A quick breakdown of the conference championship games
It’s “Championship Week,” so here’s a quick look at all the conference championship games this weekend other than the SEC showdown. The Alabama-Georgia matchup in the SEC Championship Game is our game of the week; you can read about that game here.
The fun and frivolity begins tonight with two games, then starts up again Saturday at noon. So hunker down and enjoy the weekend; then sit back and the four-team College Football Playoff field will be unveiled Sunday,.
AAC
No. 21 Houston (11-1) at No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0)
Time/TV: 4 p.m. Saturday, ABC; Joe Tessitore play-by-play, Greg McElroy analyst
The line: Cincinnati by 10.5
The skinny: Houston comes in on an 11-game winning streak, and the Cougars’ stout defense could make things interesting. Houston’s offense is nothing special, though, and it will be going up against a Cincinnati defense that has been quite good. The Bearcats are third nationally in yards-per-play defense, allowing 4.29 yards per play; Houston is tied for ninth in that same category, allowing 4.66 yards per play. A College Football Playoff berth is in play for Cincinnati, which is trying to become the first Group of 5 program to make the four-team field.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Cincinnati 20-14; Ivan Maisel: Cincinnati 28-24; Charles Power: Cincinnati 28-17; Matt Zenitz: Houston 27-24.
ACC
No. 15 Pitt (10-2) vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (10-2)
Site: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Time/TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, ABC; Mark Jones play-by-play, Robert Griffin III analyst
The line: Pitt by 3
The skinny: Ahh, yes, this is what everyone expected when the season began: Pitt playing Wake for the ACC championship. Both have high-level quarterbacks — Kenny Pickett for Pitt, Sam Hartman for Wake — and defenses that have been inconsistent. This has the earmarks of a shootout. These teams are third (Wake Forest, 42.9 points per game) and fourth (Pitt, 42.8 ppg) nationally in scoring offense. Wake has scored at least 35 points in every game but one, and the Demon Deacons have scored at least 40 eight times. Pitt, meanwhile, has scored at least 30 in 10 games, at least 40 in seven and at least 50 four times.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Pitt 41-37; Ivan Maisel: Pitt 48-45; Charles Power: Wake Forest 48-45; Matt Zenitz: Pitt 45-34.
BIG TEN
No. 13 Iowa (10-2) vs. No. 2 Michigan (11-1)
Site: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Time/TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Fox; Gus Johnson play-by-play, Joel Klatt analyst
The line: Michigan by 11
The skinny: Iowa started out hot, faded a bit, then righted itself; then it got some help from Minnesota and — voila! — the Hawkeyes are playing for the Big Ten championship. Their defense would seem to give them a shot, especially if Michigan has any kind of a letdown after its emotional win over Ohio State. But Michigan is the better team and Iowa’s offense is so pedestrian that it would be shocking if the Wolverines lost. Iowa is 123rd nationally in total offense (299.1 yards per game) and 121st in yards per play (4.60). But the Hawkeyes feast on turnovers; they have a plus-13 turnover margin and lead the nation with 22 interceptions.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Michigan 24-9; Ivan Maisel: Michigan 34-17; Charles Power: Michigan 38-13; Matt Zenitz: Michigan 27-13.
BIG 12
No. 9 Baylor (10-2) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1)
Site: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Time/TV: Noon, ABC; Sean McDonough play-by-play, Todd Blackledge analyst
The line: Oklahoma State by 5.5
The skinny: A rematch of a game Oklahoma State won 24-14 on October 2; Baylor managed just 280 total yards in the loss. The health of Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is a big storyline; he missed the regular-season finale with a hamstring injury, and if he can’t go or is hampered, redshirt freshman Blake Shapen will be the guy. Regardless, RB Abram Smith is Baylor’s key offensive player and the Cowboys can’t let him run wild. Both teams have top-flight defenses, with Cowboys LB Malcolm Rodriguez and Bears S Jalen Pitre the guys to keep a close eye on. Oklahoma State is another team in danger of a letdown after an emotional win, and Baylor is better than Iowa. Still, a College Football Playoff berth seems a distinct possibility if Oklahoma State wins.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Oklahoma State 21-17; Ivan Maisel: Baylor 21-20; Charles Power: Oklahoma State 31-17; Matt Zenitz: Oklahoma State 24-20.
