Arch Manning: Forecasting where the 5-star QB commits

The recruitment of Five Star Plus+ quarterback Arch Manning of New Orleans Isadore Newman has created plenty of national buzz.

Manning is the son of Cooper Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, and the grandson of Archie. Peyton, Eli and Archie were All-SEC stars who reached the NFL. Eli won two Super Bowl MVPs, while Peyton landed in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Manning is the nation’s top overall prospect and top-ranked quarterback with a brand that is already worth more than $2.1 million in the NIL market.

Part of what makes Arch Manning’s recruitment so compelling is that there is a sense of secrecy with it. Hearsay, message board gossip and viral out-of-context Instagram videos are more prevalent than facts about where things stand. That’s why On3 turned to multiple insiders and college contacts to get a breakdown of his top teams and when we might get a decision from Manning.

Regardless, the battle for Arch Manning’s commitment is shaping up to be one of the biggest in recent memory, and the On3 experts give their feedback on where they think they stand in his recruitment. There doesn’t seem to be any consensus on where things stand, indicating just how close things really are with his recruitment.

It should be noted the experts aren’t making official On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine picks on where Arch Manning is going to end up. These are simply observations of where things stand with Manning at this point in the recruiting process.

On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons

“It’s hard to go against Alabama with any recruit. Since Manning has stated to take visits again, I have heard a little more buzz around Alabama and Georgia. Texas has always been up there, and all three schools may have an equal shot at landing him. But with what Alabama does year after year on the field, what they do now offensively, how they put weapons around their quarterback, and how they have developed quarterbacks in recent years puts Alabama in as good of a spot as anyone. In reality, there still might not even be a true favorite in this race with at least three schools giving Manning a lot to think about. But I lean slightly towards Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.” — Chad Simmons

On3 Senior National Recruiting Analyst Gerry Hamilton

“The respect the entire Manning family has for Steve Sarkisian as a play-caller continues to place Texas in a good spot. Also, if Quinn Ewers doesn’t emerge as a can’t miss quarterback out of the spring in Austin, I actually think that will help Texas’ chances even more with Arch Manning. Manning prefers Austin and Athens for the college-life experience, but I’m giving Texas the slight edge as we head into the summer months.” — Gerry Hamilton

On3 National Recruiting Analyst Sam Spiegelman

“There’s a sense that Arch Manning is torn between schools and may have to push a decision later in the calendar than originally thought. Alabama, Georgia and Texas all had the nation’s best quarterback on campus as spring football got underway, and there are compelling connections to link Manning to each of those three contenders. If Arch Manning is, in fact, split, then I’ll give the edge to Nick Saban, who like Kirby Smart and Steve Sarkisian, has taken a hands-on approach in his recruitment. However, there is no indication any team is in pole position for Manning at this stage.” — Sam Spiegelman

DawgsHQ Senior Recruiting Analyst Jake Reuse

“I’ll go with Texas again here, and really, this time I’m going more with my gut than anything inside. I think Georgia and Alabama certainly can land Arch Manning, but I just have a feeling it’ll be the Longhorns. The reality is I don’t think we’ll have a good feel until (or perhaps if) we get a commitment timeline. Until then, I think everyone is going to feel good at each stop.” — Jake Reuse

Inside Texas Publisher Eric Nahlin

“If you believe Arch Manning is looking for a holistic college experience, the confluence of academics, athletics, and campus life, it’s easier to digest the very real possibility he’d select Texas. Further, if you believe a big football part of the equation is being developed and prepared for early and long-term success in the NFL, it’s easier to understand the appeal of Steve Sarkisian. It’s clearly true Sarkisian cannot sell the overall success of Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. But that’s where trust and relationships are key. I believe the Texas head coach and others at UT have done quality work in that department.” — Eric Nahlin

On3 National Recruiting Reporter Joseph Hastings

“I continue to be torn on this recruitment. Obviously, the expectation is that Manning lands at Alabama, Georgia, or Texas, but there isn’t a clear, definitive favorite here. No one knows with absolute certainty where Manning is going. He and his camp have kept this close to the vest. I originally leaned Texas, though I can’t help the feeling that Manning ends up in the SEC once he begins his college career. Georgia continues to feel like a school that can shock people here. Yes, they have had their quarterback issues in the past. But Manning wouldn’t have visited three times had he felt like that would be a determining factor. UGA is coming off a national championship and has some momentum here. So, I’ll side with them for now.” — Joseph Hastings