Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see shakeup after pivotal week

The latest ESPN bracketology is here as Joe Lunardi shook up his 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions with conference play rolling on. Conference play has provided some great contests and surprising results!

What lies below are the teams on the bubble, good and bad. Plus, we’ll dive into each region and break down the projected matchups.

We’re less than two months away from the tournament actually beginning, so the bracketology prediction will certainly change. Without further ado, let’s dive into the bubble teams first!

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA, Miami
Last Four In: USC, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Texas
First Four Out: Seton Hall, Indiana, Santa Clara, TCU
Next Four Out: Missouri, Stanford, Creighton, California

The Big Ten is well represented with bubble teams that are in right now! But Indiana is still on the outside looking in. Missouri and the rest of the next four out have some work to do if they want to improve their standing in bracketology.

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Utah State
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 USC/Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Ohio State
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Lipscomb

Arizona remains at the top of bracketology as they are undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Poll as well. Michigan State has been awesome this season and perhaps not enough are paying attention outside of the Big Ten. Tom Izzo and crew could easily win this region.

East (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 UT Martin
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 UCF
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 North Dakota State
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 New Mexico/Virginia Tech
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 Miami
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Navy

Duke claims the No. 1 seed in the East per the latest bracketology. They’d have an intriguing matchup with Iowa in the second round if the seeds hold. Arkansas and Kansas are also on that same side. Illinois is the favorite in their half of the region.

South (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Bethune Cookman/UMES
No. 8 SMU vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Florida Atlantic
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 San Diego State
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Winthrop
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 UT Arlington

The Huskies are the top seed in this part of bracketology. Nebraska is undefeated and are ranked top five in the latest AP Poll and will have a massive matchup with Michigan coming up. Watch out for Houston as they were moved down to a three-seed.

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Merrimack/Vermont
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 SF Austin
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 ETSU
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Wright State

Michigan will play Nebraska in that aforementioned top five game. That could certainly shift bracketology next week of course. Purdue and Iowa State are on the same side and defending champ Florida is lurking in this region too.