CONFERENCE USA
Western Kentucky (8-4) at UTSA (11-1)
Time/TV: 7 p.m. Friday, CBS Sports Network; Rich Waltz play-by-play, Aaron Taylor analyst
The line: Western Kentucky by 3.5
The skinny: This is a rematch of a game UTSA won 52-46 on October 9. UTSA is coming off its first loss of the season, a 45-23 setback to a North Texas team that had been 5-6. Western, meanwhile, has won seven in a row and leads the nation in passing (422.3 yards per game) and TD passes (53, eight shy of the NCAA single-season record set by LSU in 2019). In the first meeting, Western QB Bailey Zappe threw for 523 yards and five TDs. But UTSA’s Frank Harris threw for 372 and seven TDs. Western has scored at least 31 points in every game this season, has scored at least 50 three times and at least 40 eight times, including five games in a row. UTSA draws well at the Alamodome, and a sellout crowd of more than 35,000 is possible.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: UTSA 48-42; Ivan Maisel: Western 27-24; Charles Power: Western 38-31; Matt Zenitz: Western 42-38.
MID-AMERICAN
Kent State (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)
Site: Ford Field, Detroit
Time/TV: Noon Saturday, ESPN; Jason Benetti play-by-play, Andre Ware analyst
The line: Kent State by 3
The skinny: This is a rematch of a game Kent State won 52-47 on November 3. The Golden Flashes rolled up 682 yards of offense in the win, one of four games this season in which they had at least 600 yards. But Kent State is last in the league and 124th nationally in total defense (475.0 yards per game). NIU is used to tight games: The Huskies have played nine one-score games this season. Kent State is looking for its first MAC title since 1972, when Don James was coach and Nick Saban a starting defensive back.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Kent State 41-35; Ivan Maisel: NIU 21-17; Charles Power: Kent State 42-38; Matt Zenitz: NIU 35-31.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Utah State (9-3) at No. 19 San Diego State (11-1)
Time/TV: 3 p.m. Saturday, Fox; Joe Davis play-by-play, Brock Huard analyst
The line: San Diego State by 6
The skinny: Utah State was 1-5 last season, and new coach Blake Anderson has overseen an impressive one-season turnaround. Aggies WR Deven Thompkins leads the nation with 128.6 receiving yards per game. San Diego State has been excellent defensively, ranking 11th nationally in total defense (314.2 yards per game), ninth in scoring defense (17.3 points per game), seventh in yards-per-play defense (4.56) and sixth in interceptions (15). The Aztecs aren’t anything special offensively, though they did get their rushing attack cranked up down the stretch. Aztecs DE Cameron Thomas is third nationally with 20 tackles for loss and 12th with 10.5 sacks. As a team, Utah State is third in the nation with 98 tackles for loss.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: San Diego State 24-14; Ivan Maisel: San Diego State 34-21; Charles Power: San Diego State 35-10; Matt Zenitz: San Diego State 24-20.
PAC-12
No. 10 Oregon (10-2) vs. No. 13 Utah (9-3)
Site: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Time/TV: Friday 8 p.m., ABC; Chris Fowler play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit analyst
The line: Utah by 2.5
The skinny: This is a rematch from just two weeks ago, when the Utes hammered the Ducks 38-7. Utah shut down Oregon’s rushing attack and won easily. Both teams have similar MOs: They want to rely on their ground game and their defense. Utes RB Tavion Thomas, who began his college career at Cincinnati, leads the league with 18 rushing touchdowns, an impressive total considering he missed one game in November and had just 21 total attempts in September. Two potential All-Americans will be on view defensively: Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux and Utah LB Devin Lloyd (second nationally with 22 tackles for loss). The Utes are aiming for their first Pac-12 title and first appearance in the Rose Bowl. Oregon routed Utah in the 2019 title game, and the Utes lost to Washington for the 2015 championship.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Oregon 24-20; Ivan Maisel: Utah 27-17; Charles Power: Utah 28-17; Matt Zenitz: Utah 34-30.
SUN BELT
Appalachian State (10-2) at No. 24 Louisiana (11-1)
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN; Dave Pasch play-by-play, Dusty Dvoracek analyst
The line: Appalachian State by 3
The skinny: Yet another rematch. The Ragin’ Cajuns routed the Mountaineers 41-13 on October 12. App State committed four turnovers, gained just 211 yards and was 0-of-11 on third down that night. Louisiana owns a plus-12 turnover margin, fifth-best nationally, and App State QB Chase Brice has tossed 10 interceptions. The Mountaineers’ top receiver is Corey Sutton, and he had his worst game of the season (two receptions) in the earlier loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns. This will be the final game for Louisiana coach Billy Napier, who already has been announced as Florida’s new coach. This is the third Sun Belt title game — and the third time App State has met Louisiana for the championship.
On3 predictions: Mike Huguenin: Louisiana 27-23; Ivan Maisel: App State 24-22; Charles Power: Louisiana 31-24; Matt Zenitz: Louisiana 30-27.