Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions shaken up after turbulent weekend

The NCAA Tournament is just over a month away. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology to adjust for the latest wins and losses across the college basketball landscape.

Arizona has suffered back-to-back losses, which has led to Michigan rising to the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology. The Wolverines have not been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2021. Meanwhile, other teams like UCLA, Santa Clara, TCU, and San Diego State are simply vying for an opportunity to compete in the Big Dance.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for teams to improve their postseason standing. Before we dive into Lunardi’s official NCAA Tournament projections, let’s examine the tournament bubble.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas A&M, UCF, Georgia, USC
Last Four In: UCLA, Santa Clara, TCU, San Diego State
First Four Out: Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico, Cal
Next Four Out: VCU, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, West Virginia

West Region (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Miami
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 USC
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Georgia
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Navy

Although Arizona has lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a 23-0 record, it remains a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi‘s Bracketology. One of the teams that knocked off the Wildcats, Texas Tech, is up to a No. 3 seed in the West Region. The Region also features two of the greatest coaches in college basketball history, Tom Izzo (Michigan State) and John Calipari (Arkansas). The last Final Four appearance from a team in this Region came in 2024, when Purdue fell to UConn in the National Championship Game.

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Appalachian State/Bethune-Cookman
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 USF
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Yale
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Wright State

UConn, winners of 20 of its last 21 games (lone loss vs. St. John’s), is projected to be a No. 1 seed for the second time in the last three NCAA Tournaments. Strong wins against BYU, Illinois, Kansas, and Florida make the Huskies’ resume one of the best in the country. No. 4 Nebraska is projected in this Region, as it looks to win its first Tournament game in program history. Houston, which sits at 23-3, remains in danger of not being a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2022 (No. 5 seed). At 25-0, Miami (OH) is also projected here and could be a popular upset pick, but going up against BYU and A.J. Dybansta would certainly be a tough draw.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard/NJIT
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 UCLA/San Diego State
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Cal Baptist
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State

Michigan is projected as the No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament, sitting at 24-1 with six regular season games remaining. Four of those six games will be against top-15 ranked opponents (No. 7 Purdue, No. 3 Duke, No. 10 Illinois, and No. 15 Michigan State), meaning the Wolverines could either wrap up a No. 1 seed or fall a seed-line or two down the stretch. Iowa State, fresh off strong back-to-back victories over No. 9 Kansas and No. 2 Houston, is also projected here as a No. 2 seed.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 UT Martin
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Texas
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 SF Austin
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/TCU
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Merrimack

Finally, the East Region rounds things out with No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Illinois, No. 3 Kansas, and No. 4 Alabama leading the way. The star power here is immense, featuring star freshmen Cameron Boozer (Duke), Keaton Wagler (Illinois), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), and Caleb Wilson (North Carolina). The Region features three of the biggest name-brand programs in the sport, along with the program that has dominated the SEC in the 2020s (Alabama). If this were the bracket, the East Region would certainly be the most exciting to tune into.