Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see shakeup after turbulent weekend

The latest ESPN bracketology is here as Joe Lunardi shook up his 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions with conference play rolling on. Conference play has provided some great contests and surprising results!

What lies below are the teams on the bubble, good and bad. Plus, we’ll dive into each region and break down the projected matchups.

We’re less than two months  away from the tournament actually beginning, so the bracketology prediction will certainly change. Without further ado, let’s dive into the bubble teams first!

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Auburn, Texas A&M, NC State, Seton Hall
Last Four In: USC, Ohio State, New Mexico, Texas
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Baylor, Santa Clara, UCLA
Next Four Out: Stanford, Indiana, Missouri, LSU

Seton Hall is a big riser in the last few weeks and firmly in the dance, according to the latest bracketology. Baylor, once a national champ a few years back, needs some work to do. Mick Cronin and UCLA are in the same boat as they are below the cut line.

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Navy
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 FAU
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Seton Hall
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Long Island

Arizona remained undefeated after the weekend and is the No. 1 seed out west, per bracketology. They’ll have a tough bracket with Alabama and Virginia on their side though. But how about the lower half? Michigan State, Iowa and Gonzaga all battling it out. Anyone can win!

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman/UMES
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Murray State
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 George Mason
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington
No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 USC/New Mexico
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 North Dakota State

Michigan leads the way in with the No. 1 seed in bracketology out in the Midwest. They’d certainly be the favorite in this quadrant, but defending champion Florida might have something to say about that. Not only that, Houston is in position to win its first national title under Kelvin Sampson.

South (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Vermont/Saint Peters
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Miami
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 SF Austin
No. 6 St. John’s vs. No. 11 Ohio State/Texas
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Winthrop
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 UT Martin

Dan Hurley and UConn would be set up nicely for a third national championship in four years if they are the No. 1 seed like in this bracketology. But, currently, undefeated Nebraska is in this region as well. Heck, let’s not forget about Iowa State on the bottom side and Kentucky facing down UConn in the second round!

East (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Utah Valley
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 San Diego State
No. 3 Vanderbilt vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 ETSU

Duke tops the region in the east per the latest bracketology. John Calipari and Arkansas are lurking on that same side of the bracket and could indeed make a run. Purdue seemingly has a good path down low as well and despite some recent losses from Vanderbilt, the Commodores have something cooking.