Bracketology: ESPN shakes up 2026 NCAA Tournament projections after Week 4 of college basketball

College basketball is through the first full week, with plenty of notable non-conference results still coming in, of December. With that, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has posted his latest edition of Bracketology.

Lunardi updated his weekly projection for the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Tuesday morning. That’s with a lot more to change with a month still until league play, and with just over three months still until Selection Sunday as the tip-off to March Madness.

Here was that updated field today as shared by Lunardi at ESPN:

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, NC State
Last Four In: Seton Hall, Villanova, VCU, UCF
First Four Out: Butler, LSU, Missouri, TCU
Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Colorado, Santa Clara, Wake Forest

The bubble continued to shift in this update from Lunardi. A lot of them were already on that bubble, though, with them just shifting spots from among the last eight in to the first eight out of the field for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

There was plenty of movement just around this section of the bracket on its own. That said, there is still plenty of these teams to improve their resumés, or make them worse, to get off the bubble one way or the other by March.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan vs. 16. Lindenwood/Norfolk State
8. Clemson vs. 9. Utah State
5. Tennessee vs. 12. Utah Valley
4. Kansas vs. 13. East Tennessee State
6. Virginia vs. 11. Yale
3. Alabama vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Nebraska vs. 10. NC State
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Colgate

Michigan remained the No. 1 overall seed for Lunardi. That’s as the Wolverines are still undefeated at 8-0, having won their last four over quality competition, with three games in the Players Era Festival and their last one to open their conference schedule against Rutgers, by an average margin of 37.8 points.

As for the Midwest Region, Virginia, coming off wins last week over Texas and Dayton, and Nebraska, still undefeated too coming off a win over Creighton, are both up respectively to a No. 6 and No. 7. Tennessee, having lost three straight now, is then down, as well as NC State, after another loss in their game as part of the ACC/SEC Challenge, who’s now down on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. Georgia vs. 9. Wisconsin
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Belmont
4. Illinois vs. 13. UNC Wilmington
6. USC vs. 11. Saint Louis
3. Vanderbilt vs. 14. Arkansas State
7. Iowa vs. 10. Baylor
2. Connecticut vs. 15. Stephen F. Austin

Duke has now moved up this week to being the second of the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament for Lunardi. The Blue Devils are on quite a win streak to reach that point too, as they’re now still undefeated at 10-0 overall as they followed up a win over Arkansas on Thanksgiving with wins last week over Florida in the ACC/SEC Challenge and then a win over Michigan State up in East Lansing.

The East Region then saw several teams move in an upward direction, with Illinois up to a No. 4 and Texas Tech up to a No. 5 after neutral-site victories over schools in the SEC, while, speaking of the Southeastern Conference, Vanderbilt is still undefeated to be up to a No. 3 while Georgia is up to a No. 8 after their respective wins in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Baylor is then the lone team here that’s notably down after a road loss at Memphis.

West (San José)

1. Arizona vs. 16. Vermont
8. Indiana vs. 9. Miami
5. Florida vs. 12. Villanova/UCF
4. North Carolina vs. 13. High Point
6. Arkansas vs. 11. Akron
3. Houston vs. 14. Hawaii
7. SMU vs. 10. Oklahoma State
2. Purdue vs. 15. Lipscomb

After that, Arizona is then the third of the No. 1 seeds in the tournament for Lunardi, as they’re now, as of yesterday, the No. 1 team in the country in the AP Poll. That’s as the Wildcats are undefeated as well as 8-0, with one of the best resumés to this point in the sport with neutral-site wins over Florida and UCLA, a road win at Connecticut, and a blowout win over Auburn on Saturday in Tucson.

The West Region then had a ton of movement, in starting with moves up as North Carolina is up to a No. 4 and Arkansas is up to a No. 6 after big, ranked wins in the ACC/SEC Challenge and as SMU went up to a No. 7 after an overtime win over Texas A&M. Two of the better recent brands in college basketball are then down, with Purdue falling from a No. 1 to a No. 2, after losing at home by 23, and Houston also falling from a No. 2 to a No. 3.

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Southern/Long Island
8. UCLA vs. 9. Kentucky
5. St. John’s vs. 12. Tulsa
4. Louisville vs. 13. Liberty
6. Auburn vs. 11. Seton Hall/VCU
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Siena
7. Saint Mary’s vs. 10. Ohio State
2. BYU vs. 15. North Dakota State

Iowa State then made a major jump from a No. 3 to the last of the No. 1 seeds now for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That’s as the Cyclones, still undefeated at 9-0, got a huge road win over the Boilermakers that Lunardi says may have just “change(d) the trajectory” of their entire year in Ames.

Downward trends after disappointing losses then defined the rest of the bracket here in the South Region. Louisville was down to a No. 4 with their first loss of the season to Arkansas in the ACC/SEC Challenge despite following it up with a win this weekend over Indiana, Auburn is down to a No. 6 after that near 30-point loss to Arizona, and Kentucky is all the way down to a No. 9 with an 0-2 week where the Wildcats lost at home to North Carolina in the ACC/SEC Challenge and then by 35 points to Gonzaga in Nashville on Friday night.