CBS Sports expert gives six-pack of Week 11 college football predictions

On Thursday, CBS Sports college football expert Tom Fornelli released six predictions against the spread ahead of Week 11 of the college football season. His picks this week feature a pair of top 25 matchups in the Big Ten and Big 12, as well as a couple of AAC games for good measure.

After finishing 4-2 with his picks in Week 10, Fornelli is 37-23 overall.

No. 8 Oklahoma (-5.5) at No. 13 Baylor

The Sooners are entering their most challenging stretch of the season, with games against Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State to close things out. True freshman quarterback Caleb Williams has given new life to the Oklahoma offense, but struggled early on in his last road game against Kansas. Even if he runs into a similarly slow start, the Sooners have enough talent to overcome.

“Fortunately, we don’t need Oklahoma to blow out Baylor,” Fornelli wrote. “Winning by a touchdown will do just fine and it can do that.”

Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Baylor 27 | Oklahoma -5.5

No. 19 Purdue (+21) at No. 4 Ohio State

Ohio State has been one of the best teams in college football of late. But if you look at the past couple of weeks, it hasn’t blown out its opponents. Purdue has already notched victories against Iowa and Michigan State, both of which were top five teams at the time. Although the Boilermakers might not have another upset in them, don’t expect them to get rolled either, making this one of the easiest Week 11 college football predictions.

“There’s no reason for a team as talented as the Buckeyes to rank 42nd nationally in red zone efficiency, but they do, and Purdue’s defense ranks 15th in red zone efficiency,” Fornelli wrote. “Purdue’s defense also ranks ninth in pressure rate and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud has looked shaky when pressured. Don’t get me wrong, Ohio State is the better team, but it isn’t blowing the doors off this Boilermakers squad often enough to lay the points.”

Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 38, Purdue 20 | Purdue +21

Boston College (+1) at Georgia Tech

Boston College is coming off of its first conference victory of the year, which just so happened to coincide with the return of quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The Eagles will look to keeps things rolling on the road against a mediocre Georgia Tech team.

“Georgia Tech doesn’t do anything particularly well,” Fornelli wrote. “Offensively, the Yellow Jackets rank 98th nationally in success rate, 74th in points per possession and 118th in red zone touchdown rate. Defensively, they rank 86th in success rate, 88th in points per possession, and 63rd in red zone efficiency. That’s not the makings of a team I’m looking to rely on as a favorite.”

Final Score Prediction: Boston College 27, Georgia Tech 24 | Boston College +1

Tulsa at Tulane (Under 55.5)

This game isn’t likely to generate much excitement, but it could be a good one to bet on. The teams enter with a combined 4-14 record and with a pair of pitiful offenses. Tulane ranks just 78th in points per possession (2.07), while Tulsa is even worse at 102nd (1.76).

“It’s those struggles that make me more confident to take the under even though these are two bad defenses, too,” Fornelli wrote. “When I look at how these two teams struggle to finish drives, I have a hard time seeing them creep past this total.”

Final Score Prediction: Tulane 27, Tulsa 24 | Under 55.5

South Carolina (-1) at Missouri

The Gamecocks looked absolutely dominant in a 40-17 victory against Florida this past week. They run into a Missouri team that ranks above only Vanderbilt in the SEC standings. There’s no reason to think they shouldn’t handle business and become bowl eligible on Saturday.

Any stat you can find about defense, be it traditional or advanced, tells you Missouri can’t stop anybody,” Fornelli wrote. “A team that can’t stop anybody isn’t a team you want to bet on, especially when it’s paired with an inefficient offense.”

Final Score Prediction: South Carolina 31, Missouri 28 | South Carolina -1

Houston (-24.5) at Temple

It seems pretty risky to bet on a team favored as heavily as Houston, but this move is more about Temple. The Owls have lost by more than 40 points in three of their past four games, and the fourth was a 34-14 drubbing against South Florida. It’s not exactly unlikely that Houston, tied for first place in the AAC with Cincinnati, hands them another beating.

“This team seems to have let go of the rope and isn’t interested in trying to pick it back up,” Fornelli wrote. “Maybe it rallies this week against a Houston team still fighting for a conference title, but probably not.”

Final Score Prediction: Houston 45, Temple 10 | Houston -24.5