Arch Manning, Malachi Nelson headline initial 2023 Football Prospect Rankings

CharlesPower

Monday morning saw On3 release the initial football prospect rankings for the 2023 recruiting cycle. This preseason ranking is comprised of the top 100 rising junior prospects. The list will be expanded to the On300 during the fall. The On300 will be updated on a regular schedule over the course of the year.

Our goal is to assess a prospect’s long-term potential in college football, as manifested by the NFL Draft. We’ve rated 10 prospects as initial five-stars and will finish with 32 five-stars every cycle.

We released the 10 initial five-stars two weeks ago, and you can read more in-depth about each here.

As was the case with the 2021 and 2022 cycles, last season was disjointed for many 2023 prospects. Some states played shortened spring schedules or not at all while other states were largely unaffected. As a result, the current sample size varies wildly from prospect to prospect.

This release comes in advance of the 2021 fall season. The next few months should add much more color and context. With that said, we do have significant offseason camp and athletic evaluation points to supplement the varied on-field material.

2021 On300 I 2022 On300 I 2023 Top 100 I 2023 Five-stars I 2022 Quarterback Rankings I 2022 Running back rankings I 2022 Wide Receiver Rankings I 2022 Tight End Rankings I 2022 Interior Offensive Line Rankings I 2022 Offensive Tackle Rankings I 2022 Edge Rankings I 2022 Defensive Line Rankings I 2002 Linebacker Rankings I 2022 Cornerback Rankings I 2022 Athlete Rankings

Arch Manning, Malachi Nelson lead top heavy QB group

With three quarterbacks in the top 10, it’s safe to say the class of signal-callers is strong at the top. Arch Manning of New Orleans Isidore Newman and Oklahoma commit Malachi Nelson hold down the No. 1 and 2 spots. High-upside passer Nicholaus Iamaleava is the third five-star checking in at No. 9.

There’s a way to go with this trio of five-star quarterbacks. We still have two full seasons to go. Nelson and Iamaleava played truncated spring slates in California. With that said, the signs from each are highly encouraging.

Arch Manning has one of the quicker releases we’ve seen from a high school prospect. He’s advanced from a technical and processing standpoint and has considerable natural passing gifts. Read more about why Manning is No. 1 here.

The game already moves slow for Malachi Nelson after just a handful of varsity starts. The Los Alamitos (Calif.) High passer is naturally accurate and has a high-level feel for the game.

Iamaleava could have the highest physical upside of the trio, which is saying something. He’s less refined than Manning and Nelson. That makes sense when you consider the 6-foot-6, 190-pounder doubles as a volleyball standout.

The group is joined in the top 100 by Detroit Martin Luther King passer Dante Moore and Texas A&M pledge Eli Holstein of Zachary (La.). Moore, who checks in at No. 20, is a two-year starter for one of Michigan’s top programs and has proven to be accurate. He also sports an easy, quick release. At No. 62, Holstein’s physical tools are among the best in the cycle at this stage. He has a strong arm and tests as a well above-average athlete.

Tracking this group should prove to be fun over the next few years. New names will emerge, perhaps within the next few weeks. If anything the group already has several legitimate blue-chip prospects.

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Sorting loaded defensive backs

Defensive back is by far the most loaded position at this juncture, in our opinion. A total of nine cornerbacks and safeties reside within the top 33 prospects. Sorting this group proved to be the most challenging endeavor of assembling the top 100.

Cormani McClain leads the way at No. 5. After McClain and Georgia cornerback commit Marcus Washington (No. 14), safety Caleb Downs (No. 15), cornerback Malik Muhammad (No. 17), safety Tony Mitchell (No. 22) and cornerback Jahlil Hurley (No. 23), cornerback AJ Harris (No. 27), safety Derek Williams (No. 30) and safety Joenel Aguero (No. 33) round out the group.

Each brings different strengths and traits to the table.

Marcus Washington is a highly athletic corner prospect with top speed – electronic 4.46-seconds time in the 40-yard dash – and size at 6-feet. Caleb Downs is already one of the best high school football players in the state of Georgia. Malik Muhammad is a long, athletic cover corner who also projects as a playmaker on offense in high school. Tony Mitchell is a jumbo safety with cornerback cover skills at one of the nation’s top programs. Jahlil Hurley may have the best video of any cornerback prospect. He also didn’t give up a catch as a sophomore.

AJ Harris was the top defensive performer at The Opening Finals in July, picking off several passes. Derek Williams is a big safety with intriguing playmaking skills. Joenel Aguero could be the best athlete of the bunch. He’s physically developed and twitchy but did not play a sophomore season before transferring to IMG Academy.

High upside pass rushers

Lebbeus Overton is a proven commodity among the EDGE prospects. He’s been considered to be one of the top prospects in the cycle dating back to this time last year. Overton is followed by Nyckoles Harbor (No. 11), Notre Dame commit Keon Keeley (No. 18) and Damon Wilson (No. 19) within the top 20.

Nyckoles Harbor is certainly among the more interesting prospects we’ve come across in the 2023 cycle.

Simply put, he has the best combination of size and speed I’ve ever seen from a prospect. The Washington (D.C.) Archbishop Carroll product is among the fastest prospects in the country – at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds. Harbor posted a 10.38 second 100-meter time at 15 years old. He plays on both sides of the ball for Archbishop Carroll as a receiver and pass-rusher. There’s a limited sample size available with a shortened spring season. With that said, it’s within reason to think Harbor has the highest upside of any non-quarterback in the cycle.

