College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 14

The latest College Football Playoff bubble watch from ESPN’s Heather Dinich was released ahead of the latest rankings reveal. It’s time to look at who’s in and who’s out.

Dinich did so in her weekly article that she posted on Tuesday morning. It broke down each conference in the Power Four, as well as Notre Dame among the independents and those from the Group of Five, into categories, with few teams ‘still in the mix’ or better in their standing at this point as far as the College Football Playoff.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the latest bubble watch from Dinich. We’ll start in the SEC.

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Still in the mix: Texas
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Five teams from the SEC are in the College Football Playoff right now. It just remains to be seen if the committee will penalize Ole Miss for losing head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. Texas is the only other team in the mix, despite being 9-3. Their wins are high quality, as well as a good loss to Ohio State. But a loss to 4-8 Florida looms large.

As far as a team like Vanderbilt that is 10-2, they are out per Dinich. Losses to Texas and Alabama are quality, but there’s unfortunately not enough room based on the current rankings.

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Still in the mix: None
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

The Big Ten will get three teams into the College Football Playoff. No one else is in the mix as the top three are the only ones with double digit wins. Ohio State and Indiana will square off for the conference title and the No. 1 seed. Both might still get byes regardless of the result and Oregon could be in line for a home game in the first round.

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech
Still in the mix: BYU
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia

The Big 12 is bound to only get one, maybe two teams into the College Football Playoff. Win or lose, it seems like Texas Tech will get in per Dinich. They already beat BYU once.

For BYU, at 11-1, they have to beat Texas Tech in a rematch for the conference crown. It’ll get them both in, but it seems like the Cougars won’t have enough at-large juice to get in with two losses to the Red Raiders.

ACC

Would be in: TBD (Virginia vs. Duke for ACC title)
Still in the mix: Miami
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

The ACC is probably only getting one team in, if we’re being realistic. Yes, Miami is still in the mix as an at-large, but due to tiebreakers, they are not playing in the conference championship game.

Virginia will make the College Football Playoff if they beat Duke. Will Duke get in if they win the ACC? They’ll have to be ranked against the next best Group of Five team because the five highest ranked conference champs are guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. Could a Power Four be left out? Even as ACC champs, Duke would rank behind an at-large Miami, go figure.

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame

As the rankings dictate right now, Notre Dame is back in the College Football Playoff. Winners of 10 in a row, they look like a team that could make a run again.

With Heisman contender Jeremiyah Love in the backfield, there is star power here too. The biggest question the CFP committee has to answer is Notre Dame above Miami despite losing head to head to the Hurricanes. So far, yes.

Group of Five

Would be in: Tulane
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas

Tulane is the G5 rep in the College Football Playoff as of now if they win the American Conference title. Jon Sumrall, despite going to Florida, will finish out the season. North Texas can get in if they beat Tulane.

James Madison is the big one here. If Duke wins the ACC, it opens up potentially two spots for the Group of Five. Also, if North Texas beats Tulane, as well as James Madison is a conference champ, who ranks higher in the end?

Projected Bracket

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State