Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see shakeup after run of upsets

Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament is just 19 days away. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology to adjust for the latest wins and losses across the college basketball landscape.

Duke knocked off Michigan 68-63 in a No. 1 vs. No. 3 clash on Saturday in Washington D.C., which has led to the Blue Devils rising to the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology. They’re seeking a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season under head coach Jon Scheyer. Meanwhile, other Power-Four teams such as Missouri, TCU, Ohio State, USC, and California are simply vying for an opportunity to compete in the Big Dance.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for teams to improve their postseason standing. Before we dive into Lunardi’s official NCAA Tournament projections, let’s examine the tournament bubble.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas, UCLA, Auburn, Indiana
Last Four In: Missouri, Santa Clara, TCU, New Mexico
First Four Out: Ohio State, USC, California, San Diego State
Next Four Out: VCU, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, West Virginia

West Region (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 USF
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 7 NC State vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Merrimack

Although Arizona lost back-to-back games last week after opening the season with a 23-0 record, it bounced back in a massive way with wins over No. 23 BYU and No. 2 Houston. Arizona has not been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2022.

Also featured in the West Region is No. 2 seed Illinois, which has now dropped three of its last five games after winning 12 consecutive games from Dec. 22-Feb. 4. No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 4 Michigan State, and No. 5 Tennessee round out the top-five projected seeds in the West.

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 UMBC/Howard
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Saint Louis vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Navy
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Texas
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Portland State

Although UConn took a shocking 91-84 home loss to .500 Creighton last Wednesday, the Huskies are still projected to be a No. 1 seed for the second time in the last three NCAA Tournaments. Strong wins against BYU, Illinois, Kansas, and Florida make the Huskies’ resume one of the best in the country, although the Creighton loss was a Quad 3.

No. 3 seed Nebraska is projected in this Region, as it looks to win its first Tournament game in program history. No. 2 seed Houston, which sits at 23-5, remains in danger of not being a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2022 (No. 5 seed) after losing three consecutive games.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 SEMO/Bethune-Cookman
No. 8 SMU vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 TCU/New Mexico
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Wright State

Michigan is still projected as the No. 1 seed in the Tournament, sitting at 25-2 with four regular season games remaining. It was the No. 1 overall seed last week before its loss to Duke in Washington, D.C. Two of the Wolverines’ remaining four regular season games will be against Top 15-ranked opponents, No. 10 Illinois, and No. 13 Michigan State).

Iowa State, which racked up strong wins over No. 9 Kansas and No. 2 Houston last week, is still projected here as a No. 2 seed following a loss to No. 23 BYU on Saturday. Projected No. 3 seed Florida, which has won 12 of its last 13 games, would also be a popular pick to return to the Final Four.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Appalachian State
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 North Dakota State
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Missouri/Santa Clara
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Utah Tech

Finally, the East Region rounds things out with No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Kansas, and No. 4 Alabama leading the way. The star power here is immense, featuring star freshmen Cameron Boozer (Duke) and Darryn Peterson (Kansas) along with All-American guard Braden Smith (Purdue) and SEC Player of the Year candidate Labaron Philon (Alabama).

The Region features two of the biggest name-brand programs in the sport, along with the program that has dominated the SEC in the 2020s (Alabama). If this were the bracket, the East Region would certainly be one of the most exciting to tune into.