Keon Keeley is another pass rusher with considerable upside. At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan, Keeley has come into his own over the past year Tampa Berkeley Prep. He’s a fluid, flexible athlete coming off the edge. Keeley has shown marked improvement over the offseason. He should have a big junior campaign.

Damon Wilson immediately jumped out in one of the first national high school games last fall, giving IMG Academy offensive linemen JC Latham (now at Alabama) and Tyler Booker (current Alabama commitment) all they could handle in Week One. Wilson has high-level first-step quickness and registers as a top athlete. He’s backed up his on-field ability in multiple camp settings.

Malik Bryant (No. 25) and Caleb Herring (No. 29) round out the EDGE prospects in the top 30.

Top targets at receiver, tight end

The receiver and tight ends are also a bit further along at this point. Shelton Sampson Jr. (No. 10) is the lone five-star from the group. The Baton Rouge Catholic product has the best combination of size, speed and catch radius of any receiver we’ve scouted in 2023 thus far.

Sampson is followed by Zachariah Branch at No. 13. The Las Vegas Bishop Gorman prospect might remind some of former Alabama star and first-round pick Jaylen Waddle. Branch is extremely explosive and shifty at 5-foot-9. He pairs incredible long speed (10.33 100-meter time) with true receiver route-running and ball skills.

Jalen Brown (No. 21) of Miami Gulliver Prep turned in a strong junior season, averaging 27.8 yards per reception and scoring on eight of his 18 catches. He’s also a top athlete with a 10.66 second 100-meter mark. Johntay Cook II (No. 24) has some of the best ball skills and change of direction within his routes. We expect a big season for him at powerhouse DeSoto High in Texas.

Brandon Inniss is developed and technical with the route-running and change of direction to create separation on top defensive backs. Noah Rogers (No. 36) had an outstanding spring season in leading Rolesville (N.C.) High to a state title appearance. He’s shown the ability to make contested grabs against top competition and also tested as one of the fastest receivers in the nation at 6-foot-1.

Phoenix Pinnacle two-sport star (baseball) Duce Robinson leads the way at tight end. The 6-foot-6, 230-pounder checks in at No. 28 overall. Robinson had a stellar showing at The Opening Finals, flashing a huge catch radius.

Wait-and-see positions

In addition to quarterback, we should see more offensive linemen and linebackers work into the top 100 later on in the cycle.

Offensive line in particular is a highly developmental position. We often don’t see the true upper echelon take shape until after the junior season. Many of the more on-the-radar prospects at the offensive line are simply more advanced at this stage, but may not have the upside of others who are just behind in development.

Charles Jagusah checks in as the top offensive lineman at No. 34. He’s a two-way player along both lines of scrimmage at Rock Island (Ill.) Alleman. Despite having some offers at defensive line, Jagusah has a considerably high upside on offense. He’s a light-footed powerful athlete and is a dominant block finisher as a 10th grader. It shouldn’t be a surprise to learn he’s also a top wrestler.

Penn State commit Alex Birchmeier (No. 39) and offensive tackle Monroe Freeling (No. 41) round out the offensive linemen in the top 50.

Expect a lot of movement within this group during the fall.

The same could be said at linebacker. Just one linebacker currently sits within the top 50 with Raylen Wilson of Tallahassee Lincoln at No. 42. Linebacker is a spot where many athletes who initially work as safeties or on offense tend to end up long term.

When it comes to geographic representation, Florida (18) and Texas (16) leading the way should not come as a surprise. The Sunshine and Lone Star States pump out top talent on an annual basis and it’s backed up by the NFL Draft.

We’ve long known that the 2023 cycle was a banner year in Alabama and that remains the case. Eight prospects from the Yellowhammer State dot the top 100. This includes five-star defensive lineman James Smith who transferred to IMG Academy from Montgomery Carver. Five check-in within the top 27 – Smith, Tony Mitchell, Jahlil Hurley, Peter Woods and AJ Harris. Lebbeus Overton actually spent his freshman season in Alabama before his family moved to Georgia.

It’s also a very strong cycle early on in Louisiana, particularly the Baton Rouge area. Eight players from the Pelican State are within the top 100. Arch Manning and Shelton Sampson Jr. are five-stars, while Derek Williams (No. 30), linebacker Tackett Curtis (No. 52), quarterback Eli Holstein (No. 62), linebacker Jaiden Ausberry (No. 64), receiver Omarion Miller (No. 70), and cornerback Jordan Matthews (No. 96) round out the top 100.

There are also several other 2023 Louisiana prospects who could be knocking on the door with a strong fall season.

Deep bloodlines

There is a disproportionately high number of prospects within the 2023 top 100 with NFL connections. By our count, at least 11 within the top 100 have a father or grandfather who played in the NFL. Around 15 more have a father who played D-I football or basketball.

That group accounting for around one-fourth of the top 100 is significant. There certainly could be more. We’ve seen a bunch of NFL legacies become high draft picks in their own right recently. If the 2023 cycle is any indication, that trend will not slow down anytime soon.

Commitment check

Only 13 of the top 100 are currently committed. It should go without saying we’ll see that number spike over the next six months.

Oklahoma leads the way with three commitments. The Sooners have pledges from Malachi Nelson, receiver Makai Lemon and running back Treyaun Webb. Nelson and Lemon are teammates at Los Alamitos.

Georgia is up next with two commits. The Bulldogs have pledges from Marcus Washington and tight end Pearce Spurlin (No. 84).

Additionally, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida, Boston College and Georgia Tech have one commitment.