Arch Manning: On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine says Texas takes lead

Jeremy Crabtree04/21/22
On3 image
(Chad Simmons/On3)

The race to land Five-Star Plus+ quarterback Arch Manning – the nation’s No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2023 – has taken another twist.

According to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, the Texas Longhorns now lead in the battle to land Manning, the scion of one of America’s top sporting families and the star signal-caller out of New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman.

The Longhorns now have a 38.1% chance of landing Manning. Texas’ move to the top spot is a big development, but so is the shift in the second-place spot. Georgia is now second, according to the On3 RPM, with a 32.5% chance followed by Alabama at 27.2%.

The Crimson Tide had been in the No. 1 slot after he visited Tuscaloosa 19 days ago. Before the shift on Thursday, Alabama was listed by the On3 RPM with a 36.8% chance of landing Manning.

There’s also been another shift in the On3 RPM that’s linked with Manning’s recruitment. Alabama is now listed by the On3 RPM with an 81.3% chance of landing four-star quarterback Eli Holstein out of Zachary (La.) High.

Holstein’s recruitment – maybe more than any other quarterback in the class – is linked with Manning. Both have Alabama offers and could commit to the Crimson Tide. But neither has yet to pull the trigger.

Arch Manning focused on 3 schools

The eyes of the football world are on Arch Manning, the son of Cooper Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, and the grandson of Archie.

Manning has taken meaningful visits to Alabama, Georgia and Texas over the last six weeks and the battle is on between those three schools.

According to the latest intel from On3’s Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons, the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs all feel good about where they stand with Arch Manning.

“Depending on who you talk to, you hear it is a different two schools at the top,” Simmons reported three days ago. “The school I have heard the most about consistently is Alabama with Bill O’Brien being the leader in Manning’s recruitment. Not far behind though is his connection with Steve Sarkisian of Texas and Buster Faulkner at Georgia.

“Schools like FloridaLSU and Ole Miss have tried to stay in this race. But it is a three-team race. The question now is, when will Manning make his decision?”

Simmons also reported all three schools in the mix seem to be cautiously optimistic about their chances to land Manning.

What is the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine?

The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine was released to the public in December. The On3 engineering group teamed up with to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college.

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

Currently, there is only one expert prediction in Arch Manning’s recruitment. Eric Nahlin of On3’s Inside Texas logged a prediction for the Longhorns with a 70% confidence level in early March.

Arch Manning currently has an On3 NIL Valuation of $2.1 million. The On3 NIL Valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time. Manning ranks No. 1 in the High School Football NIL Rankings and fourth overall in the On3 NIL 100.