Bracketology: ESPN shakes up 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions after Week 6

The college basketball season should slow down over the next week, as the holiday season marks the final games of the non-conference schedule before league play will tip-off after New Year’s. Now, with that, we have one of our final updates to Bracketology from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi in 2025.

Lunardi posted that latest, weekly update to his projected field for the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Tuesday morning. It includes shifts up and down on seed lines from the top overall teams to the ones just inside or outside on the bubble for March Madness.

Then, as far as the conference breakdown, it’s pretty balanced around college ‘hoops. That’s as the Big Ten and SEC sit in tie with ten berths apiece, and the Big 12 and ACC sit in a tie with eight berths apiece before five from the Big East and two from the WCC.

Here was that update to Bracketology from Lunardi this morning on the eve of Christmas Eve:

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: UCF, Villanova, Miami, Indiana
Last Four In: Baylor, Ohio State, Butler, Oklahoma
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Boise State, California, Arizona State
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Virginia Tech, VCU, Wisconsin

The bubble for the 2026 NCAA Tournament saw multiple shifts in and out of the field today from Lunardi. That starts with the positives, with UCF, now at 10-1, and Villanova, now at 9-2 coming off key non-conference wins over Pittsburgh and Wisconsin, each up as well as Oklahoma too, with the Sooners being the Last Team In.

Then, trending down, Oklahoma State is of note as the First Team Out, with their only loss being to Oklahoma with that outcome being a key one in Bedlam. Other power conference teams trending down are then Miami, Indiana, Ohio State, Arizona State, and Virginia Tech, with the Buckeyes and Sun Devils coming off one loss, if not two, since the last edition from Lunardi.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (AQ) vs. 16. Lindenwood (AQ)/Long Island (AQ)
8. Georgia vs. 9. Seton Hall
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Butler/Oklahoma
4. Louisville vs. 13. William & Mary (AQ)
6. Iowa vs. 11. Tulsa
3. Houston vs. 14. Arkansas State (AQ)
7. USC vs. 10. Villanova
2. Vanderbilt (AQ) vs. 15. Northern Colorado (AQ)

Michigan has continued its dominance in remaining the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament for Lunardi. With their largest win of the season by margin in a 102-50 win over La Salle on Sunday, the Wolverines now sit at 11-0, winning by an average margin of 29.3 points while winning their past eight by an average margin of 34.3, with one game left in the non-conference before moving into the Big Ten.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, Vanderbilt, still undefeated at 12-0, following a 31-point win over Wake Forest, is up to a No. 2 seed, while Houston is also up, after a neutral-site, non-conference win over Arkansas, as a No. 4 seed and Iowa is up to a No. 6 seed. Louisville has then trended down to a No. 4 seed, coming off a road loss last week to Tennessee despite the absence of Mikel Brown, while Georgia is also down to a No. 8.

West (San José)

1. Arizona (AQ) vs. 16. Vermont (AQ)
8. Saint Mary’s vs. 9. SMU
5. Florida vs. 12. Utah Valley (AQ)
4. Nebraska vs. 13. Quinnipiac (AQ)
6. St. John’s vs. 11. Baylor/Ohio State
3. Michigan State vs. 14. St. Thomas (AQ)
7. Utah State (AQ) vs. 10. Miami
2. Gonzaga (AQ) vs. 15. New Mexico State (AQ)

Arizona, the No. 1 team in the country still in the AP Poll, then remained the second of the No. 1 seeds for Lunardi in the NCAA Tournament. That’s with the Wildcats having won three more since the last update, with the most notable being a 68-45 neutral-site win over San Diego State on Saturday, to be at 12-0.

The West Region then saw several teams trending downward in their portion of the bracket. Saint Mary’s was down to a No. 8, SMU down to a No. 9, Miami down to a No. 10, and then Ohio State down onto the bubble as a No. 11 following a one-point loss to North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic.

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Howard (AQ)/Grambling State (AQ)
8. UCLA vs. 9. NC State
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Akron (AQ)
4. Alabama vs. 13. Lipscomb (AQ)
6. Virginia vs. 11. Belmont (AQ)
3. BYU vs. 14. Hawaii (AQ)
7. Kentucky vs. 10. Saint Louis (AQ)
2. Purdue vs. 15. Stephen F. Austin (AQ)

Iowa State then also remained the third of the No. 1 overall seeds in the tournament for Lunardi. The Cyclones also, after a 31-point win on Sunday over Long Beach State, sit at 12-0, with one non-conference game left next week before entering play in the Big 12.

Unlike the last region, the South saw a lot of teams trend up, like Kentucky to a No. 7 after a win over St. John’s in the CBS Sports Classic, UCLA up to a No. 8, and NC State up to a No. 9 after a neutral-site win over Ole Miss. Alabama, though, was down to a No. 4 seed.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Connecticut (AQ) vs. 16. Colgate (AQ)
8. Clemson vs. 9. LSU
5. Tennessee vs. 12. Yale (AQ)
4. Illinois vs. 13. High Point (AQ)
6. Arkansas vs. 11. Indiana
3. Kansas vs. 14. Oakland (AQ)
7. Auburn vs. 10. Saint Louis
2. Duke (AQ) vs. 15. East Tennessee State (AQ)

After Duke blew a 17-point lead to lose their first game of the season to Texas Tech by one at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, Connecticut, coming off their first two conference wins in the Big East to be 12-1, has flipped past them as the last of the No. 1 seeds for Lunardi. He highlighted this race between the Huskies and Blue Devils, though, as a storyline to watch in what could end up being the East Region for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

From there, the East saw a ton of movement, with Kansas up to a No. 3, Tennesseeup to a No. 5, LSU up to a No. 9, and UCF on the bubble up to a No. 10. Arkansas, having lost to Houston in Newark, was then down to a No. 6, Auburn, having lost to Purdue by 28 in Indianapolis, is down to a No 7, and Indiana, still trying to find it again after having lost three of four to open December, is down on the bubble to a No. 11.