Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see massive shakeup after turbulent weekend

Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament is just 12 days away. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology to adjust for the latest wins and losses across the college basketball landscape.

Duke has won 17 of its last 18 games (including wins over No. 20/24 Louisville x2, No. 24 SMU, No. 20 Clemson, No. 1 Michigan, and No. 11 Virginia), propelling the Blue Devils to the projected No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology. They’re seeking a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season under head coach Jon Scheyer.

Meanwhile, other Power-Four teams such as Ohio State, Indiana, Auburn, and Texas A&M are simply vying for an opportunity to compete in the Big Dance. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for teams to improve their postseason standing. Before we dive into Lunardi’s official NCAA Tournament projections, let’s examine the tournament bubble.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: SMU, TCU, UCLA, Texas A&M
Last Four In: Santa Clara, Ohio State, New Mexico, Indiana
First Four Out: Auburn, San Diego State, VCU, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: USC, Cal, West Virginia, Cincinnati

West Region (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Tennessee State
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Navy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State

Although Arizona lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a 23-0 record, it has bounced back in a massive way with wins over No. 23 BYU, No. 2 Houston, No. 14 Kansas, and No. 6 Iowa State over the past two weeks. Arizona, which has clinched its first-ever Big 12 Regular Season Championship, has not been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2022.

Also featured in the West Region is No. 2 seed Illinois, which has now dropped four of its last six games after winning 12 consecutive games from Dec. 22-Feb. 4. No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Alabama, and No. 5 St. John’s round out the top five projected seeds in the West.

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Long Island/UMBC
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 USF
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas A&M
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Florida vs. No. 15 Merrimack

Since UConn took a shocking 91-84 home loss to .500 Creighton on Feb. 18, the Huskies have bounced back and won three consecutive Big East games to climb to the top of the conference. They are projected to be a No. 1 seed for the second time in the last three NCAA Tournaments. Strong wins against BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, and St. John’s have cemented UConn’s resume as one of the best in the country, although the Creighton loss was a Quad 3.

The joke has been made that whichever No. 1 seed gets Florida as its No. 2 seed in its Region would end up being the big loser of the Tournament. The blazing hot Gators are projected here, winners of nine consecutive games. Purdue, following its loss to Ohio State on Saturday, has slipped to the No. 3 seed line.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard/Bethune-Cookman
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 New Mexico/Indiana
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Texas
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Portland State

Michigan remains projected as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, sitting at 27-2 with two regular season games remaining. It was the projected No. 1 overall seed prior to its loss to Duke in Washington, D.C. The Wolverines can all but wrap up their first No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2021 with a win over No. 8 Michigan State in its regular season finale on Saturday.

Houston has slipped to the No. 2 seed line, which would mark the first year the Cougars failed to earn a No. 1 seed since 2022 (No. 5 seed). Projected No. 3 seed Nebraska is seeking its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory (previously 0-8), while No. 4 Virginia, No. 5 Vanderbilt, and No. 6 North Carolina (especially with a returning Caleb Wilson) remain potential sneaky teams to make a run in March.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Central Arkansas
No. 8 Saint Louis vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/Ohio State
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 TCU
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Wright State

Finally, the East Region rounds things out with No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 Iowa State, and No. 4 Gonzaga leading the way. The star power here is immense, featuring star freshmen Cameron Boozer (Duke) and Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville) along with likely All-Big Ten guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State) and two-time First Team All-WCC forward Graham Ike (Gonzaga).

The Region features three of the greatest coaches of all time (Tom Izzo, Mark Few, and Rick Barnes), along with two rising superstar head coaches in Jon Scheyer (Duke) and T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State). If this were the bracket, the East Region would certainly be one of the most exciting to tune into.