AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after conference championship weekend

Conference championship weekend has come and gone and with it the final chance for teams to move up in the top 25 ahead of the final College Football Playoff rankings. So who took advantage?

The conference title games started out with some Group of Five games that would prove vital to the playoff mix. James Madison and Tulane both came out on top of their respective conferences, upping the intrigue factor considerably in the ACC title game.

There was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Indiana Hoosiers

RESULT: 13-10 win vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Championship Game)
Ohio State’s defense has been elite all year long. So has Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana quarterback was outstanding when yards were tough to come by in the Big Ten Championship Game. He connected when he needed to to give Indiana the lead. The defense did the rest.

The win moves Indiana into pole position atop the College Football Playoff field. A first-round bye is secured after a 13-0 season. And now Indiana will get some extra time to get some key players healthy again before the final postseason push.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)

RESULT: 28-7 win vs. Alabama (SEC Championship Game)
Georgia has been dominant for most of the season, and Saturday was a chance to avenge a home loss to Alabama from earlier this season. The Bulldogs were absolutely locked in from jump, even with a key injury or two impacting the team.

There’s no doubt about it now: Georgia will earn a first-round bye in the playoff. That’s going to give the Bulldogs ample time to rest and recover before it really begins its postseason march in earnest.

3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1)

RESULT: 34-7 win vs. BYU (Big 12 Championship Game)
Texas Tech provided the first power conference title game result of Saturday, thumping BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game to make a strong statement in the top 25. We think that result is enough to send the Red Raiders past the Oregon Ducks in this week’s poll.

Texas Tech’s defense was phenomenal in the win, allowing just 200 total yards in the contest. The unit picked off BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier twice to help set up the offense in favorable situations. Texas Tech looks like a downright dangerous team entering the playoffs.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes

RESULT: 13-10 loss vs. Indiana (Big Ten Championship Game)
Ohio State had its chances, and for a moment it looked like no one would be able to stop Jeremiah Smith. Indiana found a way, and Mendoza delivered when it mattered most to clinch a conference title for the Hoosiers.

For Ohio State, everything is still in front of it and now it has a potential rallying cry. The team is still likely to earn a bye after entering conference championship weekend without a loss. Hard to see the College Football Playoff committee penalizing a close title game loss to another unbeaten team very much at all.

5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)

RESULT: BYE
Oregon lost just one game during the regular season, dropping a game at home to Indiana. Of course, that loss was never likely to hurt much in the College Football Playoff picture, and Oregon had a relaxing weekend at home knowing it was in.

The real question at this point is who the Ducks will play host to in the first round of playoff action. That certainly seems to be the direction things are headed, with Texas Tech’s strong win against BYU allowing it to slip past Oregon in the AP Top 25.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)

RESULT: BYE
Ole Miss’ only loss of the season, like Oregon’s, was to a team participating in the conference championship game. Unlike Oregon, that loss for Ole Miss came on the road in a very hostile environment at Georgia.

The story is similar to the Ducks. The Rebels are likely to host a playoff game in the first round, probably comfortably past the range where that would become more of a question mark. How Ole Miss handles the drama of Lane Kiffin‘s departure remains to be seen.

7. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)

RESULT: BYE
Texas A&M was also at home this weekend, courtesy of a loss to Texas in the regular-season finale. That one came as a little bit of a surprise, even though it was on the road at Texas. Texas A&M had been dominant until then.

At 11-1 on the season, Texas A&M is assuredly safely in the field, high enough up in the top 25. But the question of hosting a first-round game isn’t quite as clear based on where the Aggies ranked last week. We don’t envision that changing too much this week, though.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)

RESULT: BYE
Oklahoma closed out an incredibly difficult schedule in style, taking down three straight ranked opponents including Alabama in the final four weeks of the season. That’s enough to solidify you as having one of the best resumes in the sport this year.

That said, Oklahoma has two losses which means things are a little dicey in terms of potentially hosting a first-round game. Oklahoma figures to be right around the flip line between hosting and traveling on the first weekend.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)

RESULT: BYE
Notre Dame was in an unenviable position heading into championship weekend, knowing its position was favorable but a bit tenuous depending on other results. Fall too close to Miami and the potential for a flip existed based on the head-to-head result.

Well, BYU’s loss removed one of the teams buffering Notre Dame. Alabama’s lopsided loss to Georgia very well could have removed another. Here’s a prediction: Notre Dame and Miami end up next to each other in the AP Top 25 but not in the College Football Playoff rankings.

10. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

RESULT: BYE
Miami was the ACC’s best bet to earn an at-large bid to the playoff, but it needed some help entering the final weekend. It’s unclear it’s going to get that help, but the size of Alabama’s loss to Georgia certainly helped.

In fact, if our AP Top 25 projections are any indication, Miami definitely has a shot. We have the Hurricanes pulling up next to the Fighting Irish in the AP poll. Will the College Football Playoff rankings reflect the same? That’s probably the single biggest question heading into Sunday’s reveal.

Rest of the AP Top 25

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3)
12. Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2)
13. Texas Longhorns (9-3)
14. BYU Cougars (11-2)
15. Utah Utes (10-2)
16. USC Trojans (9-3)
17. Michigan Wolverines (9-3)
18. James Madison Dukes (12-1)
19. Tulane Green Wave (11-2)
20. Virginia Cavaliers (10-3)
21. Arizona Wildcats (9-3)
22. Navy Midshipmen (9-2)
23. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-3)
24. North Texas Mean Green (11-2)
25. Missouri Tigers (8-4)