some ridiculous turnover luck (28 takeaways) this fall, but otherwise were abysmal on defense, finishing the year in the 100s nationally in total defense, yards per play allowed, rushing yards per play and passing defense.
“The big plays and lack of tackling at the level we would expect are very, very alarming and something we’ve got to do a much better job of,” Riley said postgame. “To play great on offense, defense or special teams, everything has got to be clicking. Every single part of your program.”
But as successful as Lincoln Riley has been as a head coach, he’s never had “every single part of his program” clicking. There’s always been a fatal flaw with his teams. Awesome offenses and mediocre-to-downright crappy defenses. I dubbed them the Fast & Finesse Franchise for a reason.
Lincoln Riley’s teams essentially ignore one half of the ball — whether Alex Grinch has been the DC or not.
Riley was asked about Grinch’s job security after Monday’s loss, and while he declined to provide any “big-picture assessments,” he didn’t endorse a coach he’s publicly backed for several seasons now, either.
“We’ll take a deep dive into every part of it here over the next couple of weeks,” Riley said.
“We’ll lay out a plan just like we did when we landed in LA, you know, 13 months ago. You take a deep dive of it. You assess what you got and how can we make it better, and then you go to work. Now we just repeat the process, knowing a little bit more about this roster and a little bit more about where we’re at and what we have coming back and what we’re going to add. We made a pretty good jump in Year 1, and I wouldn’t bet against us to make another big jump next year.”
Well, about that.
Caleb Williams might be the most transcendent player in America next season, but USC won’t make “another big jump” unless Lincoln Riley makes some major changes.
And I’m not talking about just replacing Alex Grinch with some other hot-shot, high-paid DC.
It’s not that simple.
If Lincoln Riley is going to lead USC to future championships — a path that’s about to become much more difficult starting next season when the Trojans play at Notre Dame and Oregon and then join the Big Ten in 2024 — he has to completely alter his philosophical approach to coaching and team-building.
He has to believe defense is important.
He has to prioritize winning over just lighting up the scoreboard because every single season of Riley’s head coaching career has ended the exact same way: With his team’s defense getting exposed on the national stage. In the 2017 Rose Bowl (54 points allowed to Georgia), 2018 Orange Bowl (Alabama scored 45, including three touchdowns in the first quarter), 2019 Peach Bowl (LSU dropped 63 on OU) and then again Monday.
At some point, he’s going to have to look in the mirror and admit whatever his program is doing – in recruiting, in the weight room, in spring practice, during the season — isn’t a script for ultimate success. He has to give a little if he wants to win more.
And it’s not hard to see what’s missing, either.
Riley’s teams can drop 50 on Kansas or 48 points on UCLA, but whether at OU or USC — even with Heisman Trophy quarterbacks and 5-star receivers galore — his teams lack toughness and defensive talent to beat the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, etc.
It’s more than just a personnel problem, but the personnel is part of the issue. Riley can’t continue to just load up on offensive talent in the transfer portal or recruiting (7 of the Trojans’ 10 blue-chippers in the 2023 class are on offense, with zero 4 or 5-star DL signees).
How USC practices — and specifically how it does (or does not) emphasize toughness, tackling and physicality — is a larger problem.
It’s notable that before this weekend’s insane College Football Playoff Semifinals, there was a lot written about Georgia’s “Bloody Tuesday” practices, and TCU and Michigan’s intense, physical “9 on 7” drills.
We’re never heard such anecdotes about a Lincoln Riley team.
“We know what we’re doing,” Riley said. “We know the areas that we have to get better we know the things that we have to address. We’ll spend a lot of time on it, get some clarity, let this one kind of soak in and get past it. And we go back to work. We didn’t come here for a one-year deal…This one hurts, but also it gives complete clarity on what we need to do next.”
With the problems crystal clear, we’re going to find out how true that sentiment is this offseason.